Statistical process control of mortality series in the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society (ANZICS) adult patient database: implications of the data generating process

for the ANZICS Centre for Outcome and Resource Evaluation (CORE) of the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society (ANZICS)BACKGROUND Statistical process control (SPC), an industrial sphere initiative, has recently been applied in health care and public health surveillance. SPC methods assume independent observations and process autocorrelation has been associated with increase in false alarm frequency. METHODS Monthly mean raw mortality (at hospital discharge) time series, 1995–2009, at the individual Intensive Care unit (ICU) level, were generated from the Australia and New Zealand Intensive Care Society adult patient database. Evidence for series (i) autocorrelation and seasonality was demonstrated using (partial)-autocorrelation ((P)ACF) function displays and classical series decomposition and (ii) “in-control” status was sought using risk-adjusted (RA) exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control limits (3 sigma). Risk adjustment was achieved using a random coefficient (intercept as ICU site and slope as APACHE III score) logistic regression model, generating an expected mortality series. Application of time-series to an exemplar complete ICU series (1995-(end)2009) was via Box-Jenkins methodology: autoregressive moving average (ARMA) and (G)ARCH ((Generalised) Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity) models, the latter addressing volatility of the series variance. RESULTS The overall data set, 1995-2009, consisted of 491324 records from 137 ICU sites; average raw mortality was 14.07%; average(SD) raw and expected mortalities ranged from 0.012(0.113) and 0.013(0.045) to 0.296(0.457) and 0.278(0.247) respectively. For the raw mortality series: 71 sites had continuous data for assessment up to or beyond lag ₄₀ and 35% had autocorrelation through to lag ₄₀; and of 36 sites with continuous data for ≥ 72 months, all demonstrated marked seasonality. Similar numbers and percentages were seen with the expected series. Out-of-control signalling was evident for the raw mortality series with respect to RA-EWMA control limits; a seasonal ARMA model, with GARCH effects, displayed white-noise residuals which were in-control with respect to EWMA control limits and one-step prediction error limits (3SE). The expected series was modelled with a multiplicative seasonal autoregressive model. CONCLUSIONS The data generating process of monthly raw mortality series at the ICU level displayed autocorrelation, seasonality and volatility. False-positive signalling of the raw mortality series was evident with respect to RA-EWMA control limits. A time series approach using residual control charts resolved these issues.John L Moran, Patricia J Solomo

Constitutive Type VI Secretion System Expression Gives Vibrio cholerae Intra- and Interspecific Competitive Advantages

The type VI secretion system (T6SS) mediates protein translocation across the cell membrane of Gram-negative bacteria, including Vibrio cholerae – the causative agent of cholera. All V. cholerae strains examined to date harbor gene clusters encoding a T6SS. Structural similarity and sequence homology between components of the T6SS and the T4 bacteriophage cell-puncturing device suggest that the T6SS functions as a contractile molecular syringe to inject effector molecules into prokaryotic and eukaryotic target cells. Regulation of the T6SS is critical. A subset of V. cholerae strains, including the clinical O37 serogroup strain V52, express T6SS constitutively. In contrast, pandemic strains impose tight control that can be genetically disrupted: mutations in the quorum sensing gene luxO and the newly described regulator gene tsrA lead to constitutive T6SS expression in the El Tor strain C6706. In this report, we examined environmental V. cholerae isolates from the Rio Grande with regard to T6SS regulation. Rough V. cholerae lacking O-antigen carried a nonsense mutation in the gene encoding the global T6SS regulator VasH and did not display virulent behavior towards Escherichia coli and other environmental bacteria. In contrast, smooth V. cholerae strains engaged constitutively in type VI-mediated secretion and displayed virulence towards prokaryotes (E. coli and other environmental bacteria) and a eukaryote (the social amoeba Dictyostelium discoideum). Furthermore, smooth V. cholerae strains were able to outcompete each other in a T6SS-dependent manner. The work presented here suggests that constitutive T6SS expression provides V. cholerae with an advantage in intraspecific and interspecific competition.Canadian Institutes of Health Research (Operating Grant MOP-84473)Alberta Heritage Foundation for Medical Research (Alberta Innovates-Health Solutions, Endowment Fund)National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (grant MD001091-01)National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (grant GM068855-02)Olegario V. Rana FellowshipAlberta Heritage Foundation for Medical Research (Alberta Innovates-Health Solutions Graduate Studentships

Protective effect of Arque-Ajeeb on acute experimental diarrhoea in rats

BACKGROUND: Diarrhoea is a major health problem for children worldwide, accounting for 5–8 million deaths each year. Arque-Ajeeb (AA) is a compound formulation of Unani medicine. It is reputed for its beneficial effects in the treatment of diarrhoea and cholera, but the claim of its efficacy is yet to be tested. Therefore the present study has been planned to investigate the real efficacy of this drug in rats. METHODS: The effect of Arque-Ajeeb was investigated for antidiarrhoeal activity against charcoal-induced gut transit, serotonin-induced diarrhoea and PGE(2)-induced small intestine enteropooling in rats. The control, standard and test groups of experimental animals were administered with normal saline (p.o.), diphenoxylate hydrochloride (5 mg/kg, p.o.) and Arque-Ajeeb (0.07 ml and 0.14 ml/kg, p.o.) respectively except the control group of PGE(2)-induced small intestine enteropooling which received only 5% ethanol in normal saline (i.p.). Charcoal (10 ml/kg, p.o.) and serotonin (600 μg/kg, i.p.) were administered after 30 min, while PGE(2 )(100 μg/kg, p.o.) was administered immediately afterwards. The distance traveled by charcoal in small intestine was measured after 15 and 30 min of charcoal administration, diarrhoea was observed every 30-min for six hour after serotonin administration and the volume of intestinal fluid was measured after 30 min of PGE(2 )administration. RESULTS: Arque-Ajeeb (0.07 ml and 0.14 ml/kg) significantly inhibited the frequency of defaecation and decreased the propulsion of charcoal meal through the gastrointestinal tract, reduced the wetness of faecal droppings in serotonin-induced diarrhoea and also reduced the PGE(2)-induced small intestine enteropooling. CONCLUSION: Arque-Ajeeb may have potential to reduce the diarrhoea in rats. Thus the drug may prove to be an alternate remedy in diarrhoea

Effect of a low fat versus a low carbohydrate weight loss dietary intervention on biomarkers of long term survival in breast cancer patients ('CHOICE'): study protocol

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Weight loss in overweight or obese breast cancer patients is associated with an improved prognosis for long term survival. However, it is not clear whether the macronutrient composition of the chosen weight loss dietary plan imparts further prognostic benefit. A study protocol is presented for a dietary intervention to investigate the effects of weight loss dietary patterns that vary markedly in fat and carbohydrate contents on biomarkers of exposure to metabolic processes that may promote tumorigenesis and that are predictive of long term survival. The study will also determine how much weight must be lost for biomarkers to change in a favorable direction.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>Approximately 370 overweight or obese postmenopausal breast cancer survivors (body mass index: 25.0 to 34.9 kg/m²) will be accrued and assigned to one of two weight loss intervention programs or a non-intervention control group. The dietary intervention is implemented in a free living population to test the two extremes of popular weight loss dietary patterns: a high carbohydrate, low fat diet versus a low carbohydrate, high fat diet. The effects of these dietary patterns on biomarkers for glucose homeostasis, chronic inflammation, cellular oxidation, and steroid sex hormone metabolism will be measured. Participants will attend 3 screening and dietary education visits, and 7 monthly one-on-one dietary counseling and clinical data measurement visits in addition to 5 group visits in the intervention arms. Participants in the control arm will attend two clinical data measurement visits at baseline and 6 months. The primary outcome is high sensitivity C-reactive protein. Secondary outcomes include interleukin-6, tumor necrosis factor-α, insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF), IGF binding protein-3, 8-isoprostane-F2-alpha, estrone, estradiol, progesterone, sex hormone binding globulin, adiponectin, and leptin.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>While clinical data indicate that excess weight for height is associated with poor prognosis for long term survival, little attention is paid to weight control in the clinical management of breast cancer. This study will provide information that can be used to answer important patient questions about the effects of dietary pattern and magnitude of weight loss on long term survival following breast cancer treatment.</p> <p>Clinical Trial Registration</p> <p>CA125243</p

The MRC National Survey of Health and Development reaches age 70: maintaining participation at older ages in a birth cohort study

A life course approach to ageing relies on maintaining participation rates in national birth cohorts and other long-term longitudinal studies. This reduces the risk of selective attrition biasing associations between lifetime risk factors and health outcomes in later life and ensures the studies remain as representative as possible of the original population. We report the participation patterns for a postal questionnaire and home visit at 68–69 years of study members in the MRC National Survey of Health and Development, the oldest and longest-running British birth cohort study. We investigated how participation varied by lifetime and recent contact, health status, previous clinical feedback and study engagement, taking account of prior socioeconomic and cognitive characteristics. Overall participation and home visit participation remained high (94 and 80%, respectively) and there were no gender differences. Participation was higher in those with higher levels of prior contact and lower in those with the poorest health status. Having previously received clinical feedback on actionable blood results was associated with reduced home visit participation but other forms of clinical feedback were not associated with subsequent participation. Activities that fostered study engagement were associated with increased home visit participation. These findings inform strategies to maintain participation in life course studies