Mean incremental costs (per woman) and health outcomes comparing the new contraceptive program to the current contraceptive program in Uganda^*.

<p>LYs – Life Years; ICER – Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratio.</p><p>*The NCP results in lower costs and improved outcomes i.e. dominates the CCP in the incremental analysis.</p

Number and percentage of fecund married or unmarried, sexually active women in Uganda who desire contraception and the different kinds of contraceptive methods under the CCP and NCP^*.

<p>CCP – Current Contraceptive Program; NCP – New Contraceptive Program.</p><p>*Assumes identical distribution of modern methods as is currently used.</p

Tornado diagrams of univariate sensitivity analysis from the societal perspective.

<p>The diagram shows, for a comparison between the new contraceptive program and the current contraceptive program, the impact of uncertainty surrounding different variables on incremental cost (a) and incremental disability-adjusted life years (b). The most influential variables are shown.</p

Parameters of the Markov model.

<p>*Sensitivity ranges are based on 95% confidence intervals where available or represent +/−50% for costs and +/−20% for other parameters.</p>φ<p>Also probability of live birth. Calculated by subtracting ectopic pregancies, induced abortions, miscarriages and still births.</p>ψ<p>Maternal mortality.</p

Results of a cost-consequences analysis for a hypothetical cohort of 100,000 Ugandan women.

<p>CCP – Current Contraceptive Program; NCP – New Contraceptive Program; MoH – Ministry of Health; DALE – Disability-Adjusted Life Expectancy.</p

Incremental cost-effectiveness scatter plot obtained from probabilistic sensitivity analysis.

<p>The figure shows the distribution of cost-effectiveness pairs on the cost-effectiveness plane.</p

Results of the baseline analysis showing the mean costs (per woman), incremental costs, DALE, incremental DALE and ICERs comparing NCP to the CCP.

<p>DALE – Disability-Adjusted Life Expectancy; DALY – Disability-Adjusted Life-Year; MoH – Ministry of Health; CCP – Current Contraceptive Program; NCP – New Contraceptive Program.</p><p>*Program costs minus averted medical costs.</p

Age-specific transition probabilities from different states of contraceptive use, pregnancy and death.

<p>NSA – Not Sexually Active; INU – Intentional Non-Use of contraception; UNU – Unintentional Non-Use of contraception; MOD – Modern contraception; TRA – Traditional Contraception; PRE – Pregnant.</p><p>*Initial estimate of 85% probability of pregnancy is adjusted for proportion of women who are menopausal by age.</p>ψ<p>Gender and age-specific mortality rate for Uganda converted to a nine-month transitional probability.</p

Markov model.

<p>The model illustrates the different states of contraception through which women between 15 and 49 years of age in Uganda transition. Each state is associated with a cost and a value of disability-adjusted life years lost. All states may progress to dead.</p

Cost-effectiveness acceptability curves obtained from probabilistic sensitivity analysis.

<p>The curves show, for 10,000 simulated samples, the probability that the new contraceptive program is cost-effective compared to the current contraceptive program at varying thresholds of cost-effectiveness (willingness to pay to avert an additional disability-adjusted life year).</p