De recent overeengekomen digitale videostandaard : een speltheoretisch analyse

Dit artikel toont aan dat technologisch vooroplopen niet totde beste marktresultaten hoeft te leiden. Hiertoe wordt allereerst een korte samenvatting van de ervaringen met de strijd om de analoge videostandaard gegeven. Vervolgens worden gebeurtenissen beschreven die voorafgegaan zijn aan de uiteindelijke overeenkomst tot een uniforme standaard voor digitale video. Tevens worden kenmerkende strategische acties van de betrokken ondernemingen toege!icht. Tenslotte worden deze acties aan de hand van een speltheoretisch raamwerk voor productstandaardisatie gepresenteerd

The V-shaped value evolution of R&D projects

On average the expected value at the moment of commercialization of an R&D project should remain constant during the different stages of new product development. Contrary to this intuition however, we find a systematic, non-constant pattern in the average expected value of an R&D project. First, the value declines after the initial screening, then rises after the first market analysis, but on average does not reach the initial level at the final stage of development when resources for market introduction are approved. Moreover uncertainty about the project value declines over time. The findings suggest a V-shaped value function of R&D projects. Our study seems to be the first attempt to make direct measurements of valuing R&D projects through time in a real managerial setting

R&D as an option on market introduction

Discounted cash flow methods for making R&D investment decisions cannot properly capture the option value in R&D. Since market and technology uncertainties change expectations about the viability of many new products, the value of projects is frequently adjusted during the R&D stages. Capturing the adjustment in expectations has an option value that may significantly differ from the Net Present Value of R&D projects. However, there are no historic time series for estimating the uncertainty of the value of R&D projects. As a result, the standard Black and Scholes model for financial option valuation needs to be adjusted. The aim of this paper is to report the application of a particular option pricing model for setting the budget of R&D projects. The option value of the model captures jumps or business shifts in market or technology conditions. The approach originates from applying current insight into the valuation of R&D projects to the field of multimedia research at Philips Corporate Research. This way, the gap between real option theory and R&D practice is further diminished