Rational Expectations and Output Supply: Evidence from the Sugar Cane and Coffee Industries in Jamaica

This paper investigates the rationality and price responsiveness of sugar cane and coffee farmers in Jamaica for the period 1960-1980. The output supplied by these farmers is modeled to incorporate anticipation by farmers of commodity board actions. The structure of constraints imposed by the rationality of these anticipated responses 1s derived and tested by means of a likelihood ratio test statistic. The results support the joint hypothesis of rationality and price responsiveness. Policy implications of the anticipated response function are also identifies

Price Policy and Agricultural Export Performance in Jamaica

Exact date of working paper unknown

Rational Expectations and Output Supply: Evidence from the Sugar Cane and Coffee Industries in Jamaica

Exact date of working paper unknown

Between analysis and transformation: technology, methodology and evaluation on the SPLICE project

This paper concerns the ways in which technological change may entail methodological development in e-learning research. The focus of our argument centres on the subject of evaluation in e-learning and how technology can contribute to consensus-building on the value of project outcomes, and the identification of mechanisms behind those outcomes. We argue that a critical approach to the methodology of evaluation which harnesses technology in this way is vital to agile and effective policy and strategy-making in institutions as the challenges of transformation in a rapidly changing educational and technological environment are grappled with. With its focus on mechanisms and multiple stakeholder perspectives, we identify Pawson and Tilley’s ‘Realistic Evaluation’ as an appropriate methodological approach for this purpose, and we report on its use within a JISC-funded project on social software, SPLICE (Social Practices, Learning and Interoperability in Connected Environments). The project created new tools to assist the identification of mechanisms responsible for change to personal and institutional technological practice. These tools included collaborative mind-mapping and focused questioning, and tools for the animated modelling of complex mechanisms. By using these tools, large numbers of project stakeholders could engage in a process where they were encouraged to articulate and share their theories and ideas as to why project outcomes occurred. Using the technology, this process led towards the identification and agreement of common mechanisms which had explanatory power for all stakeholders. In conclusion, we argue that SPLICE has shown the potential of technologically-mediated Realistic Evaluation. Given the technologies we now have, a methodology based on the mass cumulation of stakeholder theories and ideas about mechanisms is feasible. Furthermore, the summative outcomes of such a process are rich in explanatory and predictive power, and therefore useful to the immediate and strategic problems of the sector. Finally, we argue that as well as generating better explanations for phenomena, the evaluation process can itself become transformative for stakeholders

The influence of a biopsychosocial-based treatment approach to primary overt hypothyroidism: A protocol for a pilot study

Background Hypothyroidism is a prevalent endocrine condition. Individuals with this disease are commonly managed through supplementation with synthetic thyroid hormone, with the aim of alleviating symptoms and restoring normal thyroid stimulating hormone levels. Generally this management strategy is effective and well tolerated. However, there is research to suggest that a significant proportion of hypothyroid sufferers are being inadequately managed. Furthermore, hypothyroid patients are more likely to have a decreased sense of well-being and more commonly experience constitutional and neuropsychiatric complaints, even with pharmacological intervention. The current management of hypothyroidism follows a biomedical model. Little consideration has been given to a biopsychosocial approach to this condition. Within the chiropractic profession there is growing support for the use of a biopsychosocial-based intervention called Neuro-Emotional Technique (NET) for this population. Methods/Design A placebo-controlled, single-blinded, randomised clinical pilot-trial has been designed to assess the influence of Neuro-Emotional Technique on a population with primary overt hypothyroidism. A sample of 102 adults (≥18 years) who meet the inclusion criteria will be randomised to either a treatment group or a placebo group. Each group will receive ten treatments (NET or placebo) over a six week period, and will be monitored for six months. The primary outcome will involve the measurement of depression using the Depression, Anxiety and Stress Scale (DASS). The secondary outcome measures to be used are; serum thyroid stimulating hormone, serum free-thyroxine, serum free-triiodothyronine, serum thyroid peroxidase auto-antibodies, serum thyroglobulin auto-antibodies as well as the measurement of functional health and well-being using the Short-Form-36 Version 2. The emotional states of anxiety and stress will be measured using the DASS. Self-measurement of basal heart rate and basal temperature will also be included among the secondary outcome measures. The primary and secondary measures will be obtained at commencement, six weeks and six months. Measures of basal heart rate and basal temperature will be obtained daily for the six month trial period, with recording to commence one week prior to the intervention. Discussion The study will provide information on the influence of NET when added to existing management regimens in individuals with primary overt hypothyroidism

A stochastic analysis of scoring systems

Many scoring systems can be seen as statistical tests of hypotheses. In tennis singles, for example, the scoring system used can be seen as a test involving 2 binomial probabilities pa and pb, where pa (pb) is the probability player A (player B) wins a point initiated by player A (player B). Tennis singles is thus a “bipoints” game. The tennis scoring system is an inefficient test relative to the sequential probability ratio test (SPRT) based on pairs of these points. When pa + Pb > 1 (the tennis context), an SPRT based on the “play-the-loser” (PL) rule is superefficient. Chapter 2 shows that, when pa + pb > 1, there is in fact a spectrum of super-efficient tests (with even durations) based on “partia1-PLV (PPL) rules. The most efficient tests within this spectrum, when pa + pb > 1, are the SPRT based on the (full) PL rule. Chapter 3 extends this spectrum of tests to produce the total spectrum of tests (including those with odd durations). Points within the tennis scoring system have different “importances” whereas points within any member of the above (efficient) spectrum of PPL systems are equally “important” when pa = pb. Intuitively, the differing importances of the points within the tennis scoring system contribute to the inefficiency of that system. Chapter 4 establishes a relationship between the efficiency of a bipoints scoring system and the importances of the points within it; a relationship which is used in Chapter 5 to show that the SPRT based on the PL rule has an optimal efficiency property when pa + Pb > 1. Chapters 6 and 7 address the question as to whether the super-efficiency of the PL rule carries over to the case of tennis doubles in which there axe essentially 4 binomial probabilities pai, pa2 , Pbi and pb2 . Some asymptotic results axe achieved although, generally speaking, they are of little practical relevance. The particular scoring system used in tennis is analysed in detail in Chapter 8 and the methodology used is seen to be useful for analysing any “nested” scoring system (e.g. tennis is 3-nested: points - games - sets). It was the study of this specific scoring system and its inherent inefficiency which lead to the theory of Chapters 2 to 7. A new tennis scoring system is proposed in Chapter 8. Chapter 9 contains a brief discussion of some of the characteristics the designer of a scoring system needs to consider and some results are given. The study of the importances of points is extended in Chapter 10 and in Chapter 11 team play with associated countback rules is investigated. The general conclusion is that “upwardnested” countback systems (e.g. points - games - sets, in tennis) axe preferable to “downward-nested” systems (sets - games - points). In Chapter 12 it is shown that the classical scoring system used in multiple choice examinations can be considerably improved by modifying tha t scoring system and instructing the examinees to cross any boxes known to be incorrect when the correct box for that question is unknown