Bench-to-bedside review: The importance of the precision of the reference technique in method comparison studies - with specific reference to the measurement of cardiac output

Bland-Altman analysis is used for assessing agreement between two measurements of the same clinical variable. In the field of cardiac output monitoring, its results, in terms of bias and limits of agreement, are often difficult to interpret, leading clinicians to use a cutoff of 30% in the percentage error in order to decide whether a new technique may be considered a good alternative. This percentage error of ± 30% arises from the assumption that the commonly used reference technique, intermittent thermodilution, has a precision of ± 20% or less. The combination of two precisions of ± 20% equates to a total error of ± 28.3%, which is commonly rounded up to ± 30%. Thus, finding a percentage error of less than ± 30% should equate to the new tested technique having an error similar to the reference, which therefore should be acceptable. In a worked example in this paper, we discuss the limitations of this approach, in particular in regard to the situation in which the reference technique may be either more or less precise than would normally be expected. This can lead to inappropriate conclusions being drawn from data acquired in validation studies of new monitoring technologies. We conclude that it is not acceptable to present comparison studies quoting percentage error as an acceptability criteria without reporting the precision of the reference technique

Elective Open Suprarenal Aneurysm Repair in England from 2000 to 2010 an Observational Study of Hospital Episode Statistics

Background: Open surgery is widely used as a benchmark for the results of fenestrated endovascular repair of complex abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA). However, the existing evidence stems from single-centre experiences, and may not be reproducible in wider practice. National outcomes provide valuable information regarding the safety of suprarenal aneurysm repair. Methods: Demographic and clinical data were extracted from English Hospital Episodes Statistics for patients undergoing elective suprarenal aneurysm repair from 1 April 2000 to 31 March 2010. Thirty-day mortality and five-year survival were analysed by logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards modeling. Results: 793 patients underwent surgery with 14% overall 30-day mortality, which did not improve over the study period. Independent predictors of 30-day mortality included age, renal disease and previous myocardial infarction. 5-year survival was independently reduced by age, renal disease, liver disease, chronic pulmonary disease, and known metastatic solid tumour. There was significant regional variation in both 30-day mortality and 5-year survival after risk-adjustment. Regional differences in outcome were eliminated in a sensitivity analysis for perioperative outcome, conducted by restricting analysis to survivors of the first 30 days after surgery. Conclusions: Elective suprarenal aneurysm repair was associated with considerable mortality and significant regional variation across England. These data provide a benchmark to assess the efficacy of complex endovascular repair of supra-renal aneurysms, though cautious interpretation is required due to the lack of information regarding aneurysm morphology. More detailed study is required, ideally through the mandatory submission of data to a national registry of suprarenal aneurysm repair

Monitoring clinical quality in rare disease services – experience in England

After some well-publicised problems with paediatric cardiac surgery, there has been great interest in England in monitoring clinical quality in specialised medical services. The National Commissioning Group plans, funds and monitors a set of highly specialised services for the National Health Service in England. We have developed systems for monitoring clinical quality that perform two interrelated but distinct functions: performance measurement and performance improvement. The aim is to collect information on all patients seen during each year – a 100% consecutive case series. Generally, there is no conceptual difficulty identifying an appropriate outcome for surgical interventions: the indication for surgery usually defines the outcome to monitor. This is not so for the medical and psychiatric services, where the relevant outcome to monitor is sometimes not obvious. There are a number of problems in interpreting, and acting on, outcome data for rare conditions and treatments. These problems include statistical problems due to small numbers, the need to risk adjust data and coding problems

Air pollution and the incidence of ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke in the South London Stroke Register: a case-cross-over analysis.

BACKGROUND: Few European studies investigating associations between short-term exposure to air pollution and incident stroke have considered stroke subtypes. Using information from the South London Stroke Register for 2005-2012, we investigated associations between daily concentrations of gaseous and particulate air pollutants and incident stroke subtypes in an ethnically diverse area of London, UK. METHODS: Modelled daily pollutant concentrations based on a combination of measurements and dispersion modelling were linked at postcode level to incident stroke events stratified by haemorrhagic and ischaemic subtypes. The data were analysed using a time-stratified case-cross-over approach. Conditional logistic regression models included natural cubic splines for daily mean temperature and daily mean relative humidity, a binary term for public holidays and a sine-cosine annual cycle. Of primary interest were same day mean concentrations of particulate matter <2.5 and <10 µm in diameter (PM2.5, PM10), ozone (O3), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and NO2+nitrogen oxide (NOX). RESULTS: Our analysis was based on 1758 incident strokes (1311 were ischaemic and 256 were haemorrhagic). We found no evidence of an association between all stroke or ischaemic stroke and same day exposure to PM2.5, PM10, O3, NO2 or NOX. For haemorrhagic stroke, we found a negative association with PM10 suggestive of a 14.6% (95% CI 0.7% to 26.5%) fall in risk per 10 µg/m(3) increase in pollutant. CONCLUSIONS: Using data from the South London Stroke Register, we found no evidence of a positive association between outdoor air pollution and incident stroke or its subtypes. These results, though in contrast to recent meta-analyses, are not inconsistent with the mixed findings of other UK studies

Estimation of Short-Term Effects of Air Pollution on Stroke Hospital Admissions in Wuhan, China

Background and Objective:High concentrations of air pollutants have been linked to increased incidence of stroke in North America and Europe but not yet assessed in mainland China. The aim of this study is to evaluate the association between stroke hospitalization and short-term elevation of air pollutants in Wuhan, China.Methods:Daily mean NO2, SO2 and PM10 levels, temperature and humidity were obtained from 2006 through 2008. Data on stroke hospitalizations (ICD 10: I60-I69) at four hospitals in Wuhan were obtained for the same period. A time-stratified case-crossover design was performed by season (April-September and October-March) to assess effects of pollutants on stroke hospital admissions.Results:Pollution levels were higher in October-March with averages of 136.1 μg/m3 for PM10, 63.6 μg/m3 for NO2 and 71.0 μg/m3 for SO2 than in April-September when averages were 102.0 μg/m3, 41.7 μg/m3 and 41.7 μg/m3, respectively (p<.001). During the cold season, every 10 μg/m3 increase in NO2 was associated with a 2.9% (95%C.I. 1.2%-4.6%) increase in stroke admissions on the same day. Every 10 ug/m3 increase in PM10 daily concentration was significantly associated with an approximate 1% (95% C.I. 0.1%-1.4%) increase in stroke hospitalization. A two-pollutant model indicated that NO2 was associated with stroke admissions when controlling for PM10. During the warm season, no significant associations were noted for any of the pollutants.Conclusions:Exposure to NO2 is significantly associated with stroke hospitalizations during the cold season in Wuhan, China when pollution levels are 50% greater than in the warm season. Larger and multi-center studies in Chinese cities are warranted to validate our findings. © 2013 Xiang et al

Particulate air pollution and chronic ischemic heart disease in the eastern United States: a county level ecological study using satellite aerosol data

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>There are several known factors that cause ischemic heart disease. However, the part played by air pollution still remains something of a mystery. Recent attention has focused on the chronic effect of particulate matter on heart disease. Satellite-derived aerosol optical depth (AOD) was found to be correlated with <it>PM</it>_2.5in the eastern US. The objective of this study was to examine if there is an association between aerosol air pollution as indicated by AOD and chronic ischemic heart disease (CIHD) in the eastern US.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>An ecological geographic study method was employed. Race and age standardized mortality rate (SMR) of CIHD was computed for each of the 2306 counties for the time period 2003–2004. A mean AOD raster grid for the same period was derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) aerosol data and the average AOD was calculated for each county. A bivariate Moran's I scatter plot, a map of local indicator of spatial association (LISA) clusters, and three regression models (ordinary least square, spatial lag, and spatial error) were used to analyze the relationship between AOD and CIHD SMR.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The global Moran's I value is 0.2673 (<it>p </it>= 0.001), indicating an overall positive spatial correlation of CIHD SMR and AOD. The entire study area is dominated by spatial clusters of AOD against SMR (high AOD and high SMR in the east, and low AOD and low SMR in the west) (permutations = 999, <it>p </it>= 0.05). Of the three regression models, the spatial error model achieved the best fit (R²= 0.28). The effect of AOD is positive and significant (beta = 0.7774, p = 0.01).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Aerosol particle pollution has adverse effect on CIHD mortality risk in the eastern US. High risk of CIHD mortality was found in areas with elevated levels of outdoor aerosol air pollution as indicated by satellite derived AOD. The evidence of the association would support targeting of policy interventions on such areas to reduce air pollution levels. Remote sensing AOD data could be used as an alternative health-related indictor of air quality.</p

Research activity and the association with mortality.

INTRODUCTION: The aims of this study were to describe the key features of acute NHS Trusts with different levels of research activity and to investigate associations between research activity and clinical outcomes. METHODS: National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Comprehensive Clinical Research Network (CCRN) funding and number of patients recruited to NIHR Clinical Research Network (CRN) portfolio studies for each NHS Trusts were used as markers of research activity. Patient-level data for adult non-elective admissions were extracted from the English Hospital Episode Statistics (2005-10). Risk-adjusted mortality associations between Trust structures, research activity and, clinical outcomes were investigated. RESULTS: Low mortality Trusts received greater levels of funding and recruited more patients adjusted for size of Trust (n = 35, 2,349 £/bed [95% CI 1,855-2,843], 5.9 patients/bed [2.7-9.0]) than Trusts with expected (n = 63, 1,110 £/bed, [864-1,357] p<0.0001, 2.6 patients/bed [1.7-3.5] p<0.0169) or, high (n = 42, 930 £/bed [683-1,177] p = 0.0001, 1.8 patients/bed [1.4-2.1] p<0.0005) mortality rates. The most research active Trusts were those with more doctors, nurses, critical care beds, operating theatres and, made greater use of radiology. Multifactorial analysis demonstrated better survival in the top funding and patient recruitment tertiles (lowest vs. highest (odds ratio & 95% CI: funding 1.050 [1.033-1.068] p<0.0001, recruitment 1.069 [1.052-1.086] p<0.0001), middle vs. highest (funding 1.040 [1.024-1.055] p<0.0001, recruitment 1.085 [1.070-1.100] p<0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Research active Trusts appear to have key differences in composition than less research active Trusts. Research active Trusts had lower risk-adjusted mortality for acute admissions, which persisted after adjustment for staffing and other structural factors

Cardiovascular diseases and air pollution in Novi Sad, Serbia

Objectives: A large body of evidence has documented that air pollutants have adverse effect on human health as well as on the environment. The aim of this study was to determine whether there was an association between outdoor concentrations of sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and a daily number of hospital admissions due to cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in Novi Sad, Serbia among patients aged above 18. Material and Methods: The investigation was carried out during over a 3-year period (from January 1, 2007 to December 31, 2009) in the area of Novi Sad. The number (N = 10 469) of daily CVD (ICD-10: I00-I99) hospital admissions was collected according to patients' addresses. Daily mean levels of NO2 and SO2, measured in the ambient air of Novi Sad via a network of fixed samplers, have been used to put forward outdoor air pollution. Associations between air pollutants and hospital admissions were firstly analyzed by the use of the linear regression in a single polluted model, and then trough a single and multi-polluted adjusted generalized linear Poisson model. Results: The single polluted model (without confounding factors) indicated that there was a linear increase in the number of hospital admissions due to CVD in relation to the linear increase in concentrations of SO2 (p = 0.015; 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 0.144-1.329, R2 = 0.005) and NO2 (p = 0.007; 95% CI: 0.214-1.361, R2 = 0.007). However, the single and multi-polluted adjusted models revealed that only NO2 was associated with the CVD (p = 0.016, relative risk (RR) = 1.049, 95% CI: 1.009-1.091 and p = 0.022, RR = 1.047, 95% CI: 1.007-1.089, respectively). Conclusions: This study shows a significant positive association between hospital admissions due to CVD and outdoor NO2 concentrations in the area of Novi Sad, Serbia