Ideology, Competence and Luck: What determines general election results?

This paper investigates the impact of luck, defined as global economic growth, and competence, defined as the difference between domestic and world growth, on voting in general elections since 1960. The vote of incumbent parties of the right is found to be sensitive to luck, whereas that of incumbent parties of the left is not. This is consistent with the Clientele Hypothesis given electorates which fail to perfectly distinguish luck from competence. Economic competence plays a strong role in determining the vote, especially in high-income democracies. The electoral reward to competence is essentially equal across parties of either ideology, contra to the Saliency Hypothesis. The data are also supportive of the Territory Hypothesis, namely that greater ideological territory increases a party's relative vote share.voting, ideology, luck, competence

Party Activists, Campaign Funding and the Quality of Government

We study the formation of government policy in democracies when turnout depends on party activists and campaign spending ‐ parties’ ‘political capital’. The functional importance of political capital determines equilibrium rent-seeking in government. Often the more potent political capital is the greater the extent of rent-seeking. Limiting the level of political capital is distinct from reducing its potency, and whereas we find a strong case for reducing potency we find that placing limits on campaign spending are rarely optimal, and in particular that weak limits are never optimal. A limit on total campaign spending can increase government quality under certain conditions and if so then strong limits are always better than weak limits. However, finite limits on either national or local campaign spending alone, as often seen in practice, are never optimal.Party activists, campaign funding, rent-seeking, political finance

The Production Function for Votes

The Vote Production Function (VPF) has a party's vote depending on (a) its potential vote and (b) the party organization which actualizes it - 'political capital'. Empirical work suggests that moving to the centre would increase your vote if only you could hold political capital constant. The relative weights of the factors in the VPF will determine whether parties converge or polarize ideologically and politicians' rent-seeking behaviour. In most cases, the more important political capital is, the greater the extent of rent seeking. There is thus a welfare case for sidelining party organizations. Compulsory voting might help.voting, ideological equilibria, rent-seeking

Voting and the macroeconomy: separating trend from cycle

Voters respond differently to trend growth as opposed to economic cycles in GDP. When assessing incumbent competence the rational voter filters out economic cycles when they are the product of external shocks but rewards strong trend growth over the previous term of office. Voters also respond to policy platforms, and parties closest to the median voter have an advantage à la Downs (1957). This advantage is theorized to be heightened in times of recession. Using data from elections in OECD countries and a much more exacting econometric specification than used in previous analyses we find robust evidence of a positive vote response to strong performance in trend growth. We also find evidence to support the hypothesis that centralizing garners additional votes during recession.economic voting, competence, median voter, voter rationality

Natural, un-natural and detached mimicry

Natural mimicry is ubiquitous. Plants mimic animals, animals mimic plants, animals mimic each other and animals may even mimic counterfactual states that deceive or distract other animals. Almost all natural mimicry is based on iconicity which hence anchors it in real world resemblances. The vast majority of natural mimicry is done unconsciously but when humans mimic, they know what they are doing. As Merlin Donald suggest, mimicry may in fact have played a crucial role in the emergence of the human condition, allowing new forms of cognition to emerge. Here it is suggested that the role played by mimicry may have involved the evolution of a capacity for metaphorical perception, where an object may not only be seen ‘as is’ but also ‘as if’ it was a functional mimic of something else. This new form of mimicry made possible new forms of communication, co-operation and creative engagement with the environment. Once these developed to the point where they produced symbolic systems and other cultural tools, the nature of human mimicry expanded radically. No longer anchored in resemblance, it became detached and qualitatively distinct from natural forms. The consequences of this detachment are now becoming clear

Behind the cube rule: implications of, and evidence against a fractal electoral geography

In 1909 Parker Smith showed that the ratio of seats won by the two major parties in Britain was close to the cube of the ratio of their votes. Taagepera and Shugart argue, wrongly, that a fractal electoral map implies this. In fact their premises imply that the seats’ ratio will be the votes’ ratio to the power of 3 , not 3. However, in the six countries we examine, the figure is between 2 and 3. This implies that the electoral map is nonfractal, political allegiances becoming less ‘clustered’ as you move from a macro to a micro scale. Taking the U.K., we ask if this is due to the geographical pattern of income distribution, and find that this is even further away from fractality than is voting. This fits the well-known ‘chameleon effect’ whereby poor (rich) people in rich (poor) constituencies vote as if richer (poorer) than they really are.fractal, election, voting, cubic.

Carbonisation of biomass-derived chars and the thermal reduction of a graphene oxide sample studied using Raman spectroscopy

Chars and carbonised chars were produced from three different oxygen-rich precursors (Pinus radiata wood, Phormium tenax leaf fibres, and sucrose crystals). These non-graphitisable carbons were analysed with Raman spectroscopy in order to study the nanostructural development which occurs with increasingly severe heat treatments up to approximately 1000 °C. The thermal reduction of a graphene oxide sample was similarly studied, as this is considered to involve the development of nanometre-scale graphene-like domains within a different oxygen-rich precursor. Increasing the heat treatment temperatures used in the charring and carbonisation processes, led to significant changes in a number of parameters measured in the Raman spectra. Correlations based on these parameter changes could have future applications in evaluating various char samples and estimating the heat treatment temperatures employed during their manufacture. After production heat treatment temperatures exceeded 700 °C, the Raman spectra of the carbonised chars appeared to be largely precursor independent. The spectra of these carbonised chars were similar to the spectra obtained from thermally-reduced graphene oxides, especially when compared to a wide range of other carbonaceous materials analysed using this particular methodology. Partial reduction of a graphene oxide sample due to reasonably mild laser exposures during Raman analysis was also observed

MUNICIPAL CORPORATIONS - STATUS OF A CITY MANAGER - ARE HIS FUNCTIONS PRIMARILY EXECUTIVE OR LEGISLATIVE?

When defendant city adopted the city-manager form of municipal government, it duly abolished by ordinance the board of police and fire commissioners and expressly assigned the board\u27s powers and duties to the city manager. Among such powers was that of recommending salary decreases for firemen and policemen, without which recommendation a decrease by action of the council was invalid. After the abolition of the board of police and .fire commissioners, the council decreased the salary of plaintiff policeman without previous recommendation by the city manager. Plaintiff claimed that such action was invalid, and sued to recover the amount of the salary decrease. Held, that prior recommendation by the city manager was not necessary, since the power to recommend decreases was legislative and being such could not be assigned to the city manager, it being the intent of the legislature to make the city manager an administrative officer. Webb v. City of Beloit, 229 Wis. 51, 281 N. W. 662 (1938)

NEGLIGENCE - CONTRIBUTORY NEGLIGENCE - STANDARD OF CARE - OBJECTIVE OR SUBJECTIVE?

While anchoring a guy wire for a hay carrier on his farm, plaintiff suffered injuries caused by contact between the guy wire and a high tension line owned by defendant. After an answer denying negligence and setting up the defense of contributory negligence on the part of plaintiff, defendant had a directed verdict. Held, that the alleged contributory negligence of plaintiff was a question of fact for the jury which was to be guided by the standard of care of the ordinary, careful, prudent man in the situation of the injured party in all respects, the court saying, We think it well settled that, in determining whether a plaintiff in a particular case was guilty of contributory negligence, the knowledge and experience of such plaintiff and the appreciation which he should have had of the danger must be taken into consideration. Aller v. Iowa Electric Light & Power Co., (Iowa, 1938) 283 N. W. 81 at 85