3 research outputs found
Sustainable transport policies under scarcity of oil supply
A strategic land-use–transport interaction model is used
to investigate the impacts of policies in technology,
infrastructure, pricing and regulation under different
assumptions about energy supply. Six scenarios have
been defined, analysing three policy strategies in two
different contexts of energy supply—A, generally
accepted energy supply forecast and B, worst-case
energy supply forecast (scarcity of energy). Policies
include: business as usual; investment in infrastructure
and technology; and a demand regulation based
approach involving changes in taxation and tolls. The
paper assesses the impact and robustness of each policy
against assumptions about future oil supply/demand.
Our results demonstrate three key issues. First, scarcity
of oil will accelerate the development and take-up of
alternative fuel technologies; second, investment in
alternative technologies alone will alleviate the impact of
local emissions and reduce energy consumption per
kilometre travelled but will only reduce yearly carbon
dioxide (CO2) emissions after a time lag of about
15 years; so that, third, some form of regulation of
demand will be necessary to reduce total emissions and externalities caused by congestion. Research is
required to define the necessary level of regulation in
combination with technology investments. However, we
suggest that a policy involving improvements in
infrastructure coupled with investments in fuel
technology and differentiated fuel taxes will be required
in the future
Overview of Land Use Transport Models
The previous chapters in this Handbook have shown that spatial development, or land use, determines the need for spatial interaction, or transport, but that transport, by the accessibility it provides, also determines spatial development. However, it is difficult to empirically isolate impacts of land use on transport and vice versa because of the multitude of concurrent changes of other factors. This poses a problem if the likely impacts of integrated land-use and transport policies to reduce the demand for travel are to be predicted. There are principally three methods to predict those impacts. The first is to ask people how they would change their location and mobility behaviour if certain factors, such as land use regulations or transport costs, would change ('stated preference'). The second consists of drawing conclusions from observed decision behaviour of people under different conditions on how they would be likely to behave if these factors would change ('revealed preference'). The third method is to simulate human decision behaviour in mathematical models. All three methods have their advantages and disadvantages. Surveys can reveal also subjective factors of location and mobility decisions, however, their respondents can only make conjec-tures about how they would behave in still unknown situations, and the validity of such con
A Dynamic Model to Appraise Strategic Land-Use and Transport Policies.
This paper presents a framework for an ex ante appraisal of urban land use and transport
strategies. At the core of this framework is a dynamic land use and transport interaction
model. Objective functions and an optimisation routine are used to assess the effects of
complex strategies formed by policy instrument combinations with different policy levels
possible. The main objective of the underlying study is to promote sustainable policies.
Therefore the proposed framework considers either explicitly or implicitly all five domains of
the STELLA focus group 4 (environment, safety, health, land use and congestion)