Beyond Balanced Growth

One of the most striking regularities of the growth process is the massive reallocation of labor from agriculture into industry and services. Balanced growth models are commonly used in macroeconomics because they are consistent with the well-known Kaldor facts about economic growth. These models are, however, inconsistent with the structural change dynamics that are a central feature of economic development. This paper discusses models with generalized balanced growth paths. These paths retain some of the key features of balanced growth but are consistent with the observed labor reallocations dynamics.

Un modelo sobre requisitos macroeconómicos para adelantar reformas de política

La estructura del modelo se puede explicar examinando sus tres componentes claves: el método contable, las ecuaciones de comportamiento y las reglas de proyección de las variables y la elección de variables residuales que exigen las partidas contables. A manera de ejemplo, se presentarán luego algunas simulaciones para mostrar el funcionamiento del modelo.MODELOS MACROECONOMICOS, POLITICA MACROECONOMICA

Exchange rates, protectionism and free trade

Includes bibliographical references.Since the end of World War II, Japan has restructured its economy and has fast become a world leader in economics. After the destruction brought about in World War II, it has managed to bring itself up to par with the rest of the more advanced nations of the world. Japan is now a power to be reckoned with

Philippines

The Philippines is planning to shift toward adoption of an inflation targeting framework in 2001. This paper reviews key policy issues in this context, describes various operational and technical preparations, and presents an empirical analysis of the factors driving inflation. Among the key policy requirements, while central bank independence appears assured, the exchange rate has been allowed to fluctuate largely freely, and the authorities are embarking on a medium-term plan for fiscal consolidation. Empirical results suggest that the effective exchange rate (rather than a bilateral rate) and wages are important long-run influences on inflation.

Un modelo sobre requisitos macroeconómicos para adelantar reformas de política

La estructura del modelo se puede explicar examinando sus tres componentes claves: el método contable, las ecuaciones de comportamiento y las reglas de proyección de las variables y la elección de variables residuales que exigen las partidas contables. A manera de ejemplo, se presentarán luego algunas simulaciones para mostrar el funcionamiento del modelo

Macroprudential Policy Effectiveness: Lessons from Southeastern Europe

This paper presents a detailed account of the rich set of macroprudential measures (MPPs) implemented in Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania, and Serbia during their synchronized boom and bust cycles in 2002–12, and assesses their effectiveness in managing credit growth. Only strong MPPs helped contain domestic credit growth during the boom years, but circumvention via direct external borrowing offset their effectiveness to a large extent. MPPs taken during the bust had no discernible impact. The paper concludes that (i) proper calibration of MPPs is of the essence; (ii) only strong, broad-based MPPs can contain credit booms; (iii) econometric studies of macroprudential policy effectiveness should focus on concrete policy measures rather than on instruments use; and (iv) in so doing should allow for possible non-linear and state-contingent effects

Beyond Balanced Growth

One of the most striking regularities of the growth process is the massive reallocation of labour from agriculture into industry and services. Balanced growth models are commonly used in macroeconomics because they are consistent with the well-known Kaldor facts about economic growth. Unfortunately, these models are inconsistent with the structural change dynamics that are a central feature of economic development. This paper discusses models with generalized balanced growth paths. These paths retain some of the key features of balanced growth, but are consistent with the observed labour reallocations dynamics. The conventional explanation for the observed patterns of structural change is that the rate of technical progress has been higher in agriculture than in services. We show that this pattern of technical progress is neither necessary nor sufficient to account for the observed dynamics of structural change. The key to producing these reallocation dynamics are differences in the income elasticity of the demand for the goods produced by the different sectors.Growth; Structural Change

Beyond Balanced Growth

Balanced growth models are commonly used in macroeconomics because they are consistent with the well-known Kaldor facts regarding economic growth. These models, however, are inconsistent with one of the most striking regularities of the growth process—the massive reallocation of labor from agriculture into manufacturing and services. This paper presents a simple model consistent with both the Kaldor facts and the dynamics of sectoral labor reallocation. The model shows that balanced growth can be consistent with structural change.

Beyond Balanced Growth

Also published as NBER Working Paper #6159 (1997); CEPR Discussion Paper #1693 (1997); International Monetary Fund Working Paper WP/01/85 (2001); and Kongsamut, Piyabha, Rebelo, Sergio, and Danyang Xie. "Beyond Balanced Growth." Review of Economic Studies v68, n4 (October 2001): 869-82.One of the most striking regularities of the growth process is the massive reallocation of labor from agriculture into industry and services. Balanced growth models are commonly used in macroeconomics because they are consistent with the well-known Kaldor facts about economic growth. These models are, however, inconsistent with the structural change dynamics that are a central feature of economic development. This paper discusses models with generalized balanced growth paths. These paths retain some of the key features of balanced growth but are consistent with the observed labor reallocations dynamics