Scoping Potential Routes to UK Civil Unrest via the Food System: Results of a Structured Expert Elicitation

We report the results of a structured expert elicitation to identify the most likely types of potential food system disruption scenarios for the UK, focusing on routes to civil unrest. We take a backcasting approach by defining as an end-point a societal event in which 1 in 2000 people have been injured in the UK, which 40% of experts rated as “Possible (20–50%)”, “More likely than not (50–80%)” or “Very likely (>80%)” over the coming decade. Over a timeframe of 50 years, this increased to 80% of experts. The experts considered two food system scenarios and ranked their plausibility of contributing to the given societal scenario. For a timescale of 10 years, the majority identified a food distribution problem as the most likely. Over a timescale of 50 years, the experts were more evenly split between the two scenarios, but over half thought the most likely route to civil unrest would be a lack of total food in the UK. However, the experts stressed that the various causes of food system disruption are interconnected and can create cascading risks, highlighting the importance of a systems approach. We encourage food system stakeholders to use these results in their risk planning and recommend future work to support prevention, preparedness, response and recovery planning

Is caching the key to exclusion in corvids? The case of carrion crows (Corvus corone corone)

Recently, two corvid species, food-caching ravens and non-caching jackdaws, have been tested in an exclusion performance (EP) task. While the ravens chose by exclusion, the jackdaws did not. Thus, foraging behaviour may affect EP abilities. To investigate this possibility, another food-caching corvid species, the carrion crow (Corvus corone corone), was tested in the same exclusion task. We hid food under one of two cups and subsequently lifted either both cups, or the baited or the un-baited cup. The crows were significantly above chance when both cups were lifted or when only the baited cup was lifted. When the empty cup was lifted, we found considerable inter-individual variation, with some birds having a significant preference for the un-baited but manipulated cup. In a follow-up task, we always provided the birds with the full information about the food location, but manipulated in which order they saw the hiding or the removal of food. Interestingly, they strongly preferred the cup which was manipulated last, even if it did not contain any food. Therefore, we repeated the first experiment but controlled for the movement of the cups. In this case, more crows found the food reliably in the un-baited condition. We conclude that carrion crows are able to choose by exclusion, but local enhancement has a strong influence on their performance and may overshadow potential inferential abilities. However, these findings support the hypothesis that caching might be a key to exclusion in corvids

Volcanic Risk perception in the towns around Mt. Vesuvius

In the Red Zone around Mt. Vesuvius hundreds of thousands people have to be evacuated if a new eruption is expected within a few weeks. Observers believe that Napoli is not an ordinary city and Campania not an ordinary region because discipline is not the main attitude of the local people. It is evident that the management of such a large quantity of people, possibly not adequately aware to the volcanic risk, is a difficult task. To systematically examine if people are able to make decisions concerning different volcanic scenarios, a survey of risk perception and preparedness had been conducted in several communities located in the Red Zone. Five towns were chosen because owing to their geographical position they are subject to different hazards. The towns also vary in size (from about 13,000 to 89,000 inhabitants). Two main social targets have been identified: working class people and students. Furthermore, numerous local experts belonging to civic emergency management authorities have been interviewed. Actually we have collected respectively 345 (working class people) and 1657 (students) questionnaires

Twenty-year cohort study of health gain from orthodontic treatment: temporomandibular disorders

Introduction: Temporomandibular disorder (TMD) is a common condition. Studies of TMD in relation to orthodontic treatment did not show an association, but longitudinal studies from adolescence to adulthood are lacking. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between orthodontic treatment and TMD with a longitudinal study design. Methods: This prospective cohort study was conducted in South Wales, United Kingdom. The baseline investigation was carried out in 1981 and involved children aged 11 to 12 years (n = 1018). Follow-up investigations were done in 1984 (n = 792), 1989 (n = 456), and 2000 (n = 337). Results: Overall TMD prevalence increased from the baseline (3.2%) to age 19 to 20 (17.6%) and decreased by age 30 to 31 (9.9%). TMD prevalence was higher in females at all follow-up points, except the baseline. Overall, incidences of TMD were 11.9%, 11.5%, and 6.0% at the first, second, and last follow-ups, respectively. Females were more likely to develop TMD than males (hazard ratio [HR], 2.1; 95% CI, 1.3 and 3.3), and those with high self-esteem were less likely to develop TMD (HR, 0.6; 95% CI, 0.4 and 0.8). There was no association between orthodontic treatment and new TMD onset. The incidences of persistent TMD were 20.0%, 34.9%, and 28.0% at the first, second, and last follow-ups, respectively. Females were more likely to have persistent TMD than males (HR, 2.5; 95% CI, 1.0 and 6.1). There was no association between orthodontic treatment and persistent TMD. The only significant predictors of TMD in adults aged 30 to 31 were female sex (odd ratio, 3.0; 95% CI, 1.1 and 8.2) and TMD in adolescence (odds ratio, 4.5; 95% CI, 2.0 and 10.0). Conclusions: Orthodontic treatment neither causes nor prevents TMD. Female sex and TMD in adolescence were the only predictors of TMD in young adulthood

Orofacial pain in young adults and associated childhood and adulthood factors: results of the population study, Wales, United Kingdom

Objectives: The aim of the study was to investigate the prevalence of orofacial pain (OFP) among young adults (30-31 years old) and to determine the effect of childhood and adulthood risk factors on the occurrence of OFP. Methods: Prospective cohort study to investigate dental and social effects of malocclusion and effectiveness of orthodontic treatment was conducted in Wales, United Kingdom. At 20-year follow-up 337 subjects aged 30-31 participated (74% from previous follow-up aged 19-20 and 33% from the baseline) and were asked about OFP. Results: The prevalence of OFP was 23% (95% CI: 19%, 28%). Childhood factors, socio-demographic, lifestyle, health behavior factors, history of orthodontic treatment and tooth wear were not associated with OFP. Participants with OFP were more likely to report that their teeth did not fit together properly [odds ratio (OR) = 12.4, 95% CI: 2.7-56.5) and reported previous trauma to the jaws (2.3; 1.3-4.2). Both diurnal and nocturnal teeth clenching and grinding were significantly associated with OFP (3.1; 1.4-7.1). Participants with frequent headaches had increased risk of having OFP (3.7; 1.6-8.4) while having reported 4-10 types of pain in other parts of the body other than the head, was associated with OR = 9.2 (3.7-23.0). An increased tendency to have OFP was seen in those individuals with higher levels of psychological distress (2.3; 1.4-3.9), high score on Life Event Inventory (2.6; 1.3-5.3), depressive symptoms (2.2; 1.2-4.0) and stress (2.2; 1.2-4.0). High self-esteem associated with lower risk of OFP (0.5; 0.3-0.9). Conclusions: This study shows that OFP is frequently reported by young adults aged 30-31 and supports a multifactorial etiology with factors from many domains, including local mechanical factors, psychological and co-morbidities. However, none of the childhood factors considered in this study were associated with OFP in adulthood