Expected inflation and inflation risk premium in the euro area and in the United States

This paper uses the celebrated no-arbitrage affine Gaussian term structure model applied to index-linked and standard government bonds to derive expected inflation rates and inflation risk premia, in the euro area and in the US. Maximum likelihood estimates show that the model describes the evolution of the nominal and real term structures by using three latent factors which can be interpreted as two real factors and one inflation factor. These provide important information on expected inflation and inflation risk premia. The results highlight some striking differences between the euro area and the US. In the US, forward inflation risk premia become sizable around the start of the late-2000s financial crisis and considerably increase just before the adoption of the first unconventional monetary policy measures in March 2009. By contrast, in the euro area forward inflation risk premia remain unchanged even after the adoption of the unconventional monetary policy measures following the most acute phases of the financial crisis, in October 2008 and in May 2010. However, long-term inflation expectations have been well anchored over the past years.real and nominal term structure, inflation risk premium, affine term structure, Kalman filter

A Primer on Financial Contagion

This paper presents a unified framework to highlight possible channels for the international transmission of financial shocks. We first review the different definitions and measures of contagion used in the literature. We then use a simple multi-country asset pricing model to cast the main elements of the current debate on contagion and provide a stylized account of how a crisis in one country can spread to the world economy. In particular, the model shows how crises can be transmitted across countries, without assuming market imperfections or DG KRF portfolio management rules. Finally, tracking our classification, we survey the results obtained in the empirical literature on contagion.contagion, financial crisis, contagion

A specification analysis of discrete-time no-arbitrage term structure models with observable and unobservable factors

We derive a canonical representation for the no-arbitrage discrete-time term structure models with both observable and unobservable state variables, popularized by Ang and Piazzesi (2003). We conduct a specification analysis based on this canonical representation. We show that some of the restrictions commonly imposed in the literature, most notably that of independence between observable and unobservable variables, are not necessary for identification and are rejected by formal statistical tests. Furthermore, we show that there are important differences between the estimated risk premia, impulse response functions and variance decomposition of unrestricted models, parametrized according to our canonical representation, and those of models with overidentifying restrictions.Term structure; canonical models

Canonical term-structure models with observable factors and the dynamics of bond risk premiums

We study the dynamics of risk premiums on the German bond market, employing no-arbitrage term-structure models with both observable and unobservable state variables, recently popularized by Ang and Piazzesi (2003). We conduct a specification analisys based on a new canonical representation for this class of models. We find that risk premiums display a considerable variability over time, are strongly counter-cyclical and bear no significant relation to inflation.term structure models, yield curve, risk premium

Till Labor Cost Do Us Part A Vecm Model of Unit Labor Cost Convergence in the Euro Area

A sustainable path of relative competitiveness among the EMU countries is a key factor for the survivorship of the currency union in the long run. We analyze unit labor costs in the European Union with VECM methodology to evaluate relative competitiveness of euro area countries, controlling for exchange rate on the adjustment dynamics, for the economy as a whole and for the manufacturing sector, considered as a proxy of the tradable sector. Results show a lack of convergence of member countries, which is more pronounced for the tradable sector. Persisting idiosyncratic dynamics may be driven by different bargaining policies and institutional structures of national labor markets, and by differential path of technological advance deterring convergence of long run productivity.Unit labor costs, Exchange Rates, Convergence, Competitiveness, Manufacturing Sector

Till labor cost do us part. On the long run convergence of EMU countries

A sustainable long-run pattern in the relative competitiveness of euro area countries is a key factor for the survivorship of the monetary union. We analyze the issue focussing on unit labor cost dynamics using cointegration analysis for the whole economy and for the manufacturing sector separately. Our findings show that the introduction of the euro has increased, rather than decreased, the distance among member countries, as measured in the metric of unit labor costs. Dispersion of productivity rather than wage compensation suggests that persisting idiosyncratic dynamics are driven by real factors, i.e. diverging technological patterns rather than by monetary factors, expressed by wage compensation.

Bond risk premia, macroeconomic fundamentals and the exchange rate

We introduce a two-country no-arbitrage term-structure model to analyse the joint dynamics of bond yields, macroeconomic variables, and the exchange rate. The model allows to understand how exogenous shocks to the exchange rate affect the yield curves, how bond yields co-move in different countries, and how the exchange rate is influenced by the interactions between macroeconomic variables and time-varying bond risk premia. Estimating the model with US and German data, we obtain an excellent fit of the yield curves and we are able to account for up to 75 per cent of the variability of the exchange rate. We find that time-varying risk premia play a non-negligible role in exchange rate fluctuations due to the fact that a currency tends to appreciate when risk premia on long-term bonds denominated in that currency rise. A number of other novel empirical findings emerge.exchange rate, term structure, UIP

Stock Values and Fundamentals; Link or Irrationality?

In this paper, econometric techniques are employed to analyze the continuous and remarkable growth which has characterized international stock markets since 1995. The Campbell and Shiller dividend discount model, a dynamic version of Gordon's formula commonly employed by financial analysts to rate individual firms, is the main tool of the paper. Given the information set available at any time, the future values of the real interest rate and the expected growth of dividends are evaluated and employed as explanatory variables for the current dividend yield. The results of the econometric analysis demonstrate that current dividend yields are not in line with the expected trend in the underlying variables, for all the countries considered. A decline in the real interest rate or an increase in the expected growth of dividends, or a combination of the two, could reconcile fundamentals and current dividend yields. The assessment of whether or not such divergences are rational cannot be made safely on the basis of expectations of the fundamentals derived from the econometric scheme. These, in fact, rest on the hypothesis of rational expectations for agents utilizing the full information set of past information; of course, information related to a larger set, including survey data, or the effects of shifts in economic regimes are excluded in this setup.asset pricing, dividend yield, dividend discount model

International investment positions and risk sharing: an empirical analysis on the coordinated portfolio investment survey

By using data from all available waves of the IMF Coordinated Portfolio In- vestment Surveys, we explore the dynamics of the determinants of cross portfolio investments. The main aim of our analysis, however, is to understand whether a diversification motive can also be found, among the various determinants. We find strong evidence that, indeed, the correlation between the idiosyncratic components of gdp growth, as well as the correlation between stock returns between pair of coun- tries, that we consider as proxies for diversification, are relevant to explain bilateral portfolio holdings, when unobserved heterogeneity is properly taken into account, by means of a fixed effect, panel estimation (where the fixed effects refer to pair of countries, rather than countries in isolation). Interestingly, the same results, cannot be retrieved from cross section estimations. It also turns out that the diversification motive is less relevant, if at all, in choosing whether or not to invest in a particular area

Family dissolution and precautionary savings: an empirical analysis

The main research question of this paper is whether or not the risk of family disruption has an impact on the consumption/saving decisions of households. Although little empirical work exists in this area, often presenting indirect evidence, the theory is divided over the effect of family risk over saving and wealth accumulation. By using data from the Italian Survey on Households Income and Wealth, we build a probabilistic model to assess the probability of marital splitting, and then we insert this probability as a distinct or interacted regressor, in a statistically consistent way, into a linear model of consumption. Furthermore, we study the differential behaviour, in terms of consumption/saving choices, of couples experiencing marital splitting over the subsequent two years. The main result of our analysis is that family disruption risk generates precautionary savings, reducing current consumption. In fact, according to our estimates, on average, the risk of divorce generates an amount of additional yearly precautionary savings of around 800 euros at constant prices of the year 2000, which represents 11% of overall household savings.Family disruption risk; Precautionary saving; Risk sharing