POPULATION AGEING AND LABOUR SUPPLY PROSPECTS IN CHINA FROM 2005 TO 2050

Increasing life expectancy and rapid fertility decline in China since the 1970s have accelerated the rate of population ageing, fuelling the prospects of an ageing workforce and a significant slowdown in the growth of the working age population. The present paper examines the trend of labour supply in China over the next 45 years under alternative fertility scenarios by taking account of the demographic composition effect and potential trends of the age-and sex-specific labour force participation rates. The main finding is that the labour supply contraction will accelerate from 2020 onwards in response to population ageing and the probable attrition of the LFPR of the young population. Relaxing the current one-child policy may moderate the adverse labour market consequences by increasing the base of the working age population and decelerate the rate of population ageing.population ageing, labour supply and China

China’s new growth pattern and its effect on energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions

China’s economic transformation and new growth pattern have significant implications for energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions. Using an extended version of a large computable general equilibrium model of China, we explore alternative futures for the Chinese economy and its energy needs over the period from 2015 to 2030. The simulation results show that encouraging household consumption and accelerating economic transition from investment-led to service-led growth will boost China’s economic growth. Capping coal consumption will improve China’s energy consumption structure and reduce greenhouse gas emissions significantly. The simulation exercises imply that, with a well-designed policy, the Chinese government can meet the challenges of strong economic growth, lower carbon emissions, environmental benefits, and energy security. Moreover, the Chinese government’s goal of peaking carbon emissions at 2030 is achievable. Keywords: Dynamic computable general equilibrium model, Economic transition, Energy demand, Greenhouse gas emissions, Economic effect

Estimating the economic impact of large hydropower projects: a dynamic multi-regional computable general equilibrium analysis

In response to rapidly growing energy demands, Chinese authorities plan to invest more in hydropower development. However, there are concerns about the possible effects on macroeconomy. This paper uses SinoTERM, a dynamic multi-regional computable general equilibrium model (CGE) of the Chinese economy, to analyze the economic impact of large hydropower development projects. The model features regional labor market dynamics and an electricity subdivision module with substitutability between various types of electricity generation. The results suggest that hydropower development will boost economic growth in the project region. Most sectors in the project region will benefit from the hydropower development such as other services, health, and education, while some sectors will suffer a loss in output because of the substantial increase in real wages. For the national, every 10,000 yuan investment can drive the national GDP growth of 1,000 yuan, and the cost is expected to be recovered in ten years. By the end of 2040, the real national wage will be around 0.16% higher than the baseline scenario. The project could only be justified if net environmental benefits outweigh this loss

Zhongguo ren kou lao ling hua de hong guan jing ji hou guo : ying yong yi ban jun heng fen xi

This article is only available in Chinese text. It was published in a Chinese language journal and is not available in Australia. Translated title = Macroeconomic consequences of population ageing in China: a computable general equilibrium analysisThe paper explores the macroeconomic consequences of the population ageing over the period of 2000 to 2100 in China using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The simulation exercise shows that the main effect of population ageing is to decelerate aggregate economic growth through the negative growth of labour supply and reduction in the rate of physical capital formation. Secondly, material living standards keep improving but at a declining rate. Finally, productivity improvement is the main force that sustains China's economic growth during the 21st century against the backdrop of population ageing.http://www.ceps.com.tw/ec/ecjnlarticleView.aspx?jnlcattype=1&jnlptype=2&jnltype=9&jnliid=2461&issueiid=33309&atliid=49387

Labour Market Reform, Rural Migration and Income Inequality in China -A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis Labour Market Reform, Rural Migration and Income Inequality in China --A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis

Abstract: Using a dynamic CGE model this paper explores the effects of reform of the household registration (hukou) system in China on economic growth and rural -urban income equality over the period 2010 to 2020. It addresses the specific questions whether reform of the household registration system together with the removal of other institutional barriers to rural labour mobility can accelerate rural labour mobility, and whether the enhanced labour mobility can improve the efficiency of the allocation of labour with the result of increasing labour productivity and reducing rural-urban income inequality

Population Ageing, Pension System and Retirement Age Extension in China --- an Applied Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis

China is experiencing rapid population ageing. According to UN’s medium variant population projection, the proportion of population aged 65 and over will increase from10.5% in 2015 to 11.7% in 2020 and further to 23.9% in 2050. Meanwhile its working age population aged 15 to 64 declined at 2015 and will continue to decline. Furthermore, China’s low retirement age compounds the ageing problem. The rapid population ageing is putting high pressure on China's current pension system. Using a dynamic CGE model of the Chinese economy, We investigate the effect of rapid population ageing on the macro economy and the current pension system. We also explore whether increasing the retirement age can mitigate the negative effect of population ageing and reduce the burden of pension system

Population ageing, human capital accumulation and economic growth in China : an applied general equilibrium analysis

© Taylor & FrancisThis paper uses a Computable General Equilibrium model to explore the macroeconomic impact of growth in the human capital stock for a given ageing profile of the population in China, during the first half of this century. It examines whether the projected reduction in the total dependency ratio for the period 2000 to the 2030s can be exploited for energetic human capital formation. Policy simulations show that accelerating human capital formation raises both total output and per capita real income dramatically. Public expenditure on education is, therefore, welfare enhancing, mitigating the adverse effects of population ageing while laying the foundation for supporting China's rapidly increasing elderly population. The basic policy message is that China should significantly increase investment in human capital. The long implementation lags of such policies and the rapidly growing proportion of the elderly population suggest that this investment should be undertaken without delay