The impact of delirium on the prediction of in-hospital mortality in intensive care patients

Introduction: predictive models, such as acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE-II), are widely used in intensive care units (ICUs) to estimate mortality. Although the presence of delirium is associated with a higher mortality in ICU patients, delirium is not part of the APACHE-II model. The aim of the current study was to evaluate whether delirium, present within 24 hours after ICU admission, improves the predictive value of the APACHE-II score.Methods: in a prospective cohort study 2116 adult patients admitted between February 2008 and February 2009 were screened for delirium with the confusion assessment method-ICU (CAM-ICU). Exclusion criteria were sustained coma and unable to understand Dutch. Logistic regression analysis was used to estimate the predicted probabilities in the model with and without delirium. Calibration plots and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test (HL-test) were used to assess calibration. The discriminatory power of the models was analyzed by the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) and AUCs were compared using the Z-test.Results: 1740 patients met the inclusion criteria, of which 332 (19%) were delirious at the time of ICU admission or within 24 hours after admission. Delirium was associated with in-hospital mortality in unadjusted models, odds ratio (OR): 3.22 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.23 - 4.66). The OR between the APACHE-II and in-hospital mortality was 1.15 (95% CI 1.12 - 1.19) per point. The predictive accuracy of the APACHE-II did not improve after adding delirium, both in the total group as well as in the subgroup without cardiac surgery patients. The AUC of the APACHE model without delirium was 0.77 (0.73 - 0.81) and 0.78 (0.74 - 0.82) when delirium was added to the model. The z-value was 0.92 indicating no improvement in discriminative power, and the HL-test and calibration plots indicated no improvement in calibration.Conclusions: although delirium is a significant predictor of mortality in ICU patients, adding delirium as an additional variable to the APACHE-II model does not result in an improvement in its predictive estimate

Testing the proficiency to distinguish locations with elevated plantar pressure within and between professional groups of foot therapists

BACKGROUND: Identification of locations with elevated plantar pressures is important in daily foot care for patients with rheumatoid arthritis, metatarsalgia and diabetes. The purpose of the present study was to evaluate the proficiency of podiatrists, pedorthists and orthotists, to distinguish locations with elevated plantar pressure in patients with metatarsalgia. METHODS: Ten podiatrists, ten pedorthists and ten orthotists working in The Netherlands were asked to identify locations with excessively high plantar pressure in three patients with forefoot complaints. Therapists were instructed to examine the patients according to the methods used in their everyday clinical practice. Regions could be marked through hatching an illustration of a plantar aspect. A pressure sensitive platform was used to quantify the dynamic bare foot plantar pressures and was considered as 'Gold Standard' (GS). A pressure higher than 700 kPa was used as cut-off criterion for categorizing peak pressure into elevated or non-elevated pressure. This was done for both patient's feet and six separate forefoot regions: big toe and metatarsal one to five. Data were analysed by a mixed-model ANOVA and Generalizability Theory. RESULTS: The proportions elevated/non-elevated pressure regions, based on clinical ratings of the therapists, show important discrepancies with the criterion values obtained through quantitative plantar pressure measurement. In general, plantar pressures in the big toe region were underrated and those in the metatarsal regions were overrated. The estimated method agreement on clinical judgement of plantar pressures with the GS was below an acceptable level: i.e. all intraclass correlation coefficient's equal or smaller than .60. The inter-observer agreement for each discipline demonstrated worrisome results: all below .18. The estimated mutual agreements showed that there was virtually no mutual agreement between the professional groups studied. CONCLUSION: Identification of elevated plantar pressure through clinical evaluation is difficult, insufficient and may be potentially harmful. The process of clinical plantar pressure screening has to be re-evaluated. The results of this study point towards the merit of quantitative plantar pressure measurement for clinical practice

Comparison of foot orthoses made by podiatrists, pedorthists and orthotists regarding plantar pressure reduction in The Netherlands

BACKGROUND: There is a need for evidence of clinical effectiveness of foot orthosis therapy. This study evaluated the effect of foot orthoses made by ten podiatrists, ten pedorthists and eleven orthotists on plantar pressure and walking convenience for three patients with metatarsalgia. Aims were to assess differences and variability between and within the disciplines. The relationship between the importance of pressure reduction and the effect on peak pressure was also evaluated. METHODS: Each therapist examined all three patients and was asked to rate the 'importance of pressure reduction' through a visual analogue scale. The orthoses were evaluated twice in two sessions while the patient walked on a treadmill. Plantar pressures were recorded with an in-sole measuring system. Patients scored walking convenience per orthosis. The effects of the orthoses on peak pressure reduction were calculated for the whole plantar surface of the forefoot and six regions: big toe and metatarsal one to five. RESULTS: Within each discipline there was an extensive variation in construction of the orthoses and achieved peak pressure reductions. Pedorthists and orthotists achieved greater maximal peak pressure reductions calculated over the whole forefoot than podiatrists: 960, 1020 and 750 kPa, respectively (p < .001). This was also true for the effect in the regions with the highest baseline peak pressures and walking convenience rated by patients A and B. There was a weak relationship between the 'importance of pressure reduction' and the achieved pressure reduction for orthotists, but no relationship for podiatrists and pedorthotists. CONCLUSION: The large variation for various aspects of foot orthoses therapy raises questions about a consistent use of concepts for pressures management within the professional groups

A randomized trial about the perceived informativeness of new empirical evidence Does beta-carotene prevent (cervical) cancer?

The perceived informativeness of a publication can be assessed by measuring the change in belief it induces among the scientific public, regarding a certain hypothesis. In a randomized trial, we studied the effect of empirical evidence from a clinical experiment and a case-control study on the hypothesis that beta-carotene protects against (cervical) cancer. The study population consisted of first authors of recently published patient-oriented research papers. They received an abstract of the clinical experiment, of the case-control study, or a "placebo" abstract. The latter was used to assess the specific effect of the empirical evidence in the two real studies. The change in belief in the hypotheses was expressed as a likelihood ratio (LR). All three abstracts led to a decrease in belief in the hypothesis. The median LRs of the abstracts of the experiement, case-control study and "placebo" were 0.33, 0.45, 0.75 respectively. This paper shows that the belief in a certain hypothesis is influenced by the quality of empirical evidence in a study. The magnitude of change induced by the experimental and case-control abstract had the anticipated order, but the change in belief induced by the "placebo" abstract was larger than we had expected. Reasons for this may be the concise information in the abstract and the variable methodological training of the study population

The impact of delirium in the prediction of In-Hospital Mortality in Intensive Care patients

Predictive models, such as acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE-II), are widely used in intensive care units (ICUs) to estimate mortality. Although the presence of delirium is associated with a higher mortality in ICU patients, delirium is not part of the APACHE-II model. The aim of the current study was to evaluate whether delirium, present within 24 hours after ICU admission, improves the predictive value of the APACHE-II score. Delirium in ICU patients present within 24 hours after ICU admission, is associated with increased in-hospital mortality. Adding delirium to the APACHE-II score does not improve its accuracy in predicting in-hospital mortality

Empty can and drop arm test in cuff rupture: Improved specificity after subacromial injection

 This study tries to validate the empty can test and drop arm test for cuff-rupture when assessed before and after subacromial injection of a corticosteroid with lidocain against ultrasound. Methods 50 Patients with subacromial impingement entered the study. During examination the empty can test and drop arm test were assessed. Patients received a subacromial injection and empty can and drop arm test and were reassessed. Results On ultrasound 6 cuff ruptures were found. Sensitivity of the empty can test decreased, whereas specificity improved. The sensitivity of the drop arm test did not change after injection whereas specificity improved after injection. Combining the tests resulted in an decrease in sensitivity and increase in specificity after injection.   Conclusions Specificity of the empty can and drop arm test increase after injection, while sensitivity remains the same. Combined results of empty can and drop arm test show intermediate sensitivity and high specificity without injection and low sensitivity and high specificity after injection.