Viability report for the ByWater Lakes project

This report presents the results from the hydrological, ecological, and renewable energy assessments conducted by Sandia National Laboratories at the ByWater Lakes site in Espanola, New Mexico for ByWater Recreation LLC and Avanyu Energy Services through the New Mexico small business assistance (NMSBA) program. Sandia's role was to assess the viability and provide perspective for enhancing the site to take advantage of renewable energy resources, improve and sustain the natural systems, develop a profitable operation, and provide an asset for the local community. Integral to this work was the identification the pertinent data and data gaps as well as making general observations about the potential issues and concerns that may arise from further developing the site. This report is informational only with no consideration with regards to the business feasibility of the various options that ByWater and Avanyu may be pursuing

Risk assessment of climate systems for national security.

Climate change, through drought, flooding, storms, heat waves, and melting Arctic ice, affects the production and flow of resource within and among geographical regions. The interactions among governments, populations, and sectors of the economy require integrated assessment based on risk, through uncertainty quantification (UQ). This project evaluated the capabilities with Sandia National Laboratories to perform such integrated analyses, as they relate to (inter)national security. The combining of the UQ results from climate models with hydrological and economic/infrastructure impact modeling appears to offer the best capability for national security risk assessments

A systematic review of the literature examining the diagnostic efficacy of measurement of fractionated plasma free metanephrines in the biochemical diagnosis of pheochromocytoma

BACKGROUND: Fractionated plasma metanephrine measurements are commonly used in biochemical testing in search of pheochromocytoma. METHODS: We aimed to critically appraise the diagnostic efficacy of fractionated plasma free metanephrine measurements in detecting pheochromocytoma. Nine electronic databases, meeting abstracts, and the Science Citation Index were searched and supplemented with previously unpublished data. Methodologic and reporting quality was independently assessed by two endocrinologists using a checklist developed by the Standards for Reporting of Diagnostic Studies Accuracy Group and data were independently abstracted. RESULTS: Limitations in methodologic quality were noted in all studies. In all subjects (including those with genetic predisposition): the sensitivities for detection of pheochromocytoma were 96%–100% (95% CI ranged from 82% to 100%), whereas the specificities were 85%–100% (95% CI ranged from 78% to 100%). Statistical heterogeneity was noted upon pooling positive likelihood ratios when those with predisposition to disease were included (p < 0.001). However, upon pooling the positive or negative likelihood ratios for patients with sporadic pheochromocytoma (n = 191) or those at risk for sporadic pheochromocytoma (n = 718), no statistical heterogeneity was noted (p = 0.4). For sporadic subjects, the pooled positive likelihood ratio was 5.77 (95% CI = 4.90, 6.81) and the pooled negative likelihood ratio was 0.02 (95% CI = 0.01, 0.07). CONCLUSION: Negative plasma fractionated free metanephrine measurements are effective in ruling out pheochromocytoma. However, a positive test result only moderately increases suspicion of disease, particularly when screening for sporadic pheochromocytoma

Integrated system dynamics toolbox for water resources planning.

Public mediated resource planning is quickly becoming the norm rather than the exception. Unfortunately, supporting tools are lacking that interactively engage the public in the decision-making process and integrate over the myriad values that influence water policy. In the pages of this report we document the first steps toward developing a specialized decision framework to meet this need; specifically, a modular and generic resource-planning ''toolbox''. The technical challenge lies in the integration of the disparate systems of hydrology, ecology, climate, demographics, economics, policy and law, each of which influence the supply and demand for water. Specifically, these systems, their associated processes, and most importantly the constitutive relations that link them must be identified, abstracted, and quantified. For this reason, the toolbox forms a collection of process modules and constitutive relations that the analyst can ''swap'' in and out to model the physical and social systems unique to their problem. This toolbox with all of its modules is developed within the common computational platform of system dynamics linked to a Geographical Information System (GIS). Development of this resource-planning toolbox represents an important foundational element of the proposed interagency center for Computer Aided Dispute Resolution (CADRe). The Center's mission is to manage water conflict through the application of computer-aided collaborative decision-making methods. The Center will promote the use of decision-support technologies within collaborative stakeholder processes to help stakeholders find common ground and create mutually beneficial water management solutions. The Center will also serve to develop new methods and technologies to help federal, state and local water managers find innovative and balanced solutions to the nation's most vexing water problems. The toolbox is an important step toward achieving the technology development goals of this center

Gravity-destabilized nonwetting phase invasion in macro-heterogeneous porous media: Experimental observations of invasion dynamics and scale analysis

The authors designed and conducted experiments in a heterogeneous sand pack where gravity-destabilized nonwetting phase invasion (CO{sub 2} and TCE) could be recorded using high resolution light transmission methods. The heterogeneity structure was designed to be reminiscent of fluvial channel lag cut-and-fill architecture and contain a series of capillary barriers. As invasion progressed, nonwetting phase structure developed a series of fingers and pools; behind the growing front they found nonwetting phase saturation to pulsate in certain regions when viscous forces were low. Through a scale analysis, they derive a series of length scales that describe finger diameter, pool height and width, and regions where pulsation occurs within a heterogeneous porous medium. In all cases, they find that the intrinsic pore scale nature of the invasion process and resulting structure must be incorporated into the analysis to explain experimental results. The authors propose a simple macro-scale structural growth model that assembles length scales for sub-structures to delineate nonwetting phase migration from a source into a heterogeneous domain. For such a model applied at the field scale for DNAPL migration, they expect capillary and gravity forces within the complex subsurface lithology to play the primary roles with viscous forces forming a perturbation on the inviscid phase structure

Modeling the Gila-San Francisco Basin using system dynamics in support of the 2004 Arizona Water Settlement Act.

Water resource management requires collaborative solutions that cross institutional and political boundaries. This work describes the development and use of a computer-based tool for assessing the impact of additional water allocation from the Gila River and the San Francisco River prescribed in the 2004 Arizona Water Settlements Act. Between 2005 and 2010, Sandia National Laboratories engaged concerned citizens, local water stakeholders, and key federal and state agencies to collaboratively create the Gila-San Francisco Decision Support Tool. Based on principles of system dynamics, the tool is founded on a hydrologic balance of surface water, groundwater, and their associated coupling between water resources and demands. The tool is fitted with a user interface to facilitate sensitivity studies of various water supply and demand scenarios. The model also projects the consumptive use of water in the region as well as the potential CUFA (Consumptive Use and Forbearance Agreement which stipulates when and where Arizona Water Settlements Act diversions can be made) diversion over a 26-year horizon. Scenarios are selected to enhance our understanding of the potential human impacts on the rivers ecological health in New Mexico; in particular, different case studies thematic to water conservation, water rights, and minimum flow are tested using the model. The impact on potential CUFA diversions, agricultural consumptive use, and surface water availability are assessed relative to the changes imposed in the scenarios. While it has been difficult to gage the acceptance level from the stakeholders, the technical information that the model provides are valuable for facilitating dialogues in the context of the new settlement

Modeling the Gila-San Francisco Basin using system dynamics in support of the 2004 Arizona Water Settlement Act.

Water resource management requires collaborative solutions that cross institutional and political boundaries. This work describes the development and use of a computer-based tool for assessing the impact of additional water allocation from the Gila River and the San Francisco River prescribed in the 2004 Arizona Water Settlements Act. Between 2005 and 2010, Sandia National Laboratories engaged concerned citizens, local water stakeholders, and key federal and state agencies to collaboratively create the Gila-San Francisco Decision Support Tool. Based on principles of system dynamics, the tool is founded on a hydrologic balance of surface water, groundwater, and their associated coupling between water resources and demands. The tool is fitted with a user interface to facilitate sensitivity studies of various water supply and demand scenarios. The model also projects the consumptive use of water in the region as well as the potential CUFA (Consumptive Use and Forbearance Agreement which stipulates when and where Arizona Water Settlements Act diversions can be made) diversion over a 26-year horizon. Scenarios are selected to enhance our understanding of the potential human impacts on the rivers ecological health in New Mexico; in particular, different case studies thematic to water conservation, water rights, and minimum flow are tested using the model. The impact on potential CUFA diversions, agricultural consumptive use, and surface water availability are assessed relative to the changes imposed in the scenarios. While it has been difficult to gage the acceptance level from the stakeholders, the technical information that the model provides are valuable for facilitating dialogues in the context of the new settlement