Statistically derived contributions of diverse human influences to twentieth-century temperature changes

The warming of the climate system is unequivocal as evidenced by an increase in global temperatures by 0.8 °C over the past century. However, the attribution of the observed warming to human activities remains less clear, particularly because of the apparent slow-down in warming since the late 1990s. Here we analyse radiative forcing and temperature time series with state-of-the-art statistical methods to address this question without climate model simulations. We show that long-term trends in total radiative forcing and temperatures have largely been determined by atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, and modulated by other radiative factors. We identify a pronounced increase in the growth rates of both temperatures and radiative forcing around 1960, which marks the onset of sustained global warming. Our analyses also reveal a contribution of human interventions to two periods when global warming slowed down. Our statistical analysis suggests that the reduction in the emissions of ozone-depleting substances under the Montreal Protocol, as well as a reduction in methane emissions, contributed to the lower rate of warming since the 1990s. Furthermore, we identify a contribution from the two world wars and the Great Depression to the documented cooling in the mid-twentieth century, through lower carbon dioxide emissions. We conclude that reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are effective in slowing the rate of warming in the short term.F.E. acknowledges financial support from the Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnologia (http://www.conacyt.gob.mx) under grant CONACYT-310026, as well as from PASPA DGAPA of the Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico. (CONACYT-310026 - Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnologia; PASPA DGAPA of the Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico

Velocity shear and current driven instability in a collisional F-region

We have studied how the presence of collisions affects the behavior of instabilities triggered by a combination of shears and parallel currents in the ionosphere under a variety of ion to electron temperature ratios. To this goal we have numerically solved a kinetic dispersion relation, using a relaxation model to describe the effects of ion and electron collisions. We have compared our solutions to expressions derived in a fluid limit which applied only to large electron to ion temperature ratios. We have limited our study to threshold conditions for the current density and the shears. We have studied how the threshold varies as a function of the wave-vector angle direction and as a function of frequency. As expected, we have found that for low frequencies and/or elevated ion to electron temperature ratios, the kinetic dispersion relation has to be used to evaluate the threshold conditions. We have also found that ion velocity shears can significantly lower the field-aligned threshold current needed to trigger the instability, especially for wave-vectors close to the perpendicular to the magnetic field. However the current density and shear requirements remain significantly higher than if collisions are neglected. Therefore, for ionospheric F-region applications, the effect of collisions should be included in the calculation of instabilities associated with horizontal shears in the vertical flow. Furthermore, in many situations of interest the kinetic solutions should be used instead of the fluid limit, in spite of the fact that the latter can be shown to produce qualitatively valid solutions

Molecular Evolution in Time Dependent Environments

The quasispecies theory is studied for dynamic replication landscapes. A meaningful asymptotic quasispecies is defined for periodic time dependencies. The quasispecies' composition is constantly changing over the oscillation period. The error threshold moves towards the position of the time averaged landscape for high oscillation frequencies and follows the landscape closely for low oscillation frequencies.Comment: 5 pages, 3 figures, Latex, uses Springer documentclass llncs.cl

Kinematic Characterisation of Hexapods for Industry

International audiencePurpose-The aim of this paper is to propose two simple tools for the kinematic characterization of hexapods. The paper also aims to share the authors' experience with converting a popular commercial motion base (Stewart-Gough platform, hex-apod) to an industrial robot for use in heavy duty aerospace manufacturing processes. Design/methodology/approach-The complete workspace of a hexapod is a six-dimensional entity that is impossible to visualize. Thus, nearly all hexapod manufacturers simply state the extrema of each of the six dimensions, which is very misleading. As a compromise, we propose a special three-dimensional subset of the complete workspace, an approximation of which can be readily obtained using a CAD/CAM software suite, such as CATIA. While calibration techniques for serial robots are readily available, there is still no generally-agreed procedure for calibrating hexapods. We propose a simple calibration method that relies on the use of a laser tracker and requires no programming at all. Instead, the design parameters of the hexapod are directly and individually measured and the few computations involved are performed in a CAD/CAM software such as CATIA. Findings-The conventional octahedral hexapod design has a very limited workspace, though free of singularities. There are important deviations between the actual and the specified kinematic model in a commercial motion base. Practical implications-A commercial motion base can be used as a precision positioning device with its controller retrofit-ted with state-of-the-art motion control technology with accurate workspace and geometric characteristics. Originality/value-A novel geometric approach for obtaining meaningful measures of the workspace is proposed. A novel, systematic procedure for the calibration of a hexapod is outlined. Finally, experimental results are presented and discussed

Generalized nonuniform dichotomies and local stable manifolds

We establish the existence of local stable manifolds for semiflows generated by nonlinear perturbations of nonautonomous ordinary linear differential equations in Banach spaces, assuming the existence of a general type of nonuniform dichotomy for the evolution operator that contains the nonuniform exponential and polynomial dichotomies as a very particular case. The family of dichotomies considered allow situations for which the classical Lyapunov exponents are zero. Additionally, we give new examples of application of our stable manifold theorem and study the behavior of the dynamics under perturbations.Comment: 18 pages. New version with minor corrections and an additional theorem and an additional exampl

Wavelength selection and symmetry breaking in orbital wave ripples

Sand ripples formed by waves have a uniform wavelength while at equilibrium and develop defects while adjusting to changes in the flow. These patterns arise from the interaction of the flow with the bed topography, but the specific mechanisms have not been fully explained. We use numerical flow models and laboratory wave tank experiments to explore the origins of these patterns. The wavelength of “orbital” wave ripples (λ) is directly proportional to the oscillating flow's orbital diameter (d), with many experimental and field studies finding λ/d ≈ 0.65. We demonstrate a coupling that selects this ratio: the maximum length of the flow separation zone downstream of a ripple crest equals λ when λ/d ≈ 0.65. We show that this condition maximizes the growth rate of ripples. Ripples adjusting to changed flow conditions develop defects that break the bed's symmetry. When d is shortened sufficiently, two new incipient crests appear in every trough, but only one grows into a full-sized crest. Experiments have shown that the same side (right or left) wins in every trough. We find that this occurs because incipient secondary crests slow the flow and encourage the growth of crests on the next flank. Experiments have also shown that when d is lengthened, ripple crests become increasingly sinuous and eventually break up. We find that this occurs because crests migrate preferentially toward the nearest adjacent crest, amplifying any initial sinuosity. Our results reveal the mechanisms that form common wave ripple patterns and highlight interactions among unsteady flows, sediment transport, and bed topography.National Science Foundation (U.S.) (Award EAR-1225865)National Science Foundation (U.S.) (Award EAR-1225879