A baseline evaluation of atmospheric and river discharge conditions in the Hudson Bay Complex during 2016-2018

In this article, we examine atmospheric and river discharge conditions within the Hudson Bay Complex for the BaySys 2016–2018 field program time frame. Investigated in particular is a subset of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis - Interim (ERA-Interim) atmospheric forcing variables, namely 2-m surface temperature, 10-m surface winds, precipitation, and sea-level pressure, in addition to river discharge. Results from this assessment show that 2016 was characterized by unusually warm conditions (terrestrial and marine) throughout the annual cycle; 2017 by strong cyclone activity in March and high precipitation in January, October, and November; and 2018 by cold and windy conditions throughout the annual cycle. Evaluation of terrestrial conditions showed higher than normal land surface temperatures (the Hudson Bay physical watershed) for all of the 2016–2018 period (excluding a colder than normal spell August–November 2018), particularly in January (2016 and 2017), higher than normal precipitation in October (2016 and 2017), and higher than normal terrestrial discharge to the Hudson Bay Complex in March (2016 and 2017), with drier than average June through October (2016–2018)

Simulated impacts of relative climate change and river discharge regulation on sea ice and oceanographic conditions in the Hudson Bay Complex

In this analysis, we examine relative contributions from climate change and river discharge regulation to changes in marine conditions in the Hudson Bay Complex using a subset of five atmospheric forcing scenarios from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), river discharge data from the Hydrological Predictions for the Environment (HYPE) model, both naturalized (without anthropogenic intervention) and regulated (anthropogenically controlled through diversions, dams, reservoirs), and output from the Nucleus for European Modeling of the Ocean Ice-Ocean model for the 1981–2070 time frame. Investigated in particular are spatiotemporal changes in sea surface temperature, sea ice concentration and thickness, and zonal and meridional sea ice drift in response to (i) climate change through comparison of historical (1981–2010) and future (2021–2050 and 2041–2070) simulations, (ii) regulation through comparison of historical (1981–2010) naturalized and regulated simulations, and (iii) climate change and regulation combined through comparison of future (2021–2050 and 2041–2070) naturalized and regulated simulations. Also investigated is use of the diagnostic known as e-folding time spatial distribution to monitor changes in persistence in these variables in response to changing climate and regulation impacts in the Hudson Bay Complex. Results from this analysis highlight bay-wide and regional reductions in sea ice concentration and thickness in southwest and northeast Hudson Bay in response to a changing climate, and east-west asymmetry in sea ice drift response in support of past studies. Regulation is also shown to amplify or suppress the climate change signal. Specifically, regulation amplifies sea surface temperatures from April to August, suppresses sea ice loss by approximately 30% in March, contributes to enhanced sea ice drift speed by approximately 30%, and reduces meridional circulation by approximately 20% in January due to enhanced zonal drift. Results further suggest that the offshore impacts of regulation are amplified in a changing climate

The effects of atmospheric and lateral buoyancy fluxes on Labrador Sea mixed layer depth

The depth of the Labrador Sea mixed layer during winter convection is a balance between atmospheric buoyancy loss and lateral buoyancy exchange, and is notoriously difficult to represent accurately in ocean and climate models. This study shows that lateral exchanges of heat and salt between the shelf and the interior are smaller in a regional coupled ocean–sea ice model at higher vertical resolution (75 levels compared with 50 levels), due in part to altered bathymetry along the Greenland shelf. Reduced lateral exchange results in a stronger stratification in the interior of the Labrador Sea, with stronger convection resistance which results in unrealistically shallow mixed layers. The westward fluxes of heat and salt associated with Irminger Water at Cape Farewell are 50 % and 33 % lower, respectively, with higher vertical resolution. Exchanges south of the Labrador Sea from the North Atlantic Current are also smaller, contributing to a reduction in salt and heat import into the Labrador Sea interior. When the high resolution model is forced with a stronger wintertime buoyancy loss at the ocean surface, this weakens the Labrador Sea stratification, allowing the forcing to break through the freshwater cap and increasing convection, bringing mixed layer depths back to observed values. A strong atmospheric forcing can therefore compensate for a reduction in lateral advection. The mixed layer depths, which are representative of convection and Labrador Sea water formation, will be the focus in this study. Therefore, this study suggests that convection and Labrador Sea Water formation is a complex interplay of surface and lateral fluxes, linked to stratification thresholds

The effects of atmospheric and lateral buoyancy fluxes on Labrador Sea mixed layer depth

The depth of the Labrador Sea mixed layer during winter convection is a balance between atmospheric buoyancy loss and lateral buoyancy exchange, and is notoriously difficult to represent accurately in ocean and climate models. This study shows that lateral exchanges of heat and salt between the shelf and the interior are smaller in a regional coupled ocean–sea ice model at higher vertical resolution (75 levels compared with 50 levels), due in part to altered bathymetry along the Greenland shelf. Reduced lateral exchange results in a stronger stratification in the interior of the Labrador Sea, with stronger convection resistance which results in unrealistically shallow mixed layers. The westward fluxes of heat and salt associated with Irminger Water at Cape Farewell are 50 % and 33 % lower, respectively, with higher vertical resolution. Exchanges south of the Labrador Sea from the North Atlantic Current are also smaller, contributing to a reduction in salt and heat import into the Labrador Sea interior. When the high resolution model is forced with a stronger wintertime buoyancy loss at the ocean surface, this weakens the Labrador Sea stratification, allowing the forcing to break through the freshwater cap and increasing convection, bringing mixed layer depths back to observed values. A strong atmospheric forcing can therefore compensate for a reduction in lateral advection. The mixed layer depths, which are representative of convection and Labrador Sea water formation, will be the focus in this study. Therefore, this study suggests that convection and Labrador Sea Water formation is a complex interplay of surface and lateral fluxes, linked to stratification thresholds