Influence of antecedent soil moisture conditions on the synoptic meteorology of the Black Saturday bushfire event in southeast Australia

The dynamics and large-scale drivers of heat wave (HW) events in Australia are well documented. However, the influence of soil moisture in modulating HWs is largely unexplored. We focus here on a recent significant HW event in southeast Australia that preceded the Black Saturday bushfires (3-7 February 2009). During this period, the southeast of Australia experienced unprecedented warm conditions, which, in conjunction with high fuel load and mesoscale weather conditions, led to devastating bushfires. We examine how different initial soil moisture conditions with lead times of 5, 10, and 15 days prior to the event would have altered its overall dynamics at the continental scale. We show that at short lead times (5 days), the influence of perturbing soil moisture is mostly linear. Decreasing (increasing) soil moisture increases (decreases) maximum temperatures, associated with an intensification of the upper-level anticyclone. The effect of increasing soil moisture is more nonlinear than decreasing soil moisture with increasing lead time; namely, increasing soil moisture can also lead to an increase in maximum temperature over some parts of the domain, rather than a decrease everywhere. At lead times of up to 15 days, the imposed perturbation in soil moisture, mostly confined to the Tropics, is essentially lost such that the impact on maximum temperatures on the day of the event cannot be related to the sign of the imposed perturbation in soil moisture. Our results highlight the importance of accurate soil moisture estimates in capturing the intensity and spatial extent of HW events in southeast Australia, but only at relatively short lead times

Impact of land surface initialization approach on subseasonal forecast skill: A regional analysis in the southern hemisphere

The authors use a sophisticated coupled land–atmosphere modeling system for a Southern Hemisphere subdomain centered over southeastern Australia to evaluate differences in simulation skill from two different land surface initialization approaches. The first approach uses equilibrated land surface states obtained from offline simulations of the land surface model, and the second uses land surface states obtained from reanalyses. The authors find that land surface initialization using prior offline simulations contribute to relative gains in subseasonal forecast skill. In particular, relative gains in forecast skill for temperature of 10%–20% within the first 30 days of the forecast can be attributed to the land surface initialization method using offline states. For precipitation there is no distinct preference for the land surface initialization method, with limited gains in forecast skill irrespective of the lead time. The authors evaluated the asymmetry between maximum and minimum temperatures and found that maximum temperatures had the largest gains in relative forecast skill, exceeding 20% in some regions. These results were statistically significant at the 98% confidence level at up to 60 days into the forecast period. For minimum temperature, using reanalyses to initialize the land surface contributed to relative gains in forecast skill, reaching 40% in parts of the domain that were statistically significant at the 98% confidence level. The contrasting impact of the land surface initialization method between maximum and minimum temperature was associated with different soil moisture coupling mechanisms. Therefore, land surface initialization from prior offline simulations does improve predictability for temperature, particularly maximum temperature, but with less obvious improvements for precipitation and minimum temperature over southeastern Australia

Implementation of a soil albedo scheme in the CABLEv1.4b land surface model and evaluation against MODIS estimates over Australia

Land surface albedo, the fraction of incoming solar radiation reflected by the land surface, is a key component of the Earth system. This study evaluates snow-free surface albedo simulations by the Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange (CABLEv1.4b) model with the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the Satellite Pour L'Observation de la Terre (SPOT) albedo. We compare results from offline simulations over the Australian continent. The control simulation has prescribed background snow-free and vegetation-free soil albedo derived from MODIS whilst the experiments use a simple parameterisation based on soil moisture and colour, originally from the Biosphere Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS), and adopted in the Common Land Model (CLM). The control simulation, with prescribed soil albedo, shows that CABLE simulates overall albedo over Australia reasonably well, with differences compared to MODIS and SPOT albedos within ±0.1. Application of the original BATS scheme, which uses an eight-class soil classification, resulted in large differences of up to −0.25 for the near-infrared (NIR) albedo over large parts of the desert regions of central Australia. The use of a recalibrated 20-class soil colour classification from the CLM, which includes a higher range for saturated and VIS (visible) and NIR soil albedos, reduced the underestimation of the NIR albedo. However, this soil colour mapping is tuned to CLM soil moisture, a quantity which is not necessarily transferrable between land surface models. We therefore recalibrated the soil color map using CABLE's climatological soil moisture, which further reduced the underestimation of the NIR albedo to within ±0.15 over most of the continent as compared to MODIS and SPOT albedos. Small areas of larger differences of up to −0.25 remained within the central arid parts of the continent during summer; however, the spatial extent of these large differences is substantially reduced as compared to the simulation using the default eight-class uncalibrated soil colour map. It is now possible to use CABLE coupled to atmospheric models to investigate soil-moisture–albedo feedbacks, an important enhancement of the model

Structurama: Bayesian Inference of Population Structure

Structurama is a program for inferring population structure. Specifically, the program calculates the posterior probability of assigning individuals to different populations. The program takes as input a file containing the allelic information at some number of loci sampled from a collection of individuals. After reading a data file into computer memory, Structurama uses a Gibbs algorithm to sample assignments of individuals to populations. The program implements four different models: The number of populations can be considered fixed or a random variable with a Dirichlet process prior; moreover, the genotypes of the individuals in the analysis can be considered to come from a single population (no admixture) or as coming from several different populations (admixture). The output is a file of partitions of individuals to populations that were sampled by the Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. The partitions are sampled in proportion to their posterior probabilities. The program implements a number of ways to summarize the sampled partitions, including calculation of the ‘mean’ partition—a partition of the individuals to populations that minimizes the squared distance to the sampled partitions

Influence of leaf area index prescriptions on simulations of heat, moisture, and carbon fluxes

Leaf area index (LAI), the total one-sided surface area of leaf per ground surface area, is a key component of land surface models. The authors investigate the influence of differing, plausible LAI prescriptions on heat, moisture, and carbon fluxes simulated by the Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange version 1.4b (CABLEv1.4b) model over the Australian continent. A 15-member ensemble monthly LAI dataset is generated using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) LAI product and gridded observations of temperature and precipitation. Offline simulations lasting 29 years (1980–2008) are carried out at 25-km resolution with the composite monthly means from the MODIS LAI product (control simulation) and compared with simulations using each of the 15-member ensemble monthly varying LAI datasets generated. The imposed changes in LAI did not strongly influence the sensible and latent fluxes, but the carbon fluxes were more strongly affected. Croplands showed the largest sensitivity in gross primary production with differences ranging from −90% to 60%. Plant function types (PFTs) with high absolute LAI and low interannual variability, such as evergreen broadleaf trees, showed the least response to the different LAI prescriptions, while those with lower absolute LAI and higher interannual variability, such as croplands, were more sensitive. The authors show that reliance on a single LAI prescription may not accurately reflect the uncertainty in the simulation of terrestrial carbon fluxes, especially for PFTs with high interannual variability. The study highlights that accurate representation of LAI in land surface models is key to the simulation of the terrestrial carbon cycle. Hence, this will become critical in quantifying the uncertainty in future changes in primary production

Properties of layer-by-layer vector stochastic models of force fluctuations in granular materials

We attempt to describe the stress distributions of granular packings using lattice-based layer-by-layer stochastic models that satisfy the constraints of force and torque balance and non-tensile forces at each site. The inherent asymmetry in the layer-by-layer approach appears to lead to an asymmetric force distribution, in disagreement with both experiments and general symmetry considerations. The vertical force component probability distribution is robust and in agreement with predictions of the scalar q model while the distribution of horizontal force components is qualitatively different and depends on the details of implementation.Comment: 18 pages, 12 figures (with subfigures), 1 table. Uses revtex, epsfig,subfigure, and cite. Submitted to PRE. Plots have been bitmapped. High-resolution version is available. Email [email protected] or download from http://rainbow.uchicago.edu/~mbnguyen/research/vm.htm

Clustering Algorithms: Their Application to Gene Expression Data

Gene expression data hide vital information required to understand the biological process that takes place in a particular organism in relation to its environment. Deciphering the hidden patterns in gene expression data proffers a prodigious preference to strengthen the understanding of functional genomics. The complexity of biological networks and the volume of genes present increase the challenges of comprehending and interpretation of the resulting mass of data, which consists of millions of measurements; these data also inhibit vagueness, imprecision, and noise. Therefore, the use of clustering techniques is a first step toward addressing these challenges, which is essential in the data mining process to reveal natural structures and iden-tify interesting patterns in the underlying data. The clustering of gene expression data has been proven to be useful in making known the natural structure inherent in gene expression data, understanding gene functions, cellular processes, and subtypes of cells, mining useful information from noisy data, and understanding gene regulation. The other benefit of clustering gene expression data is the identification of homology, which is very important in vaccine design. This review examines the various clustering algorithms applicable to the gene expression data in order to discover and provide useful knowledge of the appropriate clustering technique that will guarantee stability and high degree of accuracy in its analysis procedure

National identity predicts public health support during a global pandemic

Changing collective behaviour and supporting non-pharmaceutical interventions is an important component in mitigating virus transmission during a pandemic. In a large international collaboration (Study 1, N = 49,968 across 67 countries), we investigated self-reported factors associated with public health behaviours (e.g., spatial distancing and stricter hygiene) and endorsed public policy interventions (e.g., closing bars and restaurants) during the early stage of the COVID-19 pandemic (April-May 2020). Respondents who reported identifying more strongly with their nation consistently reported greater engagement in public health behaviours and support for public health policies. Results were similar for representative and non-representative national samples. Study 2 (N = 42 countries) conceptually replicated the central finding using aggregate indices of national identity (obtained using the World Values Survey) and a measure of actual behaviour change during the pandemic (obtained from Google mobility reports). Higher levels of national identification prior to the pandemic predicted lower mobility during the early stage of the pandemic (r = −0.40). We discuss the potential implications of links between national identity, leadership, and public health for managing COVID-19 and future pandemics.publishedVersio