Comorbidity of eczema, rhinitis, and asthma in IgE-sensitised and non-IgE-sensitised children in MeDALL: a population-based cohort study

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Environmental drivers of spatio-Temporal dynamics in floodplain vegetation: grasslands as habitat for megafauna in Bardia National Park (Nepal)

Disturbance-dependent grasslands, often associated with hydromorphological and fire dynamics, are threatened, especially in subtropical climates. In the Nepalese and Indian Terai Arc Landscape at the foot of the Himalayas, natural and cultural grasslands serve a viable role for greater one-horned rhinoceros (Rhinoceros unicornis) and for grazers that form prey of the Royal Bengal tiger (Panthera tigris). The grasslands are vulnerable to encroachment of forest. We aimed to establish the effects of environmental drivers, in particular river discharge, river channel dynamics, precipitation and forest fires, on the spatio-Temporal dynamics of these grasslands. The study area is the floodplain of the eastern branch of the Karnali River and adjacent western part of Bardia National Park. We created annual time series (1993-2019) of land cover with the use of field data, remotely sensed LANDSAT imagery and a supervised classification model. Additionally, we analysed the pattern of grassland patches and aerial photographs of 1964. Between 1964 and 2019, grassland patches decreased in abundance and size due to encroachment of forest. Outside the floodplain, conversion of grassland to bare substrate coincides with extreme precipitation events. Within the floodplain, conversion of grassland to bare substrate correlates with the magnitude of the annual peak discharge of the bifurcated Karnali River. Since 2009, however, this correlation is absent due to a shift of the main discharge channel to the western branch of the Karnali River. Consequently, alluvial tall grasslands (Saccharum spontaneum dominant) have vastly expanded between 2009 and 2019. Because the hydromorphological processes in the floodplain have become more static, other sources of disturbances-local flooding of ephemeral streams, anthropogenic maintenance, grazing and fires-are more paramount to prevent encroachment of grasslands. Altogether, our findings underscore that a change in the environmental drivers impact the surface area and heterogeneity of grassland patches in the landscape, which can lead to cascading effects for the grassland-dependent megafauna

Spatial and seasonal variability of sediment accumulation potential through controlled flooding of the beels located in the polders of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta of Southwest Bangladesh

The Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta plain within Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable to relative sea level rise (RSLR) in the world especially under current anthropogenically modified (i.e., embanked) conditions. Tidal river management (TRM) as practiced in coastal regions of Bangladesh may provide an opportunity to combat RSLR by raising the land level through controlled sedimentation inside beels (depression within embanked polders) with re-opening of polders. To date, TRM has been applied to tide-dominated coastal regions, but the potential applicability of TRM for the beels within the polders of river-dominated and mixed flow (MF) regimes remains to be assessed. We apply a calibrated 2D numerical hydromorphodynamic model to quantify sediment deposition in a beel flooded through breaching of the polder dike under conditions of river-dominated, tide-dominated and MF regimes for different seasons and applying different regulation schemes for the flow into the beel. Simulation results show considerable seasonality in sediment deposition with largest deposition during the monsoon season. The potential of controlled flooding is highest in the tide-dominated region, where sediment accumulation can be up to 28 times higher than in the river-dominated region. Regulating flow into a beel increases trapping efficiency, but results in slightly lower total deposition than without regulation. We conclude that re-establishing flooding of the beel within the polder without regulating the flow into the beel through breaching of the polder dike is a promising strategy for the mixed and tide-dominated flow regions in the delta as the sediment accumulation can raise the land surface at a higher rate than RSLR and effective SLR (ESLR). In the more upstream river-dominated section of the delta, accumulation rates would be much lower, but the pressure of sea level rise on these areas is lower as well. Owing to the abundant availability of sediment, application of controlled flooding like TRM therefore provides an opportunity to counteract the impact of RSLR and ESLR by means of land raising, particularly along the tidal river reaches in the GBM delta

North Atlantic Oscillation seesaw effect in leaf morphological records from dwarf birch shrubs in Greenland and Finland

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) determines wind speed and direction, seasonal heat, moisture transport, storm tracks, cloudiness and sea-ice cover through atmospheric mass balance shifts between the Arctic and the subtropical Atlantic. The NAO is characterized by the typical, yet insufficiently understood, seesaw pattern of warmer winter and spring temperatures over Scandinavia and cooler temperatures over Greenland during the positive phase of the NAO, and vice versa during the negative phase. We tested the potential to reconstruct NAO variation beyond the meteorological record through the application of a microphenological proxy. We measured the Undulation Index (UI) in Betula nana epidermal cells from herbarium leaf samples and fossil peat fragments dating back to 1865—exceeding most meteorological records in the Arctic—to estimate imprints of spring thermal properties and NAO in Greenland and Finland. We found negative relations between Greenland UI and late winter, spring and early summer NAO, and mostly positive, but not significant, relations between Finland UI and NAO in years with pronounced NAO expression. The direction of the UI response in this common circumpolar species is, therefore, likely in line with the NAO seesaw effect, with leaf development response to NAO fluctuations in northern Europe opposing the response in Greenland and vice versa. Increased knowledge of the UI response to climate may contribute to understanding ecological properties of key Arctic species, whilst additionally providing a proxy for NAO dynamics

Strategies to improve the explanatory power of a dynamic slope stability model by enhancing land cover parameterisation and model complexity

Despite the importance of land cover on landscape hydrology and slope stability, the representation of land cover dynamics in physically based models and their associated ecohydrological effects on slope stability is rather scarce. In this study, we assess the impact of different levels of complexity in land cover parameterisation on the explanatory power of a dynamic and process‐based spatial slope stability model. Firstly, we present available and collected data sets and account for the stepwise parameterisation of the model. Secondly, we present approaches to simulate land cover: 1) a grassland landscape without forest coverage; 2) spatially static forest conditions, in which we assume limited knowledge about forest composition; 3) more detailed information of forested areas based on the computation of leaf area development and the implementation of vegetation‐related processes; 4) similar to the third approach but with the additional consideration of the spatial expansion and vertical growth of vegetation. Lastly, the model is calibrated based on meteorological data sets and groundwater measurements. The model results are quantitatively validated for two landslide‐triggering events that occurred in Western Austria. Predictive performances are estimated using the Area Under the receiver operating characteristic Curve (AUC). Our findings indicate that the performance of the slope stability model was strongly determined by model complexity and land cover parameterisation. The implementation of leaf area development and land cover dynamics further yield an acceptable predictive performance (AUC ~0.71‐0.75) and a better conservativeness of the predicted unstable areas (FoC ~0.71). The consideration of dynamic land cover expansion provided better performances than the solely consideration of leaf area development. The results of this study highlight that an increase of effort in the land cover parameterisation of a dynamic slope stability model can increase the explanatory power of the model.© 2018 The Author

Dry seasons and dry years amplify the Amazon and Congo forests’ rainfall self-reliance

Rainfall is a key determinant of tropical rainforest resilience in South America and Africa, of which a substantial amount originates from terrestrial and forest evaporation through moisture recycling. Both continents face deforestation that reduces evaporation and thus dampens the water cycle, and climate change that increases the risk of water-stress induced forest loss. Hence, it is important to understand the influence of forest moisture supply for forest rainfall during dry periods. Here, we analyze mean-years and dry-years dry-season anomalies of moisture recycling in the South American (Amazon) and African rainforests (Congo) over the years 1980-2013. Annual average reliance of forest rainfall on their own moisture supply (ρfor) is 26 % in the Amazon and 28% in the Congo forest. In dry seasons, this ratio increases by 7% (or ~2 percentage points) in the Amazon and up to 30 % (or ~8 percentage points) in Congo. Dry years further amplify dry season ρfor in both regions by 4-5 %. In both Amazon and Congo, dry season amplification of ρfor are strongest in regions with a high mean annual ρfor. In the Amazon, forest rainfall self-reliance has declined over time, and in both Amazon and Congo, the fraction of forest evaporation that recycles as forest rainfall has declined over time. At country scale, dry season ρfor can differ drastically from mean annual ρfor (e.g., in Bolivia and Gabon, mean annual ρfor is ~30% while dry season ρfor is ~50 %). Dry period amplification of ρfor illuminates additional risks of deforestation as well as opportunities from forest conservation and restoration, and is essential to consider for understanding upwind forest change impacts on downwind rainfall at both regional and national scales

Data underlying the publication: "Identifying trait-based tolerance to sediment dynamics during seedling establishment across eight mangrove species"

Growth and survival data of seedlings of eight mangrove species that were tested during a sediment dynamics experiment. With R script that carries out the analyses described in the paper. We set out to learn if species have different accretion and erosion thresholds, and if three different traits provide an advantage in establishing in a sedimentary dynamic environment.   We used a mesocosm experiment to create sediment accretion and erosion rates that are common in the mangrove forest fringe pioneer zone and measured how these treatments impact the growth and survival of eight mangrove species that co-occur in south China.  The species cover a range of three propagule traits: successional stage (ranging from low-elevation pioneers to high-elevation climax species), propagule size, and type of embryo developments (non-viviparous, cryptoviviparous or viviparous. </p

Data underlying the publication: "Identifying trait-based tolerance to sediment dynamics during seedling establishment across eight mangrove species"

Growth and survival data of seedlings of eight mangrove species that were tested during a sediment dynamics experiment. With R script that carries out the analyses described in the paper. We set out to learn if species have different accretion and erosion thresholds, and if three different traits provide an advantage in establishing in a sedimentary dynamic environment.   We used a mesocosm experiment to create sediment accretion and erosion rates that are common in the mangrove forest fringe pioneer zone and measured how these treatments impact the growth and survival of eight mangrove species that co-occur in south China.  The species cover a range of three propagule traits: successional stage (ranging from low-elevation pioneers to high-elevation climax species), propagule size, and type of embryo developments (non-viviparous, cryptoviviparous or viviparous. </p

A new setup to study the influence of plant growth on the consolidation of dredged cohesive sediment

Dredged cohesive sediment is progressively being used for wetland construction. However, little is known about the effect of plant growth during the self-weight consolidation of this sediment. In order to check the feasibility of such a study, a new experimental setup has been constructed. As an example, the effect of Phragmites australis on the consolidation and drainage of dredged sediment from Lake Markermeer, the Netherlands was investigated. The changes in pore water pressures at 10 cm depth intervals during a 129-day period in a column with and without plants were measured, while the water level was fixed at a constant level. Water loss via evaporation and plant transpiration was measured using Mariotte bottles and the photosynthetic processes — including plant transpiration — were measured with a LI-COR photosynthesis system. The results show that several processes initiated by Phragmites australis interfere with the physical processes involved in sediment drainage and consolidation. Phragmites australis effectively altered the pore pressure gradient via water extraction, especially between 40 and 60 cm from the bottom of the column. In this zone, daily cycles in pore pressures were observed which could directly be linked to the diurnal cycle of stomatal gas exchange. On average, water loss via evaporation and transpiration of leaves of Phragmites australis amounted to 3.9 mm day−1, whereas evaporation of bare soil amounted on average to 0.6 mm day−1. The depth-averaged hydraulic conductivity increased on average by 40% in presence of Phragmites australis. This pilot experiment confirms that the pressures sensors coupled with the new set-up enable to study pore pressure development over time and to link the effect of plant growth with alterations in water pressures profiles. A more systematic study with this set-up will in the future enable to quantify the effects of plant growth on consolidation

Exploring river nitrogen and phosphorus loading and export to global coastal waters in the Shared Socio-economic pathways

This global spatially explicit (0.5 by 0.5 degree) analysis presents the nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) inputs, processing and biogeochemical retention and delivery to surface waters and river export to coastal seas according to the five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP). Four systems are considered: (i) human system; (ii) agriculture; (iii) aquaculture; (iv) nature. Exploring the changes during 1980–2015 and 2015–2050 according to the SSPs shows that the natural nutrient sources have been declining in the past decades and will continue to decline in all SSPs in future decades due to massive land transformations, while agriculture, human sewage and aquaculture are becoming increasingly dominant (globally up to 80% of nutrient delivery). More efforts than those employed in any of the SSPs are needed to slow down the global nutrient cycles. One of the drivers of the proliferation of harmful algal blooms is the tendency towards increasing N:P ratios in global freshwaters and export to the global coastal seas; this is the result of increasing N:P in inputs in food production, more efficient biogeochemical retention of P than of N in river basins, and groundwater N legacies, which seems to be most pronounced in a united world that strives after sustainability. The diverging strategies to achieve UN Sustainable Development Goals 14 (life below water), 2 (zero hunger) and 6 (clean water and sanitation) therefore require a balanced management system for both N and P in all systems, that accounts for future nutrient legacies