Using conditional kernel density estimation for wind power density forecasting

Of the various renewable energy resources, wind power is widely recognized as one of the most promising. The management of wind farms and electricity systems can benefit greatly from the availability of estimates of the probability distribution of wind power generation. However, most research has focused on point forecasting of wind power. In this paper, we develop an approach to producing density forecasts for the wind power generated at individual wind farms. Our interest is in intraday data and prediction from 1 to 72 hours ahead. We model wind power in terms of wind speed and wind direction. In this framework, there are two key uncertainties. First, there is the inherent uncertainty in wind speed and direction, and we model this using a bivariate VARMA-GARCH (vector autoregressive moving average-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic) model, with a Student t distribution, in the Cartesian space of wind speed and direction. Second, there is the stochastic nature of the relationship of wind power to wind speed (described by the power curve), and to wind direction. We model this using conditional kernel density (CKD) estimation, which enables a nonparametric modeling of the conditional density of wind power. Using Monte Carlo simulation of the VARMA-GARCH model and CKD estimation, density forecasts of wind speed and direction are converted to wind power density forecasts. Our work is novel in several respects: previous wind power studies have not modeled a stochastic power curve; to accommodate time evolution in the power curve, we incorporate a time decay factor within the CKD method; and the CKD method is conditional on a density, rather than a single value. The new approach is evaluated using datasets from four Greek wind farms

Remote sensing study of land use and sedimentation in the Ross Barnett Reservoir, Jackson, Mississippi area

This multi-year study is aimed at focusing on the recognition of sediment and other affluents in a selected area of the Ross Barnett Reservoir. The principle objectives are the determination of land use types, effect of land use on erosion, and the correlation of sediment with land use in the area. The I2S multi-band imagery was employed in conjunction with ground truth data for both water and land use studies. The selected test site contains approximately forty square miles including forest, open land, and water in addition to residential and recreational areas

Transistors

Contains reports on eight research projects.Lincoln Laboratory under Contract AF19(122)-45

Modulation of the severe CD4+ T-cell loss caused by a pathogenic simian–human immunodeficiency virus by replacement of the subtype B vpu with the vpu from a subtype C HIV-1 clinical isolate

AbstractPreviously, we showed that the Vpu protein from subtype C human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) was efficiently targeted to the cell surface, suggesting that this protein has biological properties that differ from the well-studied subtype B Vpu protein. In this study, we have further analyzed the biological properties of the subtype C Vpu protein. Flow cytometric analysis revealed that the subtype B Vpu (strain HXB2) was more efficient at down-regulating CD4 surface expression than the Vpu proteins from four subtype C clinical isolates. We constructed a simian-human immunodeficiency virus virus, designated as SHIVSCVpu, in which the subtype B vpu gene from the pathogenic SHIVKU-1bMC33 was substituted with the vpu from a clinical isolate of subtype C HIV-1 (strain C.96.BW16B01). Cell culture studies revealed that SHIVSCVpu replicated with slightly reduced kinetics when compared with the parental SHIVKU-1bMC33 and that the viral Env and Gag precursor proteins were synthesized and processed similarly compared to the parental SHIVKU-1bMC33. To determine if substitution of the subtype C Vpu protein affected the pathogenesis of the virus, three pig-tailed macaques were inoculated with SHIVSCVpu and circulating CD4+ T-cell levels and viral loads were monitored for up to 44 weeks. Our results show that SHIVSCVpu caused a more gradual decline in the rate of CD4+ T cells in pig-tailed macaques compared to those inoculated with parental subtype B SHIVKU-1bMC33. These results show for the first time that different Vpu proteins of HIV-1 can influence the rate at which CD4+ T-cell loss occurs in the SHIV/pig-tailed macaque model

Transistors

Contains reports on six research projects

Universality of finite-size corrections to the number of critical percolation clusters

Monte-Carlo simulations on a variety of 2d percolating systems at criticality suggest that the excess number of clusters in finite systems over the bulk value of nc is a universal quantity, dependent upon the system shape but independent of the lattice and percolation type. Values of nc are found to high accuracy, and for bond percolation confirm the theoretical predictions of Temperley and Lieb, and Baxter, Temperley, and Ashley, which we have evaluated explicitly in terms of simple algebraic numbers. Predictions for the fluctuations are also verified for the first time.Comment: 13 pages, 2 figs., Latex, submitted to Phys. Rev. Let

A reduced-reference perceptual image and video quality metric based on edge preservation

In image and video compression and transmission, it is important to rely on an objective image/video quality metric which accurately represents the subjective quality of processed images and video sequences. In some scenarios, it is also important to evaluate the quality of the received video sequence with minimal reference to the transmitted one. For instance, for quality improvement of video transmission through closed-loop optimisation, the video quality measure can be evaluated at the receiver and provided as feedback information to the system controller. The original image/video sequence-prior to compression and transmission-is not usually available at the receiver side, and it is important to rely at the receiver side on an objective video quality metric that does not need reference or needs minimal reference to the original video sequence. The observation that the human eye is very sensitive to edge and contour information of an image underpins the proposal of our reduced reference (RR) quality metric, which compares edge information between the distorted and the original image. Results highlight that the metric correlates well with subjective observations, also in comparison with commonly used full-reference metrics and with a state-of-the-art RR metric. © 2012 Martini et al

Exact results at the 2-D percolation point

We derive exact expressions for the excess number of clusters b and the excess cumulants b_n of a related quantity at the 2-D percolation point. High-accuracy computer simulations are in accord with our predictions. b is a finite-size correction to the Temperley-Lieb or Baxter-Temperley-Ashley formula for the number of clusters per site n_c in the infinite system limit; the bn correct bulk cumulants. b and b_n are universal, and thus depend only on the system's shape. Higher-order corrections show no apparent dependence on fractional powers of the system size.Comment: 12 pages, 2 figures, LaTeX, submitted to Physical Review Letter

The presence of the casein kinase II phosphorylation sites of Vpu enhances the CD4+ T cell loss caused by the simian–human immunodeficiency virus SHIVKU-lbMC33 in pig-tailed macaques

AbstractThe simian–human immunodeficiency virus (SHIV)/ macaque model for human immunodeficiency virus type 1 has become a useful tool to assess the role of Vpu in lentivirus pathogenesis. In this report, we have mutated the two phosphorylated serine residues of the HIV-1 Vpu to glycine residues and have reconstructed a SHIV expressing this nonphosphorylated Vpu (SHIVS52,56G). Expression studies revealed that this protein was localized to the same intracellular compartment as wild-type Vpu. To determine if this virus was pathogenic, four pig-tailed macaques were inoculated with SHIVS52,56G and virus burdens and circulating CD4+ T cells monitored up to 1 year. Our results indicate that SHIVS52,56G caused rapid loss in the circulating CD4+ T cells within 3 weeks of inoculation in one macaque (CC8X), while the other three macaques developed no or gradual numbers of CD4+ T cells and a wasting syndrome. Histological examination of tissues revealed that macaque CC8X had lesions in lymphoid tissues (spleen, lymph nodes, and thymus) that were typical for macaques inoculated with pathogenic parental SHIVKU-1bMC33 and had no lesions within the CNS. To rule out that macaque CC8X had selected for a virus in which there was reversion of the glycine residues at positions 52 and 56 to serine residues and/or compensating mutations occurred in other genes associated with CD4 down-regulation, sequence analysis was performed on amplified vpu sequences isolated from PBMC and from several lymphoid tissues at necropsy. Sequence analysis revealed a reversion of the glycine residues back to serine residues in this macaque. The other macaques maintained low virus burdens, with one macaque (P003) developing a wasting syndrome between months 9 and 11. Histological examination of tissues from this macaque revealed a thymus with severe atrophy that was similar to that of a previously reported macaque inoculated with a SHIV lacking vpu (Virology 293, 2002, 252). Sequence analysis revealed no reversion of the glycine residues in the vpu sequences isolated from this macaque. These results contrast with those from four macaques inoculated with the parental pathogenic SHIVKU-1bMC33, all of which developed severe CD4+ T cell loss within 1 month after inoculation. Taken together, these results indicate that casein kinase II phosphorylation sites of Vpu contributes to the pathogenicity of the SHIVKU-1bMC33 and suggest that the SHIVKU-1bMC33/pig-tailed macaque model will be useful in analyzing amino acids/domains of Vpu that contribute to the pathogenesis of HIV-1

A fast Monte Carlo algorithm for site or bond percolation

We describe in detail a new and highly efficient algorithm for studying site or bond percolation on any lattice. The algorithm can measure an observable quantity in a percolation system for all values of the site or bond occupation probability from zero to one in an amount of time which scales linearly with the size of the system. We demonstrate our algorithm by using it to investigate a number of issues in percolation theory, including the position of the percolation transition for site percolation on the square lattice, the stretched exponential behavior of spanning probabilities away from the critical point, and the size of the giant component for site percolation on random graphs.Comment: 17 pages, 13 figures. Corrections and some additional material in this version. Accompanying material can be found on the web at http://www.santafe.edu/~mark/percolation