Statistical adjustment for a measure of healthy lifestyle doesn't yield the truth about hormone therapy

The Women's Health Initiative randomized clinical trial of hormone therapy found no benefit of hormones in preventive cardiovascular disease, a finding in striking contrast with a large body of observational research. Understanding whether better methodology and/or statistical adjustment might have prevented the erroneous conclusions of observational research is important. This is a re-analysis of data from a case-control study examining the relationship of postmenopausal hormone therapy and the risks of myocardial infarction (MI) and ischemic stroke in which we reported no overall increase or decrease in the risk of either event. Variables measuring health behavior/lifestyle that are not likely to be causally with the risks of MI and stroke (e.g., sunscreen use) were included in multivariate analysis along with traditional confounders (age, hypertension, diabetes, smoking, body mass index, ethnicity, education, prior coronary heart disease for MI and prior stroke/TIA for stroke) to determine whether adjustment for the health behavior/lifestyle variables could reproduce or bring the results closer to the findings in a large and definitive randomized clinical trial of hormone therapy, the Women's Health Initiative. For both MI and stroke, measures of health behavior/lifestyle were associated with odds ratios (ORs) less than 1.0. Adjustment for traditional cardiovascular disease confounders did not alter the magnitude of the ORs for MI or stroke. Addition of a subset of these variables selected using stepwise regression to the final MI or stroke models along with the traditional cardiovascular disease confounders moved the ORs for estrogen and estrogen/progestin use closer to values observed in the Women Health Initiative clinical trial, but did not reliably reproduce the clinical trial results for these two endpoints.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/193940307000000437 the IMS Collections (http://www.imstat.org/publications/imscollections.htm) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Occupation and Environmental Heat-Associated Deaths in Maricopa County, Arizona: A Case-Control Study

Background: Prior research shows that work in agriculture and construction/extraction occupations increases the risk of environmental heat-associated death. Purpose: To assess the risk of environmental heat-associated death by occupation. Methods: This was a case-control study. Cases were heat-caused and heat-related deaths occurring from May-October during the period 2002–2009 in Maricopa County, Arizona. Controls were selected at random from non-heat-associated deaths during the same period in Maricopa County. Information on occupation, age, sex, and race-ethnicity was obtained from death certificates. Logistic regression analysis was used to estimate odds ratios for heat-associated death. Results: There were 444 cases of heat-associated deaths in adults (18+ years) and 925 adult controls. Of heat-associated deaths, 332 (75%) occurred in men; a construction/extraction or agriculture occupation was described on the death certificate in 115 (35%) of these men. In men, the age-adjusted odds ratios for heat-associated death were 2.32 (95% confidence interval 1.55, 3.48) in association with construction/extraction and 3.50 (95% confidence interval 1.94, 6.32) in association with agriculture occupations. The odds ratio for heat-associated death was 10.17 (95% confidence interval 5.38, 19.23) in men with unknown occupation. In women, the age-adjusted odds ratio for heat-associated death was 6.32 (95% confidence interval 1.48, 27.08) in association with unknown occupation. Men age 65 years and older in agriculture occupations were at especially high risk of heat-associated death. Conclusion: The occurrence of environmental heat-associated death in men in agriculture and construction/extraction occupations in a setting with predictable periods of high summer temperatures presents opportunities for prevention

Validation of multi-stage telephone-based identification of cognitive impairment and dementia

BACKGROUND: Many types of research on dementia and cognitive impairment require large sample sizes. Detailed in-person assessment using batteries of neuropyschologic testing is expensive. This study evaluates whether a brief telephone cognitive assessment strategy can reliably classify cognitive status when compared to an in-person "gold-standard" clinical assessment. METHODS: The gold standard assessment of cognitive status was conducted at the University of Southern California Alzheimer Disease Research Center (USC ADRC). It involved an examination of patients with a memory complaint by a neurologist or psychiatrist specializing in cognitive disorders and administration of a battery of neuropsychologic tests. The method being evaluated was a multi-staged assessment using the Telephone Interview of Cognitive Status-modified (TICSm) with patients and the Telephone Dementia Questionnaire (TDQ) with a proxy. Elderly male and female patients who had received the gold standard in-person assessment were asked to also undergo the telephone assessment. The unweighted kappa statistic was calculated to compare the gold standard and the multistage telephone assessment methods. Sensitivity for classification with dementia and specificity for classification as normal were also calculated. RESULTS: Of 50 patients who underwent the gold standard assessment and were referred for telephone assessment, 38 (76%) completed the TICS. The mean age was 78.1 years and 26 (68%) were female. When comparing the gold standard assessment and the telephone method for classifying subjects as having dementia or no dementia, the sensitivity of the telephone method was 0.83 (95% confidence interval 0.36, 1.00), the specificity was 1.00 (95% confidence interval 0.89,1.00). Kappa was 0.89 (95% confidence interval 0.69, 1.000). Considering a gold-standard assessment of age-associated memory impairment as cognitive impairment, the sensitivity of the telephone approach is 0.38 (95% confidence interval 0.09, 0.76) specificity 0.96 (CI 0.45, 0.89) and kappa 0.61 (CI 0.37, 0.85). CONCLUSION: Use of a telephone interview to identify people with dementia or cognitive impairment is a promising and relatively inexpensive strategy for identifying potential participants in intervention and clinical research studies and for classifying subjects in epidemiologic studies

Multiple Trigger Points for Quantifying Heat-Health Impacts: New Evidence from a Hot Climate

Background: Extreme heat is a public health challenge. The scarcity of directly comparable studies on the association of heat with morbidity and mortality and the inconsistent identification of threshold temperatures for severe impacts hampers the development of comprehensive strategies aimed at reducing adverse heat-health events. Objectives: This quantitative study was designed to link temperature with mortality and morbidity events in Maricopa County, Arizona, USA with a focus on the summer season. Methods: Using Poisson regression models that controlled for temporal confounders, we assessed daily temperature-health associations for a suite of mortality and morbidity events, diagnoses, and temperature metrics. Minimum risk temperatures, increasing risk temperatures, and excess risk temperatures were statistically identified to represent different “trigger points” at which heat-health intervention measures might be activated. Results: We found significant and consistent associations of high environmental temperature with all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, heat-related mortality, and mortality resulting from conditions that are consequences of heat and dehydration. Hospitalizations and emergency department visits due to heat-related conditions and conditions associated with consequences of heat and dehydration were also strongly associated with high temperatures and there were several times more of those events than deaths. For each temperature metric, we observed large contrasts in trigger points (up to 22°C) across multiple health events and diagnoses. Conclusion: Consideration of multiple health events and diagnoses together with a comprehensive approach to identify threshold temperatures revealed large differences in trigger points for possible interventions related to heat. Providing an array of heat trigger points applicable for different end-users may improve public health response to a problem projected to worsen in the coming decades

Heat-Related Deaths in Hot Cities: Estimates of Human Tolerance to High Temperature Thresholds

In this study we characterized the relationship between temperature and mortality in central Arizona desert cities that have an extremely hot climate. Relationships between daily maximum apparent temperature (ATmax) and mortality for eight condition-specific causes and all-cause deaths were modeled for all residents and separately for males and females ages \u3c65 and ≥65 during the months May–October for years 2000–2008. The most robust relationship was between ATmax on day of death and mortality from direct exposure to high environmental heat. For this condition-specific cause of death, the heat thresholds in all gender and age groups (ATmax = 90–97 °F; 32.2‒ 36.1 °C) were below local median seasonal temperatures in the study period (ATmax = 99.5 °F; 37.5 °C). Heat threshold was defined as ATmax at which the mortality ratio begins an exponential upward trend. Thresholds were identified in younger and older females for cardiac disease/stroke mortality (ATmax = 106 and 108 °F; 41.1 and 42.2 °C) with a one-day lag. Thresholds were also identified for mortality from respiratory diseases in older people (ATmax = 109 °F; 42.8 °C) and for all-cause mortality in females (ATmax = 107 °F; 41.7 °C) and males \u3c65 years (ATmax = 102 °F; 38.9 °C). Heat-related mortality in a region that has already made some adaptations to predictable periods of extremely high temperatures suggests that more extensive and targeted heat-adaptation plans for climate change are needed in cities worldwide

Surgical margins and survival after head and neck cancer surgery

BACKGROUND: Mixed results exist as to whether positive surgical margins impact survival. The aim of this study was to determine whether positive surgical margins are indeed associated with decreased survival in patients with primary head and neck cancer. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 261 cases diagnosed with cancer of the larynx or tongue between 1995 and 1999. Cases were followed through December 31, 2002. Survival curves by margin status were generated by Kaplan-Meier methods. Categorical data were evaluated with odds ratios (OR). RESULTS: All-cause mortality was markedly higher in cases with positive margins as compared with those with negative margins (54% versus 29%, P = 0.005). This pattern also appeared after adjusting for age and sex (OR = 2.97, 95% CI: 1.29 – 6.84). CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that positive surgical margin status is associated with increased mortality. This association also generally persists after adjustment for tumor size, stage, and adjuvant therapy

New genetic loci implicated in fasting glucose homeostasis and their impact on type 2 diabetes risk.

Levels of circulating glucose are tightly regulated. To identify new loci influencing glycemic traits, we performed meta-analyses of 21 genome-wide association studies informative for fasting glucose, fasting insulin and indices of beta-cell function (HOMA-B) and insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) in up to 46,186 nondiabetic participants. Follow-up of 25 loci in up to 76,558 additional subjects identified 16 loci associated with fasting glucose and HOMA-B and two loci associated with fasting insulin and HOMA-IR. These include nine loci newly associated with fasting glucose (in or near ADCY5, MADD, ADRA2A, CRY2, FADS1, GLIS3, SLC2A2, PROX1 and C2CD4B) and one influencing fasting insulin and HOMA-IR (near IGF1). We also demonstrated association of ADCY5, PROX1, GCK, GCKR and DGKB-TMEM195 with type 2 diabetes. Within these loci, likely biological candidate genes influence signal transduction, cell proliferation, development, glucose-sensing and circadian regulation. Our results demonstrate that genetic studies of glycemic traits can identify type 2 diabetes risk loci, as well as loci containing gene variants that are associated with a modest elevation in glucose levels but are not associated with overt diabetes

Screening for Gonorrhea: Recommendation Statement

The U.S. Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recommends that clinicians screen all sexually active women, including those who are pregnant, for gonorrhea infection if they are at increased risk for infection (that is, if they are young or have other individual or population risk factors; see Clinical Considerations for further discussion of risk factors). B recommendation

Migraine in women: the role of hormones and their impact on vascular diseases

Migraine is a predominantly female disorder. Menarche, menstruation, pregnancy, and menopause, and also the use of hormonal contraceptives and hormone replacement treatment may influence migraine occurrence. Migraine usually starts after menarche, occurs more frequently in the days just before or during menstruation, and ameliorates during pregnancy and menopause. Those variations are mediated by fluctuation of estrogen levels through their influence on cellular excitability or cerebral vasculature. Moreover, administration of exogenous hormones may cause worsening of migraine as may expose migrainous women to an increased risk of vascular disease. In fact, migraine with aura represents a risk factor for stroke, cardiac disease, and vascular mortality. Studies have shown that administration of combined oral contraceptives to migraineurs may further increase the risk for ischemic stroke. Consequently, in women suffering from migraine with aura caution should be deserved when prescribing combined oral contraceptives