Expert judgment versus public opinion - evidence from the Eurovision Song Contest

For centuries, there have been discussions as to whether only experts can judge the quality of cultural output, or whether the taste of the public also has merit. This paper tries to resolve that question empirically, using national finals of the Eurovision Song Contest. We show that experts are better judges of quality: the outcome of finals judged by experts is less sensitive to factors unrelated to quality than the outcome of finals judged by public opinion. Yet, experts are not perfect: their judgment does still depend on such factors. This is also the case in the European finals of the contest.

Expert judgment versus public opinion : evidence from the Eurovision Song Contest

For centuries, there have been discussions as to whether only experts can judge the quality of cultural output, or whether the taste of the public also has merit. This paper tries to resolve that question empirically, using national finals of the Eurovision Song Contest. We show that experts are better judges of quality: the outcome of finals judged by experts is less sensitive to factors unrelated to quality than the outcome of finals judged by public opinion. Yet, experts are not perfect: their judgment does still depend on such factors. This is also the case in the European finals of the contest

An efficient tool to calculate two-dimensional optical spectra for photoactive molecular complexes

We combine the coherent modified Redfield theory (CMRT) with the equation of motion-phase matching approach (PMA) to calculate two-dimensional photon echo spectra for photoactive molecular complexes with an intermediate strength of the coupling to their environment. Both techniques are highly efficient, yet they involve approximations at different levels. By explicitly comparing with the numerically exact quasi-adiabatic path integral approach, we show for the Fenna-Matthews-Olson complex that the CMRT describes the decay rates in the population dynamics well, but final stationary populations and the oscillation frequencies differ slightly. In addition, we use the combined CMRT+PMA to calculate two-dimensional photon-echo spectra for a simple dimer model. We find excellent agreement with the exact path integral calculations at short waiting times where the dynamics is still coherent. For long waiting times, differences occur due to different final stationary states, specifically for strong system-bath coupling. For weak to intermediate system-bath couplings, which is most important for natural photosynthetic complexes, the combined CMRT+PMA gives reasonable results with acceptable computational efforts

Synthesis of biodegradable polyesteramides with pendant functional groups

Morpholine-2,5-dione derivatives having substituents with benzyl-protected carboxylic acid, benzyloxycarbonyl-protected amine and p-methoxy-protected thiol groups, respectively, were prepared in 29-58% yield by cyclization of the corresponding N-[(2RS)-bromopropionyl]-L-amino acids. Polyesteramides with protected pendant functional groups were obtained by ring-opening copolymerization of either ε-caprolactone or DL-lactide with morpholine-2,5-dione derivatives having protected functional substituents. The copolymerizations were carried out in the bulk at 130°C using stannous octoate as an initiator and using low mole fractions (0,05, 0,10 and 0,20) of morpholine-2,5-dione derivatives in the feed. The molecular weight of the resulting copolymers ranged from 1,4 to 8,3 · 104. The ring-opening homopolymerization of morpho-line-2,5-dione derivatives with protected functional substituents was not successful. Polyesteramides with either pendant carboxylic acid groups or pendant amine groups were prepared by catalytic hydrogenation of the corresponding protected copolymers. Treatment of copolymers having pendant p-methoxybenzyl-protected thiol groups with trifluoromethanesulfonic acid resulted not only in the removal of the p-methoxybenzyl group but also in severe degradation of the copolymers, due to acidolysis of main-chain ester bonds

Measuring the impact of observations on the predictability of the Kuroshio Extension in a shallow-water model

In this paper sequential importance sampling is used to assess the impact of observations on a ensemble prediction for the decadal path transitions of the Kuroshio Extension (KE). This particle filtering approach gives access to the probability density of the state vector, which allows us to determine the predictive power — an entropy based measure — of the ensemble prediction. The proposed set-up makes use of an ensemble that, at each time, samples the climatological probability distribution. Then, in a post-processing step, the impact of different sets of observations is measured by the increase in predictive power of the ensemble over the climatological signal during one-year. The method is applied in an identical-twin experiment for the Kuroshio Extension using a reduced-gravity shallow water model. We investigate the impact of assimilating velocity observations from different locations during the elongated and the contracted meandering state of the KE. Optimal observations location correspond to regions with strong potential vorticity gradients. For the elongated state the optimal location is in the first meander of the KE. During the contracted state of the KE it is located south of Japan, where the Kuroshio separates from the coast