Monetary policy in exceptional times

This paper describes the response of three central banks to the 2007-09 financial crisis: the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. In particular, the paper discusses the design, implementation and impact of so-called "non-standard" monetary policy measures focusing on those introduced in the euro area in the aftermath of the failure of Lehman Brothers in September 2008. Having established the impact of these measures on various observable money market spreads, we propose an empirical exercise intended to quantify the macroeconomic impact of non-standard monetary policy measures insofar as it has been transmitted via these spreads. The results suggest that non-standard measures have played a quantitatively significant role in stabilising the financial sector and economy after the collapse of Lehman Bros., even if insufficient to avoid a significant fall in economic and financial activity. JEL Classification: E52, E58financial crisis, Non-standard monetary policy

Non-standard monetary policy measures and monetary developments

Standard accounts of the Great Depression attribute an important causal role to monetary policy errors in accounting for the catastrophic collapse in economic activity observed in the early 1930s. While views vary on the relative importance of money versus credit contraction in the propagation of this policy error to the wider economy and ultimately price developments, a broad consensus exists in the economics profession around the view that the collapse in financial intermediation was a crucial intermediary step. What lessons have monetary policy makers taken from this episode? And how have they informed the conduct of monetary policy by leading central banks in recent times? This paper sets out to address these questions, in the context of the financial crisis of 2008-09 and with application to the euro area. It concludes that the Eurosystem’s non-standard monetary policy measures have supported monetary policy transmission and avoided the calamity of the 1930s. JEL Classification: E5, E4, E32Great Recession, monetary policy shocks, money and credit, Non-standard monetary policy

A global perspective on inflation and propagation channels

This paper revisits the evidence on the monetary policy transmission channels. It extends the existing literature along three lines: i) it takes a global perspective with aggregate series based on a broader set of countries (ca 70% per cent of the global economy) and a longer time (1960-2010) than previous studies. It, thereby, internalises potential international transmission channels (i.e. via global commodity prices); ii) it examines the interaction between monetary variables, asset prices (notably residential property) and inflation; and iii) it looks at the role of public debt for consumer price developments. On the basis of a VAR analysis, the study finds that i) global money demand shocks affect global inflation and also global commodity prices, which in turn impact on inflation; ii) global asset/property price dynamics appear to respond to financing cost shocks, but not to shocks to global money demand. Moreover, positive house price shocks exert a significant influence on inflation. From a global perspective, the study suggests recognition of global externalities of commodities and asset values as well as the close monitoring of real estate price developments

Beyond Unprecedented S3 Ep4: Inflation: Not Dead Yet

Over the past 24 months, inflation has soared in the United States, the United Kingdom, and elsewhere. Huw Pill, Chief Economist and Executive Director for Monetary Analysis and research for the Bank of England, discusses the factors driving high inflation and efforts to curb rising prices. (This episode was recorded on April 18, 2023.)https://scholarship.law.columbia.edu/beyond_unprecedented_3/1004/thumbnail.jp

THE ROLE OF MONEY IN MONETARY POLICY MAKING

Abstract: In this paper, the conceptual and empirical bases for the role of monetary aggregates in monetary policy making are reviewed. It is argued that money can act as a useful information variable in a world in which a number of indicators are imperfectly observed. In this context, the paper discusses the role of a reference value (or benchmark) for money growth in episodes of heightened financial uncertainty. A reference value for money growth can also act as an anchor for expectations and policy decisions to prevent divergent dynamics, such as the spiraling of the economy into a liquidity trap, which can occur under simple interest rate rules for policy conduct. The paper concludes that using information included in monetary aggregates in monetary policy decisions can provide an important safeguard against major policy mistakes in the presence of model uncertainty. JEL classification: E5, E58, E52, E41