Resource adjustments, dynamic price responses, and research impacts in US agriculture, 1950-1982

A multioutput model is developed within the dynamic duality of the adjustment cost theory to analyze resource adjustments, dynamic price responses, and research impacts in U.S. agriculture during the post-war period. The model is rich enough to incorporate both the slow adjustment nature of some farm resources and the role of public and private research in U.S. agriculture. The resource adjustments are investigated for automobiles/trucks, tractors, equipment, service structure, land, and labor. Using state-level data from 1950-1982, the results show that these inputs are best characterized as quasi-fixed inputs. The dynamic price responses and research impacts are analyzed for capital, land, labor, intermediate inputs, crop output, and livestock product. Price and research elasticities are classified into short-run or long-run and direct or indirect. The indirect effects are due to the slow adjustments of capital, land, and labor. The long-run elasticities measure the ultimate impacts of price and research changes when the adjustments of these quasi-fixed inputs have been completed. Differential effects of the existing and new technology from agricultural research are also analyzed. The robustness of the results to the specifications about price expectations and error autocorrelations is investigated

DYNAMIC INPUT DEMAND FUNCTIONS AND RESOURCE ADJUSTMENT FOR U.S. AGRICULTURE: STATE EVIDENCE

The paper presents an econometric model of dynamic agricultural input demand functions that includes research based technical change and autoregressive disturbances and fits the model to data for a set of state aggregates pooled over 1950-82. The methodological approach is one of developing a theoretical foundation for a dynamic input demand system and accepting state aggregate behavior as approximated by nonlinear adjustment costs and long-term profit maximization. Although other studies have largely ignored autocorrelation in dynamic input demand systems, the results show shorter adjustment lags with autocorrelation than without autocorrelation. Dynamic input demand own-price elasticities for six input groups are inelastic, and the demand functions poses significant cross-price and research stock effects.

CENTRAL BANK POLICY MIX: KEY CONCEPTS AND INDONESIA’S EXPERIENCE

The global crisis brings about renewed reforms on central bank policy. First, in addition to the traditional mandate of price stability, there are strong supports for additional mandate of the central bank to promote financial system stability. Second, macroprudential policy is needed to address procyclicality and build-up systemic risks in the macro-financial linkages of financial system that in most cases precede and deepen financial crisis. Third, monetary and financial stability are also prone to volatility of capital flows, especially for the emerging countries, and thus there is a need to manage them. The challenge is how to mix the policies of monetary, macroprudential, and capital flows management to meet the renewed mandate of central bank on monetary and financial stability. This paper reviews theoretical underpinnings and provides key concepts to address the issues. We show that central bank policy mix is both conceptually coherent and practically implementable. We provide a concrete recommendation with a reference from Indonesia’s experience since 2010. We also raise a number of challenges from practical point of views, especially relating to decision making process, forecasting model, and communication, for the success of the policy mix

OVERVIEW Kebijakan Moneter dan Aktivitas Ekonomi

Keampuhan kebijakan moneter dalam mempengaruhi aktivitas ekonomi merupakan salah satu isu yang paling lama diperdebatkan dalam ekonomi moneter. Dapatkah uang mempengaruhi output riil, atau akankah ia hanya meningkatkan inflasi? Konsensus dalam literatur empiris menunjukkan bahwa hubungan jangka panjang antara pertumbuhan uang dengan inflasi berkorelasi sempurna, sehingga mendukung pandangan paham monetarist bahwa inflasi selalu dan dimanapun merupakan fenomena moneter.2 Karena itu, kestabilan harga perlu menjadi tujuan yang diutamakan oleh bank sentral karena hal demikian merupakan kontribusi optimal dari kebijakan moneter dalam mendukung pembangunan ekonomi berkelanjuta

Changing Perspectives on Exchange Rates: Theory and Policy Implications

This paper reviews theoretical and empirical perspectives pertaining to the nature and  impacts of exchange rate movements on macroeconomic conditions, and their fundamental ramifications on macroeconomic and monetary policies. In particular, we show that, with increasing speed and scope of financial globalization and cross-border capital flows, the view on exchange rate has been changing from trade flows to financial asset views. Exchange rate movements have been exhibiting greater volatility beyond fundamentals and often deviate from equilibrium, driven by factors such as shifts in risk premia, investor preferences, as well as underlying economic and financial conditions. Policy implications from such a changing perspective on exchange rate have been pervasive. Exchange rate has not been singled out as an instrument for increasing a country’s external sector competitiveness in the modern literature of international finance. Rather, it constitutes an integral part of policy mix for coping with the impossible trinity of macroeconomic objectives in open economy, i.e. for benefiting from greater capital mobility while still maintaining stable exchange rate movements and domestic policy independence. The complete policy responses would include direct measures for stabilizing exchange rate, some forms of capital controls, and the implementation of inflation targeting framework of monetary policy. JEL Classification Numbers: E5, F3, F4 Keywords: Monetary Policy, International Finance, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Financ

Measuring the Time Inconsistency of Monetary Policy in Indonesia

This study measured the time inconsistency of monetary policy in Indonesia using the asymmetric preference parameter in linear exponential loss function of the central bank. Asymmetric central bank preference becomes an important issue since many of the results on the time inconsistency problem under symmetric preferences may no longer hold under asymmetric preferences. Using two sub-samples, i.e. before and after the implementation of central bank independence act, the conditional mean and the conditional variance of the output gap were estimated and then proceed to estimate the reduced form of the model. The results showed the existence of an asymmetric preference parameter before the Bank Indonesia independence act, which indicated the presence of a time inconsistency problem of monetary policy. This finding implies Bank Indonesia put a negative weight instead of positive weight on the output gap prior to its independency. However, after the implementation of central bank independence, the monetary policy of Bank Indonesia has been consistent with symmetric policy preference over price stability and output.   Keywords: Time inconsistency, discretionary, monetary policy, asymmetric central bank preference, output gap, inflation bias. JEL Classification : E52, E5

MENGUKUR TIME INCONSISTENCY KEBIJAKAN MONETER DI INDONESIA

This study measured the time inconsistency of monetary policy in Indonesia using the asymmetric preference parameter in linear exponential loss function of the central bank. Asymmetric central bank preference becomes an important issue since many of the results on the time inconsistency problem under symmetric preferences may no longer hold under asymmetric preferences. Using two sub-samples, i.e. before and after the implementation of central bank independence act, the conditional mean and the conditional variance of the output gap were estimated and then proceed to estimate the reduced form of the model. The results showed the existence of an asymmetric preference parameter before the Bank Indonesia independence act, which indicated the presence of a time inconsistency problem of monetary policy. This finding implies Bank Indonesia put a negative weight instead of positive weight on the output gap prior to its independency. However, after the implementation of central bank independence, the monetary policy of Bank Indonesia has been consistent with symmetric policy preference over price stability and output. Keywords: Time inconsistency, discretionary, monetary policy, asymmetric central bank preference, output gap, inflation bias.JEL Classification : E52, E5