Support for GCTE-LUCC open Science Conference on global change. Final report for period September 15, 1997, - September 14, 1998

The Global Change and Terrestrial Ecosystems (GCTE) core project of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Program (IGBP) and the Land-Use/Cover Change (LUCC) core project of IGBP and the International Human Dimensions Program (IHDP) held a major open Science Conference in Barcelona, Spain, on 14-18 March 1998. At the Conference, scientists presented the most recent research findings from these two international projects, explored emerging cross-cutting linkages between the projects, and highlighted the importance of the regional approach to global change research. This grant from the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Biological and Environmental Research, provided support for the Conference by contributing to the production of conference literature and by supporting the participation of U.S. scientists in the Conference

Drivers of local extinction risk in alpine plants under warming climate

The scarcity of local plant extinctions following recent climate change has been explained by demographic inertia and lags in the displacement of resident species by novel species, generating an ‘extinction debt’. We established a transplant experiment to disentangle the contribution of these processes to the local extinction risk of four alpine plants in the Swiss Alps. Projected population growth (λ) derived from integral projection models was reduced by 0.07/°C of warming on average, whereas novel species additionally decreased λ by 0.15 across warming levels. Effects of novel species on predicted extinction time were greatest at warming < 2 °C for two species. Projected population declines under both warming and with novel species were primarily driven by increased mortality. Our results suggest that extinction debt can be explained by a combination of demographic inertia and lags in novel species establishment, with the latter being particularly important for some species under low levels of warming.ISSN:1461-023XISSN:1461-024