Under-five death rate among internally displaced persons in Duhok governorate, Iraq, September/October 2014.

<p>*The Bayesian estimate is based on a conjugate beta-binomial model. The “high mortality” prior has a mean of 0.64, and the 0.05 percentile is 0.27 (this means we assume there is still a 5% chance that mortality levels are at or even below baseline levels).</p><p>**The Bayesian “confidence interval” is the HDI of the posterior distribution.</p><p>Under-five death rate among internally displaced persons in Duhok governorate, Iraq, September/October 2014.</p

Under-five death rate in Yida refugee camp, June/July 2012.

<p>* The Bayesian estimate is based on a conjugate beta-binomial model. The “skeptical” prior has a mean of 1.07 (sub-Saharan mortality baseline reference), and the 0.95 percentile is 2.1 (this means we assume the skeptical audience believes there is a 5% chance that mortality levels exceed the emergency threshold).</p><p>** The Bayesian “confidence interval” is the highest density interval (HDI) of the posterior distribution.</p><p>Under-five death rate in Yida refugee camp, June/July 2012.</p