A note on Hubbert's hypotheses and techniques

Many have attempted to forecast the date of the production peak and the volume of the ultimate reserves of a mineral commodity, using techniques derived from Hubbert's thesis. This note aims at exploring the scientific foundations and therefore the scope of validity of these forecasting techniques. Looking at the basic assumptions of Hubbert's thesis, it concludes that these techniques should not be used to forecast neither the peak (or plateau) of the annual production rate, nor the ultimate reserves of any mineral, unless given exceptional conditions.

EU Gas Supply Security: Unfinished Business

Four years after the gas supply crisis of January 2009, this paper looks at the market and policy changes that have changed the European gas situation, and their implications in terms of security of supply. Several positive developments are identified, including the byapssing of Ukraine by Gazprom-sponsored pipelines; the acceleration of import diversification in large markets of western Europe; the process of ‘commoditisation’ of natural gas in north-west Europe. The lack of meaningful progress in market integration between western and eastern-central Europe, however, leaves in place one of the main factors that made the 2009 crisis possible and conferred it its political significance. Overall, the European gas security situation has evolved in a positive direction mainly because of external forces, not EU policies

A note on Hubbert's hypotheses and techniques

CERNA WORKING PAPER SERIES 2011-03Many have attempted to forecast the date of the production peak and the volume of the ultimate reserves of a mineral commodity, using techniques derived from Hubbert's thesis. This note aims at exploring the scientific foundations and therefore the scope of validity of these forecasting techniques. Looking at the basic assumptions of Hubbert's thesis, it concludes that these techniques should not be used to forecast neither the peak (or plateau) of the annual production rate, nor the ultimate reserves of any mineral, unless given exceptional conditions