To verify four 5-year-old mathematical models to predict the outcome of ICU patients

The aim of this study is to verify calibration and discrimination after 5 years in the case mix of patients admitted to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) during the year 2000. In this way we want to perform a quality control of our ICU in order to justify the increased amount of money spent for intensive care.A prospective study has been made on the 357 patients admitted to the ICU during the year 2000. The Apache II score was calculated within the first 24 hours and, depending on the length of stay in the ICU, on the 5(th), 10(th) and 15(th) day after ICU admission. On the basis of the 4 mathematical models death risk has been calculated for each of the 4 times. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test was performed for calibration and ROC curves for discrimination, always for each of the 4 mathematical models.The 1(st) model, at 24 hours from ICU admission, showed a bad calibration (p=0.000088), while the ROC curve was 0.744+/-0.32. Also the 2(nd) model, at the 5(th) day from admission, showed a bad calibration (p=0.000588), with ROC curve of 0.827+/-0.04. The 3(rd) model (10(th) day), was well calibrated (p=0.112247) and discriminating (ROC=0.888 +/-0.04). Finally the models at 15 days showed again a bad calibration (p=0.001422) but a very good discrimination (area=0.906+/-0.06).Developing mathematical models to predict mortality within ICUs can be useful to assess quality of care, even if these models should not be the only ICU quality controls, but must be accompanied by other indicators, looking at quality of life of the patients after ICU discharge

Effects of short-term simultaneous infusion of dobutamine and terlipressin in patients with septic shock: the DOBUPRESS study

Background Terlipressin bolus infusion may reduce cardiac output and global oxygen supply. The present study was designed to determine whether dobutamine may counterbalance the terlipressin-induced depression in mixed-venous oxygen saturation (Svo2) in patients with catecholamine-dependent septic shock. Methods Prospective, randomized, controlled study performed in a university hospital intensive care unit. Septic shock patients requiring a continuous infusion of norepinephrine (0.9 µg kg−1 min−1) to maintain mean arterial pressure (MAP) at 70 (sd 5) mm Hg were randomly allocated to be treated either with (i) sole norepinephrine infusion (control, n=20), (ii) a single dose of terlipressin 1 mg (n=19), or (iii) a single dose of terlipressin 1 mg followed by dobutamine infusion titrated to reverse the anticipated reduction in Svo2 (n=20). Systemic, pulmonary, and regional haemodynamic variables were obtained at baseline and after 2 and 4 h. Laboratory surrogate markers of organ (dys)function were tested at baseline and after 12 and 24 h. Results Terlipressin (with and without dobutamine) infusion preserved MAP at 70 (5) mm Hg, while allowing to reduce norepinephrine requirements to 0.17 (0.2) and 0.2 (0.2) µg kg−1 min−1, respectively [vs1.4 (0.3) µg kg−1 min−1 in controls at 4 h; each P<0.001]. The terlipressin-linked decrease in Svo2 was reversed by dobutamine at a mean dose of 20 (8) µg kg−1 min−1 [Svo2 at 4 h: 59 (11)% vs 69 (12)%, P=0.028]. Conclusions In human catecholamine-dependent septic shock, terlipressin (with and without concomitant dobutamine infusion) increases MAP and markedly reduces norepinephrine requirements. Although no adverse events were noticed in the present study, potential benefits of increasing Svo2 after terlipressin bolus infusion need to be weighted against the risk of cardiovascular complications resulting from high-dose dobutamin

Inhalation of Ultrafine Particles Alters Blood Leukocyte Expression of Adhesion Molecules in Humans

Ultrafine particles (UFPs; aerodynamic diameter < 100 nm) may contribute to the respiratory and cardiovascular morbidity and mortality associated with particulate air pollution. We tested the hypothesis that inhalation of carbon UFPs has vascular effects in healthy and asthmatic subjects, detectable as alterations in blood leukocyte expression of adhesion molecules. Healthy subjects inhaled filtered air and freshly generated elemental carbon particles (count median diameter ~ 25 nm, geometric standard deviation ~ 1.6), for 2 hr, in three separate protocols: 10 μg/m(3) at rest, 10 and 25 μg/m(3) with exercise, and 50 μg/m(3) with exercise. In a fourth protocol, subjects with asthma inhaled air and 10 μg/m(3) UFPs with exercise. Peripheral venous blood was obtained before and at intervals after exposure, and leukocyte expression of surface markers was quantitated using multiparameter flow cytometry. In healthy subjects, particle exposure with exercise reduced expression of adhesion molecules CD54 and CD18 on monocytes and CD18 and CD49d on granulocytes. There were also concentration-related reductions in blood monocytes, basophils, and eosinophils and increased lymphocyte expression of the activation marker CD25. In subjects with asthma, exposure with exercise to 10 μg/m(3) UFPs reduced expression of CD11b on monocytes and eosinophils and CD54 on granulocytes. Particle exposure also reduced the percentage of CD4(+) T cells, basophils, and eosinophils. Inhalation of elemental carbon UFPs alters peripheral blood leukocyte distribution and expression of adhesion molecules, in a pattern consistent with increased retention of leukocytes in the pulmonary vascular bed