Trading with Bandits

Abstract Is it possible to trade with bandits? When government is absent, the superior strength of some agents makes it cheaper for them to violently steal what they desire from weaker agents than to use trade to obtain what they want. Such was the case with middlemen who interacted with producers in late precolonial west central Africa. In the face of this threat, producers employed two mechanisms to make exchange with middlemen possible. On the one hand, they used credit to alter middlemen’s cost‐benefit structure of engaging in plunder versus trade. On the other hand, producers demanded tribute from traveling traders as a risk premium. By transforming traveling traders’ incentive from banditry to peaceful trade and reducing producers’ costs associated with interacting with middlemen, these mechanisms enhanced both parties’ ability to capture the gains from exchange

How important is state enforcement for trade?

Abstract This paper investigates the effect of state contract enforcement on international trade. Following Rose (2004a), I estimate a gravity model of bilateral trade using panel data that covers 157 countries over the last 50 years. I find that state enforcement increases trade between nations-but less impressively than its status as essential for flourishing trade suggests. My analysis provides the first direct evidence of state enforcement's impact on trade in general and international trade in particular. (JEL Codes: K33, F10

Two-Tiered Entrepreneurship and Economic Development

Abstract This paper argues that there are two tiers of entrepreneurship important for economic development. One is concerned with investments in productive technologies that improve productivity and better service consumer needs. The other is concerned with the creation of protective technologies that secure citizens' private property rights vis-à-vis one another. In the developing world where governments cannot or do not protect citizens against predation, "institutional entrepreneurs" devise private mechanisms of property protection, providing the security required for productive entrepreneurship to grow. However, private protection technologies can be a double-edged sword. While private protection technologies enable some investment and exchange by securing citizens' property where government does not, potential constraints on these technologies' effectiveness may simultaneously limit their ability to expand investment and exchange beyond modest levels

Large emergency-response exercises: qualitative characteristics - a survey

Exercises, drills, or simulations are widely used, by governments, agencies and commercial organizations, to simulate serious incidents and train staff how to respond to them. International cooperation has led to increasingly large-scale exercises, often involving hundreds or even thousands of participants in many locations. The difference between ‘large’ and ‘small’ exercises is more than one of size: (a) Large exercises are more ‘experiential’ and more likely to undermine any model of reality that single organizations may create; (b) they create a ‘play space’ in which organizations and individuals act out their own needs and identifications, and a ritual with strong social implications; (c) group-analytic psychotherapy suggests that the emotions aroused in a large group may be stronger and more difficult to control. Feelings are an unacknowledged major factor in the success or failure of exercises; (d) successful large exercises help improve the nature of trust between individuals and the organizations they represent, changing it from a situational trust to a personal trust; (e) it is more difficult to learn from large exercises or to apply the lessons identified; (f) however, large exercises can help develop organizations and individuals. Exercises (and simulation in general) need to be approached from a broader multidisciplinary direction if their full potential is to be realized

Nonequilibrium spectral diffusion due to laser heating in stimulated photon echo spectroscopy of low temperature glasses

A quantitative theory is developed, which accounts for heating artifacts in three-pulse photon echo (3PE) experiments. The heat diffusion equation is solved and the average value of the temperature in the focal volume of the laser is determined as a function of the 3PE waiting time. This temperature is used in the framework of nonequilibrium spectral diffusion theory to calculate the effective homogeneous linewidth of an ensemble of probe molecules embedded in an amorphous host. The theory fits recently observed plateaus and bumps without introducing a gap in the distribution function of flip rates of the two-level systems or any other major modification of the standard tunneling model.Comment: 10 pages, Revtex, 6 eps-figures, accepted for publication in Phys. Rev.

Amisulpride augmentation in clozapine-unresponsive schizophrenia: A double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomised trial of clinical and cost-effectiveness.

BACKGROUND: When treatment-refractory schizophrenia shows an insufficient response to a trial of clozapine, clinicians commonly add a second antipsychotic, despite the lack of robust evidence to justify this practice. OBJECTIVES: The main objectives of the study were to establish the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of augmentation of clozapine medication with a second antipsychotic, amisulpride, for the management of treatment-resistant schizophrenia. DESIGN: The study was a multicentre, double-blind, individually randomised, placebo-controlled trial with follow-up at 12 weeks. SETTINGS: The study was set in NHS multidisciplinary teams in adult psychiatry. PARTICIPANTS: Eligible participants were people aged 18-65 years with treatment-resistant schizophrenia unresponsive, at a criterion level of persistent symptom severity and impaired social function, to an adequate trial of clozapine monotherapy. INTERVENTIONS: Interventions comprised clozapine augmentation over 12 weeks with amisulpride or placebo. Participants received 400 mg of amisulpride or two matching placebo capsules for the first 4 weeks, after which there was a clinical option to titrate the dosage of amisulpride up to 800 mg or four matching placebo capsules for the remaining 8 weeks. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome measure was the proportion of 'responders', using a criterion response threshold of a 20% reduction in total score on the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale. RESULTS: A total of 68 participants were randomised. Compared with the participants assigned to placebo, those receiving amisulpride had a greater chance of being a responder by the 12-week follow-up (odds ratio 1.17, 95% confidence interval 0.40 to 3.42) and a greater improvement in negative symptoms, although neither finding had been present at 6-week follow-up and neither was statistically significant. Amisulpride was associated with a greater side effect burden, including cardiac side effects. Economic analyses indicated that amisulpride augmentation has the potential to be cost-effective in the short term [net saving of between £329 and £2011; no difference in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs)] and possibly in the longer term. LIMITATIONS: The trial under-recruited and, therefore, the power of statistical analysis to detect significant differences between the active and placebo groups was limited. The economic analyses indicated high uncertainty because of the short duration and relatively small number of participants. CONCLUSIONS: The risk-benefit of amisulpride augmentation of clozapine for schizophrenia that has shown an insufficient response to a trial of clozapine monotherapy is worthy of further investigation in larger studies. The size and extent of the side effect burden identified for the amisulpride-clozapine combination may partly reflect the comprehensive assessment of side effects in this study. The design of future trials of such a treatment strategy should take into account that a clinical response may be not be evident within the 4- to 6-week follow-up period usually considered adequate in studies of antipsychotic treatment of acute psychotic episodes. Economic evaluation indicated the need for larger, longer-term studies to address uncertainty about the extent of savings because of amisulpride and impact on QALYs. The extent and nature of the side effect burden identified for the amisulpride-clozapine combination has implications for the nature and frequency of safety and tolerability monitoring of clozapine augmentation with a second antipsychotic in both clinical and research settings. TRIAL REGISTRATION: EudraCT number 2010-018963-40 and Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN68824876. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 21, No. 49. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information

Dissociable effects of 5-HT2C receptor antagonism and genetic inactivation on perseverance and learned non-reward in an egocentric spatial reversal task

Cognitive flexibility can be assessed in reversal learning tests, which are sensitive to modulation of 5-HT2C receptor (5-HT2CR) function. Successful performance in these tests depends on at least two dissociable cognitive mechanisms which may separately dissipate associations of previous positive and negative valence. The first is opposed by perseverance and the second by learned non-reward. The current experiments explored the effect of reducing function of the 5-HT2CR on the cognitive mechanisms underlying egocentric reversal learning in the mouse. Experiment 1 used the 5-HT2CR antagonist SB242084 (0.5 mg/kg) in a between-groups serial design and Experiment 2 used 5-HT2CR KO mice in a repeated measures design. Animals initially learned to discriminate between two egocentric turning directions, only one of which was food rewarded (denoted CS+, CS−), in a T- or Y-maze configuration. This was followed by three conditions; (1) Full reversal, where contingencies reversed; (2) Perseverance, where the previous CS+ became CS− and the previous CS− was replaced by a novel CS+; (3) Learned non-reward, where the previous CS− became CS+ and the previous CS+ was replaced by a novel CS-. SB242084 reduced perseverance, observed as a decrease in trials and incorrect responses to criterion, but increased learned non-reward, observed as an increase in trials to criterion. In contrast, 5-HT2CR KO mice showed increased perseverance. 5-HT2CR KO mice also showed retarded egocentric discrimination learning. Neither manipulation of 5-HT2CR function affected performance in the full reversal test. These results are unlikely to be accounted for by increased novelty attraction, as SB242084 failed to affect performance in an unrewarded novelty task. In conclusion, acute 5-HT2CR antagonism and constitutive loss of the 5-HT2CR have opposing effects on perseverance in egocentric reversal learning in mice. It is likely that this difference reflects the broader impact of 5HT2CR loss on the development and maintenance of cognitive function