Sustainable transport policies under scarcity of oil supply

A strategic land-use–transport interaction model is used to investigate the impacts of policies in technology, infrastructure, pricing and regulation under different assumptions about energy supply. Six scenarios have been defined, analysing three policy strategies in two different contexts of energy supply—A, generally accepted energy supply forecast and B, worst-case energy supply forecast (scarcity of energy). Policies include: business as usual; investment in infrastructure and technology; and a demand regulation based approach involving changes in taxation and tolls. The paper assesses the impact and robustness of each policy against assumptions about future oil supply/demand. Our results demonstrate three key issues. First, scarcity of oil will accelerate the development and take-up of alternative fuel technologies; second, investment in alternative technologies alone will alleviate the impact of local emissions and reduce energy consumption per kilometre travelled but will only reduce yearly carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions after a time lag of about 15 years; so that, third, some form of regulation of demand will be necessary to reduce total emissions and externalities caused by congestion. Research is required to define the necessary level of regulation in combination with technology investments. However, we suggest that a policy involving improvements in infrastructure coupled with investments in fuel technology and differentiated fuel taxes will be required in the future

Overview of Land Use Transport Models

The previous chapters in this Handbook have shown that spatial development, or land use, determines the need for spatial interaction, or transport, but that transport, by the accessibility it provides, also determines spatial development. However, it is difficult to empirically isolate impacts of land use on transport and vice versa because of the multitude of concurrent changes of other factors. This poses a problem if the likely impacts of integrated land-use and transport policies to reduce the demand for travel are to be predicted. There are principally three methods to predict those impacts. The first is to ask people how they would change their location and mobility behaviour if certain factors, such as land use regulations or transport costs, would change ('stated preference'). The second consists of drawing conclusions from observed decision behaviour of people under different conditions on how they would be likely to behave if these factors would change ('revealed preference'). The third method is to simulate human decision behaviour in mathematical models. All three methods have their advantages and disadvantages. Surveys can reveal also subjective factors of location and mobility decisions, however, their respondents can only make conjec-tures about how they would behave in still unknown situations, and the validity of such con

A Dynamic Model to Appraise Strategic Land-Use and Transport Policies.

This paper presents a framework for an ex ante appraisal of urban land use and transport strategies. At the core of this framework is a dynamic land use and transport interaction model. Objective functions and an optimisation routine are used to assess the effects of complex strategies formed by policy instrument combinations with different policy levels possible. The main objective of the underlying study is to promote sustainable policies. Therefore the proposed framework considers either explicitly or implicitly all five domains of the STELLA focus group 4 (environment, safety, health, land use and congestion)