COVID-19 policy interventions and fertility dynamics in the context of pre-pandemic welfare support

This paper focuses on nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to explain fertility dy-namics during the pandemic, while considering countries’ institutional context. Weargue that containment policies disrupted people’s lives and increased their uncer-tainty more in countries with weak welfare support systems, while health-relatedand economic support NPIs mitigated such disruptions much more there, as theywere less expected by citizens. We estimate monthly “excess” crude birth rates (CBRs)and find that countries with low public support—Southern Europe, East Asia, andEastern Europe—experienced larger decreases and less of a rebound in CBRs thancountries with histories of high public spending—Western, Central, and NorthernEurope. However, in low support countries, NPIs are much more strongly associ-ated with excess CBRs—containment NPIs more negatively and health and economicsupport NPIs more positively—with the exception of the one-month lag of contain-ment NPIs, for which the opposite holds. When putting these coefficients into broaderperspective, our findings suggest that the actual implementation of all NPIs takentogether mitigated fertility declines. This is especially the case for low public supportcountries, whereas one might have seen a birth decline even in high support countriesif the NPIs were not implemented

Early assessment of the relationship between the COVID-19 pandemic and births in highincome countries

Drawing on past pandemics, scholars have suggested that the COVID-19 pandemic will bring about fertility decline. Evidence from actual birth data has so far been scarce. This brief report uses data on vital statistics from a selection of high-income countries, including the United States. The pandemic has been accompanied by a significant drop in crude birth rates beyond that predicted by past trends in 7 out of the 22 countries considered, with particularly strong declines in southern Europe: Italy (-9.1%), Spain (-8.4%), and Portugal (-6.6%). Substantial heterogeneities are, however, observed

The COVID-19 pandemic and human fertility

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic will have consequences for human populations. Worldwide, mortality levels are certainly affected. The worst-hit northern Italian provinces recorded losses of period life expectancy of 2 to 3.5 years for men and 1.1. to 2.5 years for women, the largest decline in life expectancy since the 1918–1919 influenza pandemic and World War II. Similar patterns follow in other countries. With the focus firmly on deaths, the scientific debate risks overlooking that population dynamics are also shaped by fertility trajectories. Throughout history, spikes in mortality owing to events such as wars, famines, and pandemics were followed by changes in fertility, resulting in fewer births in the short term and by recuperation in subsequent years. Economic and social change triggered by a pandemic is also likely to influence childbearing intentions and completed fertility. How the COVID-19 pandemic will affect fertility has implications for the rate of population aging, shaping future health challenges and economic growth potential across the globe

Family ideals in an era of low fertility

This study conceptualizes andempirically measures familyideals across eight low-fertilitycountries that differ significantlyin their institutional settings andcultural contexts. Marriage,children, and income are held upagainst several other dimensionscaptured in a set of familyvignettes. Whereas childlessnessis always considered a negativeattribute of an ideal family,respondents did not prioritizefamilies with multiple childrenover one child families. Goodcommunication among familymembers and grandparents ishighly valued, as is enjoyingrespect in the local community.Though there are importantdifferences across countries, wealso show that respondents thinksimilarly about the relativeimportance of family domains,thereby demonstrating thatfamily ideals are rather uniformacross industrialized countries