The Topology of Conflict and Co-operation

The class of simultaneous 2x2 pure-strategy ordinal games (which include well-known games such as Prisoner’s Dilemma, Chicken and Stag Hunt) have received considerable attention, including complete classification schemes by amongst others Rapoport & Guyer (1978) and Robinson & Goforth (2005). This paper focuses on a particularly pertinent subset of these games, described as the ‘Co-operate-Defect’ (C-D) games, which are characterised by each player having a dominant preference for a particular strategy by the other player. These games are therefore relevant in a number of contexts, including arms race games and collective action problems. The C-D games may be efficiently classified by assigning each player one of six distinct types, a classification that cannot be naturally extended to the full class of 2x2 games. The six types and the resulting game forms are analysed, and the subclass of CD games are identified within a topological structure for the 2x2 games devised by Robinson & Goforth (2005).Conflict; co-operation; game theory; co-operate-defect games

The demand for military expenditure in developing countries

There is a growing body of literature on the determinants of military spending, mostly either starting from the premise of a dyadic arms race, or a welfare maximisation model incorporating economic, political and strategic variables. This thesis takes the latter approach, to analyse a large sample of developing countries for the period 1981-1997. Two cross-section regressions are estimated, one for the Cold War period, one for the post-Cold War, and a panel data model for the whole period. The results of this analysis suggest that military expenditure is roughly proportional to GNP, depends positively on war and the hostile neighbours' milex, and negatively on population and democracy. There is little evidence that the coefficients differ between the two cross-section regressions, but there is strong evidence of a structural break at the end of the Cold War in the panel data results. There is also evidence of regional differences in the results, which suggests that there may be different regional dynamics in the demand for military spending. To investigate further, the South American continent was chosen, and case studies conducted for Argentina, Brazil and Chile for the period 1970-2000. The main strategic influences on milex are hypothesised to be tension between Argentina and Chile and between Peru, Bolivia and Chile, the Falklands war, and Brazil's ambitions as a great power, while national income, debt and inflation are potential economic influences. Another concern is the differing circumstances of democratic transition in the three countries, especially the level of continuing military influence. This is also hypothesised to affect whether the transition led to reduced military spending. To test these hypotheses, ARDL regressions are run for each country. Argentine milex depends positively on GDP, Chilean milex, and post-Falklands rearmament, and negatively on debt and increasing inflation. Brazilian and Chilean milex seem to be independent of GDP, following an upward trend, but both are negatively affected by debt and inflation. There are no significant external influences on Brazilian milex, but some evidence that tension with Argentina affected Chilean milex. Democracy had no effect in Brazil, a clear negative effect in Chile, and a negative effect in Argentina, but only during the Menem administration. Taken overall, the results of the thesis produce a strong and consistent picture that relates the demand for military spending to overall economic resources and to the level of external and internal threat; however, in countries such as Brazil and Chile with strong continuing military influence, an 'institutionalist' understanding may also be needed, with the military seen as a rent-seeking institution

Basic Needs, Government Debt and Economic Growth

This paper investigates the relationships between basic needs and economic growth where the interactions between output, health, nutrition and education are explicitly simultaneous. We find a unidirectional relationship that improving basic welfare contributes strongly to labour productivity change, but a clear reverse causation only from growth to nutrition. There are substantial differences in the patterns of simultaneous interactions at different income and welfare levels. There are strong self-reinforcing effects of literacy and debt service on poverty, making it difficult for poor countries to rectify their situation. Channelling resources towards improving health, education and nutrition could bring dramatic economic returns.Income, Health, Education, Nutrition, Government debt, Womens’ education

Business as Usual: How major weapons exporters arm the worlds conflicts

This research provides the first global analysis of how conflict in, or involving, a recipient state, impacts exporters' willingness supply arms. It analyses the top eleven global arms suppliers over the ten-year period 2009-2018 Listed in order by the volume of major conventional weapons transfers, these global sales leaders are: the United States, Russia, Germany, France, China, the United Kingdom, Spain, Israel, Italy, the Netherlands, and Ukraine. These countries assert widely varying formal policies regarding arms exports, but the empirical record is, for the most part, remarkably similar

Determining military expenditures: arms races and spill-over effects in cross-section and panel data

This paper considers the determinants of military spending, building on an emerging literature that estimates military expenditure demand functions in cross-section and panel data, incorporating ‘arms-race’ type effects. It updates Dunne and Perlo-Freeman (2003b) using the SIPRI military expenditure database for the period 1988-2003, finding broadly similar results. It also shows differences in results across panel methods, particularly the within and between estimates and illustrates the importance of recognising and modelling dynamic processes within panel data. Heterogeneity is also found to be an important issue and when countries are broken up into groups on the basis of per capita income there is no obvious systematic pattern in the results. This is seen to imply that the demand for military spending, even between two mutually hostile powers, may depend on the whole nature of the relationship between them (and other countries and events in the region), and not simply Richardsonian action-reaction patterns

Military Expenditure and Debt in South America

The debt crisis that struck South American countries in the 1980s led to severe recession, and chronic economic problems. This paper considers one potentially important contributor to the growth of external debt, namely military spending. It considers the experience of Argentina, Brazil and Chile. It finds was no evidence that military burden had any impact on the evolution of debt in Argentina and Brazil, but some evidence that military burden tended to increase debt in Chile. At the same time Chile was the least affected of the three countries by acute financial crises resulting from the debt problems, although their relative levels of debt were as high or higher. This suggests that military burden may be important in determining debt in countries, but it is only of significance when it is not swamped by other macroeconomic and international factors.Military spending; external debt; South America.

Determining Military Expenditures: Arms Races and Spill-Over Effects in Cross-Section and Panel Data

This paper considers the determinants of military spending, building on an emerging literature that estimates military expenditure demand functions in cross-section and panel data, incorporating ‘arms-race’ type effects. It updates Dunne and Perlo-Freeman (2003b) using the SIPRI military expenditure database for the period 1988-2003, finding broadly similar results. It also shows differences in results across panel methods, particularly the within and between estimates and illustrates the importance of recognising and modelling dynamic processes within panel data. Heterogeneity is also found to be an important issue and when countries are broken up into groups on the basis of per capita income there is no obvious systematic pattern in the results. This is seen to imply that the demand for military spending, even between two mutually hostile powers, may depend on the whole nature of the relationship between them (and other countries and events in the region), and not simply Richardsonian action-reaction patterns.Military Spending; Demand; Arms races; Spillovers; Panel data

The Demand for Military Expenditure in Developing Countries: Hostility versus Capability

This paper has considers the interpretation of the empirical results of the developing literature on the demand for military spending that specifies a general model with arms race and spillover effects and estimates it on cross-section and panel data. It questions whether it is meaningful to talk of an ‘arms race’ in panel data or cross-section data, and suggests that it may be more appropriate to talk about the relevant variables – aggregate military spending of the ‘Security Web’ (i.e. all neighbours and other security-influencing powers) and the aggregate military spending of ‘Potential Enemies’– as acting as proxies for threat perceptions, which will reflect both hostility and capability.Military Spending, Developing Countries, Demand.

Determining Military Expenditures: Arms Races and Spill-Over Effects in Cross-Section and Panel Data

This paper considers the determinants of military spending, building on an emerging literature that estimates military expenditure demand functions in cross-section and panel data, incorporating ‘arms-race’ type effects. It updates Dunne and Perlo-Freeman (2003b) using the SIPRI military expenditure database for the period 1988-2003, finding broadly similar results. It also shows differences in results across panel methods, particularly the within and between estimates and illustrates the importance of recognising and modelling dynamic processes within panel data. Heterogeneity is also found to be an important issue and when countries are broken up into groups on the basis of per capita income there is no obvious systematic pattern in the results. This is seen to imply that the demand for military spending, even between two mutually hostile powers, may depend on the whole nature of the relationship between them (and other countries and events in the region), and not simply Richardsonian action-reaction patterns.Military Spending; Demand; Arms races; Spillovers; Panel data