What we talk about when we talk about numbers

In this paper, I describe and motivate a new species of mathematical structuralism, which I call Instrumental Nominalism about Set-Theoretic Structuralism. As the name suggests, this approach takes standard Set-Theoretic Structuralism of the sort championed by Bourbaki and removes its ontological commitments by taking an instrumental nominalist approach to that ontology of the sort described by Joseph Melia and Gideon Rosen. I argue that this avoids all of the problems that plague other versions of structuralism

Transformative experience and the knowledge norms for action: Moss on Paul’s challenge to decision theory

to appear in Lambert, E. and J. Schwenkler (eds.) Transformative Experience (OUP) L. A. Paul (2014, 2015) argues that the possibility of epistemically transformative experiences poses serious and novel problems for the orthodox theory of rational choice, namely, expected utility theory — I call her argument the Utility Ignorance Objection. In a pair of earlier papers, I responded to Paul’s challenge (Pettigrew 2015, 2016), and a number of other philosophers have responded in similar ways (Dougherty, et al. 2015, Harman 2015) — I call our argument the Fine-Graining Response. Paul has her own reply to this response, which we might call the Authenticity Reply. But Sarah Moss has recently offered an alternative reply to the Fine-Graining Response on Paul’s behalf (Moss 2017) — we’ll call it the No Knowledge Reply. This appeals to the knowledge norm of action, together with Moss’ novel and intriguing account of probabilistic knowledge. In this paper, I consider Moss’ reply and argue that it fails. I argue first that it fails as a reply made on Paul’s behalf, since it forces us to abandon many of the features of Paul’s challenge that make it distinctive and with which Paul herself is particularly concerned. Then I argue that it fails as a reply independent of its fidelity to Paul’s intentions

On the Expected Utility Objection to the Dutch Book Argument for Probabilism

The Dutch Book Argument for Probabilism assumes Ramsey's Thesis (RT), which purports to determine the prices an agent is rationally required to pay for a bet. Recently, a new objection to Ramsey's Thesis has emerged (Hedden 2013, Wronski & Godziszewski 2017, Wronski 2018)--I call this the Expected Utility Objection. According to this objection, it is Maximise Subjective Expected Utility (MSEU) that determines the prices an agent is required to pay for a bet, and this often disagrees with Ramsey's Thesis. I suggest two responses to Hedden's objection. First, we might be permissive: agents are permitted to pay any price that is required or permitted by RT, and they are permitted to pay any price that is required or permitted by MSEU. This allows us to give a revised version of the Dutch Book Argument for Probabilism, which I call the Permissive Dutch Book Argument. Second, I suggest that even the proponent of the Expected Utility Objection should admit that RT gives the correct answer in certain very limited cases, and I show that, together with MSEU, this very restricted version of RT gives a new pragmatic argument for Probabilism, which I call the Bookless Pragmatic Argument

On interpretations of bounded arithmetic and bounded set theory

In a recent paper, Kaye and Wong proved the following result, which they considered to belong to the folklore of mathematical logic. THEOREM: The first-order theories of Peano arithmetic and ZF with the axiom of infinity negated are bi-interpretable: that is, they are mutually interpretable with interpretations that are inverse to each other. In this note, I describe a theory of sets that stands in the same relation to the bounded arithmetic IDelta0 + exp. Because of the weakness of this theory of sets, I cannot straightforwardly adapt Kaye and Wong's interpretation of arithmetic in set theory. Instead, I am forced to produce a different interpretation.Comment: 12 pages; section on omega-models removed due to error; references added and typos correcte

On the Accuracy of Group Credences

to appear in Szabó Gendler, T. & J. Hawthorne (eds.) Oxford Studies in Epistemology volume 6 We often ask for the opinion of a group of individuals. How strongly does the scientific community believe that the rate at which sea levels are rising increased over the last 200 years? How likely does the UK Treasury think it is that there will be a recession if the country leaves the European Union? What are these group credences that such questions request? And how do they relate to the individual credences assigned by the members of the particular group in question? According to the credal judgment aggregation principle, Linear Pooling, the credence function of a group should be a weighted average or linear pool of the credence functions of the individuals in the group. In this paper, I give an argument for Linear Pooling based on considerations of accuracy. And I respond to two standard objections to the aggregation principle

A Systematic Review of Cases of Meningitis in the Absence of Cerebrospinal Fluid Pleocytosis on Lumbar Puncture

Background: Definitive diagnosis of meningitis is made by analysis of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) culture or polymerase chain reaction (PCR) obtained from a lumbar puncture (LP), which may take days. A timelier diagnostic clue of meningitis is pleocytosis on CSF analysis. However, meningitis may occur in the absence of pleocytosis on CSF. Areas of Uncertainty: A diagnosis of meningitis seems less likely without pleocytosis on CSF, leading clinicians to prematurely exclude this. Further, there is little available literature on the subject.Methods: Ovid/Medline and Google Scholar search was conducted for cases of CSF culture-confirmed meningitis with lack of pleocytosis. Inclusion criterion was reported cases of CSF culture-positive or PCR positive meningitis in the absence of pleocytosis on LP. Exclusion criteria were pleocytosis on CSF, cases in which CSF cultures/PCR were not performed, and articles that did not include CSF laboratory values.Results: A total of 124 cases from 51 articles were included. Causative organisms were primarily bacterial (99 cases). Outcome was reported in 86 cases, 27 of which died and 59 survived. Mortality in viral, fungal and bacterial organisms was 0, 56 and 31%, respectively. The overall percentage of positive initial CSF PCR/culture for viral, fungal and bacterial organisms was 100, 89 and 82%, respectively. Blood cultures were performed in 79 of the 124 cases, 56 (71%) of which ultimately cultured the causative organism. In addition to bacteremia, concomitant sources of infection occurred in 17 cases.Conclusions: Meningitis in the absence of pleocytosis on CSF is rare. If this occurs, causative organism is likely bacterial. We recommend ordering blood cultures as an adjunct, and, if clinically relevant, concomitant sources of infection should be sought. If meningitis is suspected, empiric antibiotics/antifungals should be administered regardless of initial WBC count on lumbar puncture

Who needs engine monitoring?

Operational evaluations of engine monitoring systems (EMS) are discussed. Options for each required EMS phase are reviewed along with the guidance provided for EMS on new systems

Hearing and Echolocation in the Australian Grey Swiftlet, Collocalia Spodiopygia

The frequency sensitivity of hearing in the grey swiftlet, Collocalia spodiopygia, was determined by neuronal recordings from the auditory midbrain (MLD). The most sensitive best frequency response thresholds occurred between 0.8 and 4.7 kHz, with the upper frequency limit near 6 kHz. Spectral analysis of echolocation click pairs revealed energy peaks between 3.0 and 8.0kHz for the foreclick, compared to 4.0-6.0 kHz for the principal click. The relationship between good hearing sensitivity and click energy peaks in the swiftlet extends about an octave higher than it does in the oilbird (Steatornis caripensis)

Bank deposit growth in the Eighth Federal Reserve District

Federal Reserve District, 8th ; Bank deposits