Is the yield curve a useful Information variable for the Eurosystem?

The focus of this paper is on the use of the yield curve in monetary policy making. Theoretical arguments and a multi-country empirical analysis with an explicit focus on the euro area suggest the need for caution in case the Eurosystem uses the yield curve as an information variable for monetary policy, because multiple theoretical explanations exist for an observed movement in the yield curve, suggesting that policy reactions cannot be prescribed unambiguously. In addition, the empirical analysis shows that, in contrast with earlier findings of, for example, Hardouvelis (1994) and Bernard and Gerlach (1996), the information content of the yield curve is fairly limited. For the individual European countries participating in the Eurosystem as well as for the euro area as a whole, the yield spread possesses only very limited information relating to future movements in the inflation rate and output growth, over-and-above the information contained in the history of the latter variables. JEL Classification: E43, E52

A Meta-analysis of Fdi and Productivity Spillovers in Developing Countries

This meta-analysis reviews the intrasector heterogeneity of productivity spillovers from foreign direct investment (FDI) in 31 developing countries through a larger more comprehensive data set. We investigate how the inconsistencies in the reported spillover findings are affected by publication bias, characteristics of the data, estimation techniques, and empirical specification, analyzing 1450 spillover estimates from 69 empirical studies published in 1986-2013. Our findings suggest that reported FDI spillover estimates are affected by publication bias. In combination with model misspecification of the primary studies, the bias overstates the genuine underlying meta-effect, but the meta-effect remains economically and statistically significant. Our results emphasize that spillovers and their sign largely depend systematically on specification characteristics of the primary studies and publication bias. Publication bias is not caused by best practice choices. Future research needs to cover more developing countries and to investigate not only whether spillovers occur, but also to explore inside the black box of how spillovers actually emerge

Publication bias in the price effects of monetary policy: A meta-regression analysis for emerging and developing economies

Using 43 studies conducted between 2001 and 2019, we employ a meta-regression analysis (MRA) to synthesize literature findings on the effects of monetary policy on price levels in 32 emerging and developing countries. We find strong evidence of a negative publication bias for all types of price effects (short-term, medium-term and maximum effects). Primary studies published in academic journals tend to report stronger negative effects. A cluster analysis and a mixed-effect multilevel model confirm the null hypothesis of a genuine price effect. Employing the “best practice” method, we find that the genuine effect is negative. In the other words, increasing policy interest rates appears to be effective in controlling inflation in emerging and developing countries. In comparison with the genuine price effect in advanced countries reported by Rusnak et al. (2013), our study indicates that the genuine price effects in emerging and developing countries are weaker than in advanced countries

Multi-Membership and the Effectiveness of Regional Trade Agreements in Western and Southern Africa: A Comparative Study of ECOWAS and SADC

Using a gravity model for 35 countries and the years 1995-2006 we estimate the impact of regional trade agreements in Africa (in particular ECOWAS and SADC) and compare this to the a benchmark of North South trade integration (Europe’s preferential trade agreement). We find that • ECOWAS and SADC membership significantly increases bilateral trade flows (and by more than for example preferential trade agreements with the EU do), • SADC membership has a stronger impact compared to ECOWAS and • that the impact of multi-membership critically depends on the characteristics of the overlapping RTA. We find a positive impact if an additional membership complements the integration process of the original RTA: overlapping memberships had a significant positive effect on bilateral trade within the ECOWAS bloc but it is insignificant for SADC

Productivity and Internationalization A Micro/Data Approach

An appropriate analysis of the effects of globalization requires a careful analysis of the various ways in which different firms operate in international markets. Micro data at the level of individual firms and employees can enhance our empirical understanding of the relationships between internationalization, firms, jobs and employees. These micro data become increasingly available. This paper provides an introduction to this special issue that illustrates the wide variation, richness and policy relevance of the emerging micro data driven research on the effects of internationalization and productivity. © 2011 The Author(s)

Heterogeneity and Geography of the World Trade Collapses of the 1930s and 2000s

This paper analyses drivers of imports during the major world trade collapses of the Great Depression (1930s; 34 countries) and the Great Recession (2000s; 173 countries). The dependent variable is the peak to trough distance of the volume of imports in the first year and 3-year-period of these episodes, respectively. The paper develops a succinct empirical model that shows a significant impact of the peak to peak distance of GDP, the share of manufacturing goods in total imports and the political system. The 3-year-period distance for the volume of imports is significantly different for the 1930s and 2000s, but this is not the case for the 1st year of the two trade collapses. Importantly, the analysis uncovers significant heterogeneity with respect to regions

Expected Extent and Potential Duration of the World Import Crunch

P>Against the background of a collapse of world trade and predictions in March 2009 by IMF, WTO and World Bank of a relatively quick rebound, this paper analyses how major post 1980 financial crises have impacted on import volumes of individual countries. The article finds that on average imports contracted by 25% during a period of 5 quarters, but argues that this provides a minimum estimate only for the depth and duration of the present world trade collapse