Long-Term Economic Hardship and Non-Mainstream Voting in Canada

Canadian voting behaviour from 1979 to 2000 is examined by relating long-term economic changes to support for “non-mainstream” parties, defined as parties other than the Liberals or Progressive Conservatives. This long-term perspective is unique, in that standard economic voting research focuses mostly on how short-term economic changes affect support levels for the incumbent. In order to illustrate the effects of long-term economic decline, federal voting results are related with short- and long-term economic data, namely unemployment and labour-force participation rates, all aggregated at the provincial level. The pooled data produces results that confirm the relevance of short-term changes to explain support for the incumbent party, while support for non-mainstream parties is, instead, explained by long-term economic changes

Facteurs d’appui à la souveraineté du Québec chez les jeunes : Une comparaison entre francophones, anglophones et allophones

Des études récentes ont fait état d’une progression notable de l’option souverainiste chez les Québécois issus de l’immigration, particulièrement parmi les jeunes (« génération 101 »). Ces résultats ont amené certains à conclure que l’intégration linguistique de ces derniers les sensibilisait davantage à l’option souverainiste et que leur comportement électoral était maintenant devenu pratiquement indifférencié de celui des jeunes francophones. Notre étude, basée sur les données d’un sondage mené en 2006, suggère de nuancer ces conclusions. Nos résultats indiquent en effet que, malgré la hausse de l’appui à la souveraineté observée ces dernières années chez les jeunes allophones, les facteurs motivant leur appui ne sont pas tout à fait les mêmes que chez les francophones. Les jeunes allophones semblent notamment très sensibles aux valeurs associées au fédéralisme canadien, de même qu’aux conséquences économiques de la souveraineté. En ce sens, leur comportement s’apparente davantage à celui des jeunes anglophones qu’à celui des jeunes francophones. Le contraste entre francophones et allophones apparaît encore plus marqué lorsque nous examinons l’appui à une question référendaire plus « dure » faisant référence à l’accession du Québec au statut de « pays ».Recent studies have shown a significant increase in sovereignty support among Quebec immigrants, and particularly among immigrants’ children (“Generation 101”). These observations have led some to conclude that, as a result of linguistic integration, immigrant youths’ political opinions and behaviour have become almost undifferentiated from those of their francophone counterparts. Our study, based on a survey conducted in early 2006, provides a significantly more nuanced picture of the situation. Our results indicate that, even though young allophones may have become more supportive of Quebec sovereignty in recent years, the actual motivations behind their support are not entirely the same as those of young francophones. Young allophones appear to be very sensitive to values associated with Canadian federalism, and to the economic consequences of sovereignty. On these accounts, their behaviour more closely resembles that of young anglophones. Such contrast between francophones and allophones becomes even more striking when we examine answers to a more “hardline” referendum question that refers to Quebec assuming the status of a “country.

Revisiting Local Campaign Effects: An Experiment Involving Literature Mail Drops in the 2007 Ontario Election

An invariant feature of constituency election campaigns is the literature mail drop, usually a one-page leaflet or card left at the door profiling the candidate and appealing for electoral support. In this article, we report on a field experiment designed to assess the effects of such mail drops. The experiment was conducted during the 2007 Ontario provincial election campaign in the constituency of Cambridge and entailed distributing literature for the Green party candidate in that constituency. After randomly assigning constituency polls to treatment and control groups, and delivering the Green candidate’s partisan literature only to the selected treatment group polls, we compared the candidate’s support levels in the treated polls with those in the control group. Our research detected a modest effect associated with the literature drop. The effect was largely limited to constituency neighbourhoods fitting at least part of the Green party’s traditional demographic, that is, those with higher than average socio-economic status

The 2007 Provincial Election and Electoral System Referendum in Ontario

Ontario’s general election in Oct. 10, 2007, was unprecedented for several reasons. The election was held on a date fixed by legislation and not one set by the premier or his caucus, something new to Ontario and relatively new to Canadian politics. Turnout declined to 53%, the lowest ever in Ontario history. The incumbent Liberals won a second consecutive majority government, something the party had not achieved since 1937. And finally, the election featured a referendum question that asked voters in Ontario to approve reforms to the electoral system, a proposal that was overwhelmingly rejected. This article explores each of the above-stated elements as they unfolded in the election

Rural, Suburban and Urban Voters: Dissecting Residence Based Voter Cleavages in Provincial Elections

We explore provincial-level cleavages by drawing on surveys administered during eight elections. More specifically, we examine rural-suburban-urban divisions in regards to party support within Canadian provinces. Our results show a clear division according to place of residence, even after controlling for a host of individual-level characteristics. We argue that recognition of this rural-suburban-urban division is an important and often overlooked aspect of understanding Canadian political preferences and political behaviour more generally

How to Win and Lose an Election: Campaign Dynamics of the 2011 Ontario Election

We review the 2011 Ontario general election, which reduced the incumbent Liberal party to a minority government. We place attention on campaign dynamics and issue salience

Triple Play: The Ontario 2014 General Election

The 2014 general election in Ontario was the third straight time when the opposition Progressive Conservative party was poised to win, only to find itself returned to the opposition benches. Part of the the incumbent Liberal party's victory certainly can be attributed to strategic choices of the party, positioning itself closer to where voters wanted them to be. However, there is also a case to be made that the PCs squandered their chance to form government. The following articles walks through some of the key points of the campaign, and the context within which it was held

Effectiveness of Narrative Messaging Styles about the Social Determinants of Health and Health Inequities in Ontario, Canada

Health inequities are systemic, avoidable, and unjust differences in health between populations. These differences are often determined by social and structural factors, such as income and social status, employment and working conditions, or race/racism, which are referred to as the social determinants of health (SDOH). According to public opinion, health is considered to be largely determined by the choices and behaviours of individuals. However, evidence suggests that social and structural factors are the key determinants of health. There is likely a lack of public understanding of the role that social and structural factors play in determining health and producing health inequities. Public opinion and priorities can drive governmental action, so the aim of this work was to determine the most impactful way to increase knowledge and awareness about the social determinants of health (SDOH) and health inequities in the province of Ontario, Canada. A study to test the effectiveness of four different messaging styles about health inequities and the SDOH was conducted with a sample of 805 adult residents of Ontario. Findings show that messages highlighting the challenges faced by those experiencing the negative effects of the SDOH, while still acknowledging individual responsibility for health, were the most effective for eliciting an empathetic response from Ontarians. These findings can be used to inform public awareness campaigns focused on changing the current public narrative about the SDOH toward a more empathetic response, with the goal of increasing political will to enact policies to address health inequities in Ontario