Identifying Target Populations for Screening or Not Screening Using Logic Regression

Colorectal cancer remains a significant public health concern despite the fact that effective screening procedures exist and that the disease is treatable when detected at early stages. Numerous risk factors for colon cancer have been identified, but none are very predictive alone. We sought to determine whether there are certain combinations of risk factors that distinguish well between cases and controls, and that could be used to identify subjects at particularly high or low risk of the disease to target screening. Using data from the Seattle site of the Colorectal Cancer Family Registry (C-CFR), we fit logic regression models to combine risk factor information. Logic regression is a methodology that identifies subsets of the population, described by Boolean combinations of binary coded risk factors. This method is well suited to situations in which interactions between many variables result in differences in disease risk. Neither the logic regression models nor stepwise logistic regression models fit for comparison resulted in criteria that could be used to direct subjects to screening. However, we believe that our novel statistical approach could be useful in settings where risk factors do discriminate between cases and controls, and illustrate this with a simulated dataset

Cadmium exposure and cancer mortality in the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey cohort.

Objective This study examined prospective data from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III) cohort to investigate the relationship between cadmium exposure and cancer mortality, and the specific cancers associated with cadmium exposure, in the general population. Methods Vital status and cause of death through 31 December 2006 were obtained by the National Center for Health Statistics for NHANES III participants. The cadmium concentration of spot urine samples was measured and corrected for urine creatinine (uCd). Weighted Cox proportional hazards regression with age as the time metric was applied to estimate sex-specific adjusted HRs (aHRs) of mortality associated with uCd for all cancers and the cancers responsible for the most deaths in the USA. Estimates were stratified by smoking history and adjusted for education, body mass index and race. Results uCd was associated with cancer mortality (aHR per twofold higher uCd (95% CI), men: 1.26 (1.07 to 1.48); women: 1.21 (1.04 to 1.42)). In men, mortality from lung cancer, pancreatic cancer and non-Hodgkin lymphoma was associated with uCd; an association with leukaemia mortality was suggested. In women, associations were suggested with mortality due to lung cancer, leukaemia, ovarian and uterine cancer, but evidence was weaker than in men. Conclusions Cadmium appears to be associated with overall cancer mortality in men and women, but the specific cancers associated differ between men and women, suggesting avenues for future research. Limitations of the study include the possibility of uncontrolled confounding by cigarette smoking or other factors, and the limited number of deaths due to some cancers

Infectious agents and colorectal cancer: a review of Helicobacter pylori, Streptococcus bovis, JC virus, and human papillomavirus.

Based on the high volume of bacteria and viruses that the intestine is exposed to and the importance of infectious agents in some gastrointestinal and anogenital cancers, it is not surprising the many studies have evaluated the association between colorectal cancer and infectious agents. This review highlights investigations of four agents in relation to colorectal cancer. Helicobacter pylori, Streptococcus bovis, JC virus, and human papillomavirus have all been evaluated as possible etiologic agents for colorectal cancer. For each of these agents, a review of possible mechanisms for carcinogenesis and epidemiologic evidence is discussed, and future directions for research are proposed

Limitations of the Odds Ratio in Gauging the Performance of a Diagnostic or Prognostic Marker

A marker that is strongly associated with outcome (or disease) is often assumed to be effective for classifying individuals according to their current or future outcome. However, for this to be true, the associated odds ratio must be of a magnitude rarely seen in epidemiological studies. An illustration of the relationship between odds ratios and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves shows, for example, that a marker with an odds ratio as high as 3 is in fact a very poor classification tool. If a marker identifies 10 percent of controls as positive (false positives) and has an odds ratio of 3, then it will only correctly identify 25 percent of cases as positive (true positives). Moreover, the authors illustrate that a single measure of association such as an odds ratio does not meaningfully describe a marker’s ability to classify subjects. Appropriate statistical methods for assessing and reporting the classification power of a marker are described. The serious pitfalls of using more traditional methods based on parameters in logistic regression models are illustrated

Prediagnostic smoking history, alcohol consumption, and colorectal cancer survival: The Seattle Colon Cancer Family Registry

Smoking and alcohol consumption are associated with an increased risk of developing colorectal cancer. However, it is unclear whether these exposures are associated with survival after colorectal cancer diagnosis

Hormone therapy in relation to survival from large bowel cancer.

Epidemiologic studies of hormone therapy (HT) and colorectal cancer incidence consistently show an inverse association; however, few studies have considered prediagnostic use of HT on mortality among colorectal cancer patients. We evaluated the relationship of HT and survival among a population-based cohort of women with large bowel cancer. Cases (n = 1,297) were newly diagnosed with invasive cancer of the colon or rectum, aged 40-74 years at diagnosis, who were identified by Wisconsin's statewide registry (1988-1991; 1997-2001) for two case-control studies. Information on HT use and other colorectal cancer risk factors was collected by standardized interview. There were 507 deaths (274 of these attributable to colorectal cancer) over 8.4 years of follow-up through December 2005. Hormone use was not associated with colorectal cancer mortality (adjusted hazard rate ratio = 1.09, confidence interval = 0.81-1.47). Colorectal cancer specific mortality was not associated with HT when considered separately by preparation type. Stage did not modify this relationship. Long-term HT was weakly positively associated with increased mortality after diagnosis of proximal colon, but not distal colon cancer. Because we detected no differences in survival among users of HT compared to non-users, the results suggest that HT use may affect only the incidence of some colorectal tumors

Hormone therapy and ovarian cancer: incidence and survival.

OBJECTIVE: We conducted a population-based case-control study to investigate the association between hormone therapy (HT) and ovarian cancer incidence, and followed all these cancer cases to determine the association of HT use with ovarian cancer mortality. METHODS: Seven hundred fifty-one incident cases of invasive epithelial ovarian cancer aged 40-79 years were diagnosed in Massachusetts and Wisconsin between 1993-1995 and 1998-2001 and matched to similarly aged controls (n = 5,808). Study subjects were interviewed by telephone, which ascertained information on HT use and specific preparation, estrogen alone (E-alone) or estrogen plus progestin (EP). Ovarian cancer cases were followed-up for mortality through December 2005. Multivariate logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for ovarian cancer incidence, and Cox proportional hazards modeling was used to estimate hazard ratios and corresponding confidence intervals for ovarian cancer mortality. RESULTS: Ever use of HT was significantly associated with an increased risk of ovarian cancer (odds ratio 1.57, 95% CI 1.31-1.87). The excess risk was confined to women who used E-alone preparations (OR 2.33, 95% CI 1.85-2.95). No significant associations were detected between pre-diagnosis HT use and ovarian cancer survival. CONCLUSIONS: Hormone therapy increases risk of ovarian cancer among E-alone users, but there is no substantial impact on survival after diagnosis

No difference between red wine or white wine consumption and breast cancer risk.

Epidemiologic studies have reported an increased risk of breast cancer among women who drink alcohol, including wine (1, 2) Two meta-analyses estimated a ∼10% [95% confidence interval (CI), 5-15%] increased risk of breast cancer with each additional 10 grams (∼1 drink) of alcohol/day regardless of beverage type (3, 4). Few studies have evaluated breast cancer risk separately for red and white wine (5-8). There is some evidence of beneficial health effects of red wine from laboratory (9) and epidemiologic studies of heart disease (10) and prostate cancer (11, 12). We evaluated overall alcohol as well as red and white wine consumption to examine beverage-specific effects on breast cancer

Pre-Diagnosis Oophorectomy, Estrogen Therapy and Mortality in a Cohort of Women Diagnosed with Breast Cancer

Introduction: Pre-diagnosis oophorectomy and estrogen therapy could impact mortality due to breast cancer and cardiovascular disease (CVD) among breast cancer survivors. Elective bilateral oophorectomy at the time of hysterectomy for benign conditions is not uncommon among US women. Methods: We examined the association between pre-diagnosis total abdominal hysterectomy with bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy (TAHBSO) and both overall and cause-specific mortality in the Collaborative Breast Cancer Studies cohort. Medical history and prior estrogen use were collected during standardized telephone interviews. Vital status, including date and cause of death, was obtained by linkage with the National Death Index. Multivariate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for cause-specific mortality were calculated using Cox proportional hazards regression. Results: Seventeen percent (N = 1,778) of breast cancer survivors (mean age at diagnosis = 63.5) reported pre-diagnosis TAHBSO. During follow-up (mean = 9.5 years), 2,856 deaths occurred, including 1,060 breast cancer deaths and 459 CVD deaths. Breast cancer deaths occurred a median of 5.1 years after diagnosis; CVD deaths occurred further from diagnosis (median = 9.7 years). Women who reported pre-diagnosis TAHBSO had a 16% decrease in all-cause mortality (HR = 0.84; 95% CI: 0.76, 0.92) compared to those with an intact uterus and ovaries. This overall decrease reflected a 27% lower breast cancer mortality among women who never used postmenopausal hormones (HR = 0.73; CI: 0.55, 0.96) and 43% lower CVD risk among women who reported using estrogen (HR = 0.57; CI: 0.39, 0.83) after TAHBSO. Conclusions: Information on prior TAHBSO and estrogen use can inform risk of death from both breast cancer and cardiovascular disease among breast cancer survivors

Prediagnostic use of hormone therapy and mortality after breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: A few studies have observed reduced breast cancer mortality in women who used hormone therapy before diagnosis. Due to the high prevalence of past and current hormone use, it is important to investigate whether these preparations are related to breast cancer mortality. METHODS: To evaluate the influence of prediagnostic use of hormone therapy on breast cancer mortality, a prospective cohort of 12,269 women ages 50 years or more diagnosed with incident invasive breast cancer and residents of Wisconsin, Massachusetts, or New Hampshire were enrolled in three phases beginning in 1988. They were followed for death until December 31, 2005, using the National Death Index. Cumulative mortality and multivariable adjusted hazard rate ratios for breast cancer and other mortality causes were calculated for women according to any hormone therapy use, and for exclusive use of estrogen or estrogen-progestin (EP). RESULTS: During an average 10.3 years of follow-up, 1,690 deaths from breast cancer were documented. Cumulative mortality from breast cancer was lower among hormone therapy users, specifically current users at the time of diagnosis, and EP users, compared with nonusers. Adjusted survival varied by type and duration of hormone therapy before diagnosis. A reduced risk of death from breast cancer was associated with EP preparations (hazard rate ratio, 0.73; 0.59-0.91) and with > or =5 years of EP use (0.60; 0.43-0.84). No association was observed for women who were former or current users of E-alone preparations. CONCLUSIONS: Although use of combined EP preparations increases breast cancer risk, in this study, use of these hormones before diagnosis was associated with reduced risk of death after a breast cancer diagnosis. The better survival among users, particularly of EP, persisted after adjustment of screening, stage, and measured confounders