Modelling the impact of improving screening and treatment of chronic hepatitis C virus infection on future hepatocellular carcinoma rates and liver-related mortality.

BACKGROUND: The societal, clinical and economic burden imposed by the complications of chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection - including cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) - is expected to increase over the coming decades. However, new therapies may improve sustained virological response (SVR) rates and shorten treatment duration. This study aimed to estimate the future burden of HCV-related disease in England if current management strategies remain the same and the impact of increasing diagnosis and treatment of HCV as new therapies become available. METHODS: A previously published model was adapted for England using published literature and government reports, and validated through an iterative process of three meetings of HCV experts. The impact of increasing diagnosis and treatment of HCV as new therapies become available was modelled and compared to the base-case scenario of continuing current management strategies. To assess the 'best case' clinical benefit of new therapies, the number of patients treated was increased by a total of 115% by 2018. RESULTS: In the base-case scenario, total viraemic (HCV RNA-positive) cases of HCV in England will decrease from 144,000 in 2013 to 76,300 in 2030. However, due to the slow progression of chronic HCV, the number of individuals with cirrhosis, decompensated cirrhosis and HCC will continue to increase over this period. The model suggests that the 'best case' substantially reduces HCV-related hepatic disease and HCV-related liver mortality by 2020 compared to the base-case scenario. The number of HCV-related HCC cases would decrease 50% by 2020 and the number progressing from infection to decompensated cirrhosis would decline by 65%. Therefore, compared to projections of current practices, increasing treatment numbers by 115% by 2018 would reduce HCV-related mortality by 50% by 2020. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis suggests that with current treatment practices the number of patients developing HCV-related cirrhosis, decompensated cirrhosis and HCC will increase substantially, with HCV-related liver deaths likely to double by 2030. However, increasing diagnosis and treatment rates could optimise the reduction in the burden of disease produced by the new therapies, potentially halving HCV-related liver mortality and HCV-related HCC by 2020

Estimation of Pap-test coverage in an area with an organised screening program: challenges for survey methods

BACKGROUND: The cytological screening programme of Viterbo has completed the second round of invitations to the entire target population (age 25–64). From a public health perspective, it is important to know the Pap-test coverage rate and the use of opportunistic screening. The most commonly used study design is the survey, but the validity of self-reports and the assumptions made about non respondents are often questioned. METHODS: From the target population, 940 women were sampled, and responded to a telephone interview about Pap-test utilisation. The answers were compared with the screening program registry; comparing the dates of Pap-tests reported by both sources. Sensitivity analyses were performed for coverage over a 36-month period, according to various assumptions regarding non respondents. RESULTS: The response rate was 68%. The coverage over 36 months was 86.4% if we assume that non respondents had the same coverage as respondents, 66% if we assume they were not covered at all, and 74.6% if we adjust for screening compliance in the non respondents. The sensitivity and specificity of the question, "have you ever had a Pap test with the screening programme" were 84.5% and 82.2% respectively. The test dates reported in the interview tended to be more recent than those reported in the registry, but 68% were within 12 months of each other. CONCLUSION: Surveys are useful tools to understand the effectiveness of a screening programme and women's self-report was sufficiently reliable in our setting, but the coverage estimates were strongly influenced by the assumptions we made regarding non respondents

Knowledge and health care resource allocation: CME/CPD course guidelines-based efficacy.

BACKGROUND: Most health care systems consider continuing medical education a potential tool to improve quality of care and reduce disease management costs. Its efficacy in general practitioners needs to be further explored. OBJECTIVE: This study assesses the effectiveness of a one-year continuing medical education/continuing professional development course for general practitioners, regarding the improvement in knowledge of ARIA and GINA guidelines and compliance with them in asthma management. METHODS: Sixty general practitioners, covering 68,146 inhabitants, were randomly allocated to continuing medical education/continuing professional development (five residential events +four short distance-learning refresher courses over one year) or no training. Participants completed a questionnaire after each continuing medical education event; key questions were repeated at least twice. The Local Health Unit prescription database was used to verify prescription habits (diagnostic investigations and pharmacological therapy) and hospitalizations over one year before and after training. RESULTS: Fourteen general practitioners (46.7%) reached the cut-off of 50% attendance of the training courses. Knowledge improved significantly after training (p < 0.001, correct answers to key questions +13%). Training resulted in pharmaceutical cost containment (trained general practitioners +0.5% vs. controls +18.8%) and greater attention to diagnosis and monitoring (increase in spirometry +63.4%, p < 0.01). CONCLUSION: This study revealed an encouraging impact of educational events on improvement in general practitioner knowledge of guidelines and daily practice behavioral changes. Long-term studies of large populations are required to assess the effectiveness of education on the behavior of physicians in asthma management, and to establish the best format for educational events

Tuberculosis treatment outcomes in Europe: a systematic review.

In order to facilitate the control of tuberculosis (TB), the World Health Organization (WHO) has defined a standardised short-course chemotherapy and a strategy, directly observed therapy. In 2000, WHO surveillance of TB treatments in Europe recorded a successful outcome rate of 77%. The aim of this report is to estimate treatment outcomes in European countries based on published studies and to identify their determinants. A systematic review was conducted of published reports of TB treatment outcomes in Europe. Meta-analysis, meta-regression and subgrouping were used to pool treatment outcomes and analyse associations with mean age, sex, immigration status and multidrug resistance. Of the 197 articles identified in the search, 26 were eligible for the review; 74.4% of outcomes were successful, 12.3% were unsuccessful and 6.8% of patients died. Heterogeneity was high for all outcomes. National estimates were possible for six countries. Multidrug resistance was inversely associated with successful outcome, which were fewer in populations with >9% multidrug-resistant TB, and in patients aged <44 yrs. Successful tuberculosis treatment outcomes were below the 85% threshold suggested by the World Health Organization. There was an inverse association with levels of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis. The unexplained heterogeneity between the studies for unsuccessful outcomes seems to be due to differing interpretations given to World Health Organization definitions