Impulse transmission model of macroeconomic cycle within the framework of the theory of shocks: Aspect of economic security

Hereinafter presented approach to the categories of the theory of shocks outlines a certain progress on the way to understand shocks in the context of cyclical development of national economies and on the global level [1]. The research evolves the Slutsky’ hypothesis of the cyclical model of the economic system’s reaction on the random effects of impulses (shocks) combined with the impulse transmission approach to the model of the macroeconomic business cycle by Ragnar Frish, tested by American scientists Irma And Frank Adelman [2] with the help of Klein-Goldberger model. © Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2016

Impulse transmission model of macroeconomic cycle within the framework of the theory of shocks: Aspect of economic security

Hereinafter presented approach to the categories of the theory of shocks outlines a certain progress on the way to understand shocks in the context of cyclical development of national economies and on the global level [1]. The research evolves the Slutsky’ hypothesis of the cyclical model of the economic system’s reaction on the random effects of impulses (shocks) combined with the impulse transmission approach to the model of the macroeconomic business cycle by Ragnar Frish, tested by American scientists Irma And Frank Adelman [2] with the help of Klein-Goldberger model. © Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2016

Financial Stability: Modeling the Russian Budgetary and Tax Policy with Fiscal Multipliers' Attraction

The chapter contains a methodology for formalized evaluation of the public fiscal policy from the view point of its impact on the financial stability of a national economy using the example of the Russian Federation and taking into account the fiscal multipliers' effects. The significance of this problem is predetermined by recent trends in Russia's development, when the national economy legs twice behind the world indicators. Taking into account the importance of the Russian budget system as a mechanism for the redistribution of gross domestic product (GDP), the financial stability safeguarding has been connected with the public finance sustainability and with the federal budget revenues and expenditures equilibrium. There are used the methodology of analysis of economic systems' dynamic factors of financial stability as well as fiscal multipliers' effects, aiming at managing national economy's long-term development with the ultimate purpose to maintain the GDP growth rates. Taking into account the fiscal multipliers' values, the model comparisons of the macroeconomics and budget parameters' dynamics prove the necessity of the budget consolidation policy in 2018-2020 provided that the budget expenditures efficiency increases. The latter has been proved by modeling dependences represented by the fiscal multipliers' effects in terms of national financial stability