Complete Endoscopic Healing Is Associated With Lower Relapse Risk After Anti-TNF Withdrawal in Inflammatory Bowel Disease

Background & Aims: Discontinuation of anti–tumor necrosis factor-α treatment (anti-TNF) (infliximab and adalimumab) in patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is associated with a high relapse risk that may be influenced by endoscopic activity at the time of stopping. We assessed the relapse rate after anti-TNF withdrawal in patients with endoscopic healing and studied predictors of relapse including the depth of endoscopic healing. Methods: This was a multicenter, prospective study in adult patients with Crohn's disease (CD), ulcerative colitis (UC), or IBD-unclassified (IBDU), with ≥6 months of corticosteroid-free clinical remission (confirmed at baseline) and endoscopic healing (Mayo <2/SES-CD <5 without large ulcers), who discontinued anti-TNF between 2018 and 2020 in the Netherlands. We performed Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analyses to assess the relapse rate and evaluate potential predictors: partial (Mayo 1/SES-CD 3–4) versus complete (Mayo 0/SES-CD 0–2) endoscopic healing, anti-TNF trough levels, and immunomodulator and/or mesalamine use. Results: Among 81 patients (CD: n = 41, 51%) with a median follow-up of 2.0 years (interquartile range, 1.6–2.1), 40 patients (49%) relapsed. Relapse rates in CD and UC/IBDU patients were comparable. At 12 months, 70% versus 35% of patients with partial versus complete endoscopic healing relapsed, respectively (adjusted hazard rate [aHR], 3.28; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.43–7.50). Mesalamine use was associated with fewer relapses in UC/IBDU patients (aHR, 0.08; 95% CI, 0.01–0.67). Thirty patients restarted anti-TNF, and clinical remission was regained in 73% at 3 months. Conclusions: The relapse risk was high after anti-TNF withdrawal in IBD patients with endoscopic healing, but remission was regained in most cases after anti-TNF reintroduction. Complete endoscopic healing and mesalamine treatment in UC/IBDU patients decreased the risk of relapse

No association between educational level and pancreatic cancer incidence in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition.

INTRODUCTION: Until now, studies examining the relationship between socioeconomic status and pancreatic cancer incidence have been inconclusive. AIM: To prospectively investigate to what extent pancreatic cancer incidence varies according to educational level within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. METHODS: In the EPIC study, socioeconomic status at baseline was measured using the highest level of education attained. Hazard ratios by educational level and a summary index, the relative indices of inequality (RII), were estimated using Cox regression models stratified by age, gender, and center and adjusted for known risk factors. In addition, we conducted separate analyses by age, gender and geographical region. RESULTS: Within the source population of 407, 944 individuals at baseline, 490 first incident primary pancreatic adenocarcinoma cases were identified in 9 European countries. The crude difference in risk of pancreatic cancer according to level of education was small and not statistically significant (RII=1.14, 95% CI 0.80-1.62). Adjustment for known risk factors reduced the inequality estimates to only a small extent. In addition, no statistically significant associations were observed for age groups (adjusted RII(≤ 60 years)=0.85, 95% CI 0.44-1.64, adjusted RII(>60 years)=1.18, 95% CI 0.73-1.90), gender (adjusted RII(male)=1.20, 95% CI 0.68-2.10, adjusted RII(female)=0.96, 95% CI 0.56-1.62) or geographical region (adjusted RII(Northern Europe)=1.14, 95% CI 0.81-1.61, adjusted RII(Middle Europe)=1.72, 95% CI 0.93-3.19, adjusted RII(Southern Europe)=0.75, 95% CI 0.32-1.80). CONCLUSION: Despite large educational inequalities in many risk factors within the EPIC study, we found no evidence for an association between educational level and the risk of developing pancreatic cancer in this European cohort

Validation and update of a prediction model for risk of relapse after cessation of anti-TNF treatment in Crohn's disease

BACKGROUND : Anti-tumor necrosis factor (TNF) therapy is effective for the treatment of Crohn's disease. Cessation may be considered in patients with a low risk of relapse. We aimed to externally validate and update our previously developed prediction model to estimate the risk of relapse after cessation of anti-TNF therapy. METHODS : We performed a retrospective cohort study in 17 Dutch hospitals. Crohn's disease patients in clinical, biochemical or endoscopic remission were included after anti-TNF cessation. Primary outcome was a relapse necessitating treatment. Discrimination and calibration of the previously developed model were assessed. After external validation, the model was updated. The performance of the updated prediction model was assessed in internal-external validation and by using decision curve analysis. RESULTS : 486 patients were included with a median follow-up of 1.7 years. Relapse rates were 35 and 54% after 1 and 2 years. At external validation, the discriminative ability of the prediction model was equal to that found at the development of the model [c-statistic 0.58 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.54-0.62)], though the model was not well-calibrated on our cohort [calibration slope: 0.52 (0.28-0.76)]. After an update, a c-statistic of 0.60 (0.58-0.63) and calibration slope of 0.89 (0.69-1.09) were reported in internal-external validation. CONCLUSION : Our previously developed and updated prediction model for the risk of relapse after cessation of anti-TNF in Crohn's disease shows reasonable performance. The use of the model may support clinical decision-making to optimize patient selection in whom anti-TNF can be withdrawn. Clinical validation is ongoing in a prospective randomized trial