Predictive Modeling Using Shape Statistics for Interpretable and Robust Quality Assurance of Automated Contours in Radiation Treatment Planning

Deep learning methods for image segmentation and contouring are gaining prominence as an automated approach for delineating anatomical structures in medical images during radiation treatment planning. These contours are used to guide radiotherapy treatment planning, so it is important that contouring errors are flagged before they are used for planning. This creates a need for effective quality assurance methods to enable the clinical use of automated contours in radiotherapy. We propose a novel method for contour quality assurance that requires only shape features, making it independent of the platform used to obtain the images. Our method uses a random forest classifier to identify low-quality contours. On a dataset of 312 kidney contours, our method achieved a cross-validated area under the curve of 0.937 in identifying unacceptable contours. We applied our method to an unlabeled validation dataset of 36 kidney contours. We flagged 6 contours which were then reviewed by a cervix contour specialist, who found that 4 of the 6 contours contained errors. We used Shapley values to characterize the specific shape features that contributed to each contour being flagged, providing a starting point for characterizing the source of the contouring error. These promising results suggest our method is feasible for quality assurance of automated radiotherapy contours

survivalContour: Visualizing Predicted Survival via Colored Contour Plots

Advances in survival analysis have facilitated unprecedented flexibility in data modeling, yet there remains a lack of tools for illustrating the influence of continuous covariates on predicted survival outcomes. We propose the utilization of a colored contour plot to depict the predicted survival probabilities over time. Our approach is capable of supporting conventional models, including the Cox and Fine–Gray models. However, its capability shines when coupled with cutting-edge machine learning models such as random survival forests and deep neural networks. Availability and implementation We provide a Shiny app at https://biostatistics.mdanderson.org/shinyapps/survivalContour/ and an R package available at https://github.com/YushuShi/survivalContour as implementations of this tool

survivalContour: Visualizing predicted survival via colored contour plots

Advances in survival analysis have facilitated unprecedented flexibility in data modeling, yet there remains a lack of tools for graphically illustrating the influence of continuous covariates on predicted survival outcomes. We propose the utilization of a colored contour plot to depict the predicted survival probabilities over time, and provide a Shiny app and R package as implementations of this tool. Our approach is capable of supporting conventional models, including the Cox and Fine-Gray models. However, its capability shines when coupled with cutting-edge machine learning models such as random survival forests and deep neural networks

Bayesian Varying-Effects Vector Autoregressive Models for Inference of Brain Connectivity Networks and Covariate Effects in Pediatric Traumatic Brain Injury

In this article, we develop an analytical approach for estimating brain connectivity networks that accounts for subject heterogeneity. More specifically, we consider a novel extension of a multi-subject Bayesian vector autoregressive model that estimates group-specific directed brain connectivity networks and accounts for the effects of covariates on the network edges. We adopt a flexible approach, allowing for (possibly) nonlinear effects of the covariates on edge strength via a novel Bayesian nonparametric prior that employs a weighted mixture of Gaussian processes. For posterior inference, we achieve computational scalability by implementing a variational Bayes scheme. Our approach enables simultaneous estimation of group-specific networks and selection of relevant covariate effects. We show improved performance over competing two-stage approaches on simulated data. We apply our method on resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging data from children with a history of traumatic brain injury (TBI) and healthy controls to estimate the effects of age and sex on the group-level connectivities. Our results highlight differences in the distribution of parent nodes. They also suggest alteration in the relation of age, with peak edge strength in children with TBI, and differences in effective connectivity strength between males and females

Bayesian Modeling of Multiple Structural Connectivity Networks During the Progression of Alzheimer's Disease

Alzheimer's disease is the most common neurodegenerative disease. The aim of this study is to infer structural changes in brain connectivity resulting from disease progression using cortical thickness measurements from a cohort of participants who were either healthy control, or with mild cognitive impairment, or Alzheimer's disease patients. For this purpose, we develop a novel approach for inference of multiple networks with related edge values across groups. Specifically, we infer a Gaussian graphical model for each group within a joint framework, where we rely on Bayesian hierarchical priors to link the precision matrix entries across groups. Our proposal differs from existing approaches in that it flexibly learns which groups have the most similar edge values, and accounts for the strength of connection (rather than only edge presence or absence) when sharing information across groups. Our results identify key alterations in structural connectivity which may reflect disruptions to the healthy brain, such as decreased connectivity within the occipital lobe with increasing disease severity. We also illustrate the proposed method through simulations, where we demonstrate its performance in structure learning and precision matrix estimation with respect to alternative approaches.Comment: Accepted to Biometrics January 202