Designing and testing inflationary models with Bayesian networks

Even simple inflationary scenarios have many free parameters. Beyond the variables appearing in the inflationary action, these include dynamical initial conditions, the number of fields, and couplings to other sectors. These quantities are often ignored but cosmological observables can depend on the unknown parameters. We use Bayesian networks to account for a large set of inflationary parameters, deriving generative models for the primordial spectra that are conditioned on a hierarchical set of prior probabilities describing the initial conditions, reheating physics, and other free parameters. We use $N_f$--quadratic inflation as an illustrative example, finding that the number of $e$-folds $N_*$ between horizon exit for the pivot scale and the end of inflation is typically the most important parameter, even when the number of fields, their masses and initial conditions are unknown, along with possible conditional dependencies between these parameters.Comment: 24 pages, 9 figures, 1 table; discussion update

Constraining cosmological ultra-large scale structure using numerical relativity

Cosmic inflation, a period of accelerated expansion in the early universe, can give rise to large amplitude ultra-large scale inhomogeneities on distance scales comparable to or larger than the observable universe. The cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropy on the largest angular scales is sensitive to such inhomogeneities and can be used to constrain the presence of ultra-large scale structure (ULSS). We numerically evolve nonlinear inhomogeneities present at the beginning of inflation in full General Relativity to assess the CMB quadrupole constraint on the amplitude of the initial fluctuations and the size of the observable universe relative to a length scale characterizing the ULSS. To obtain a statistically significant number of simulations, we adopt a toy model in which inhomogeneities are injected along a preferred direction. We compute the likelihood function for the CMB quadrupole including both ULSS and the standard quantum fluctuations produced during inflation. We compute the posterior given the observed CMB quadrupole, finding that when including gravitational nonlinearities, ULSS curvature perturbations of order unity are allowed by the data, even on length scales not too much larger than the size of the observable universe. Our results illustrate the utility and importance of numerical relativity for constraining early universe cosmology.Comment: 14 pages, 6 figures v3: Clarifications added regarding the generality of results - conclusions unchanged, version accepted for publication in PRD, v2: updated with minor clarifications, submitte

Forecasting constraints from the cosmic microwave background on eternal inflation

We forecast the ability of cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature and polarization datasets to constrain theories of eternal inflation using cosmic bubble collisions. Using the Fisher matrix formalism, we determine both the overall detectability of bubble collisions and the constraints achievable on the fundamental parameters describing the underlying theory. The CMB signatures considered are based on state-of-the-art numerical relativistic simulations of the bubble collision spacetime, evolved using the full temperature and polarization transfer functions. Comparing a theoretical cosmic-variance-limited experiment to the WMAP and Planck satellites, we find that there is no improvement to be gained from future temperature data, that adding polarization improves detectability by approximately 30%, and that cosmic-variance-limited polarization data offer only marginal improvements over Planck. The fundamental parameter constraints achievable depend on the precise values of the tensor-to-scalar ratio and energy density in (negative) spatial curvature. For a tensor-to-scalar ratio of $0.1$ and spatial curvature at the level of $10^{-4}$, using cosmic-variance-limited data it is possible to measure the width of the potential barrier separating the inflating false vacuum from the true vacuum down to $M_{\rm Pl}/500$, and the initial proper distance between colliding bubbles to a factor $\pi/2$ of the false vacuum horizon size (at three sigma). We conclude that very near-future data will have the final word on bubble collisions in the CMB.Comment: 14 pages, 6 figure

First Observational Tests of Eternal Inflation

The eternal inflation scenario predicts that our observable Universe resides inside a single bubble embedded in a vast inflating multiverse. We present the first observational tests of eternal inflation, performing a search for cosmological signatures of collisions with other bubble universes in cosmic microwave background data from the WMAP satellite. We conclude that the WMAP 7-year data do not warrant augmenting the cold dark matter model with a cosmological constant with bubble collisions, constraining the average number of detectable bubble collisions on the full sky N̅ _s<1.6 at 68% C.L. Data from the Planck satellite can be used to more definitively test the bubble-collision hypothesis

Testable polarization predictions for models of CMB isotropy anomalies

Anomalies in the large-scale CMB temperature sky measured by WMAP have been suggested as possible evidence for a violation of statistical isotropy on large scales. In any physical model for broken isotropy, there are testable consequences for the CMB polarization field. We develop simulation tools for predicting the polarization field in models that break statistical isotropy locally through a modulation field. We study two different models: dipolar modulation, invoked to explain the asymmetry in power between northern and southern ecliptic hemispheres, and quadrupolar modulation, posited to explain the alignments between the quadrupole and octopole. For the dipolar case, we show that predictions for the correlation between the first 10 multipoles of the temperature and polarization fields can typically be tested at better than the 98% CL. For the quadrupolar case, we show that the polarization quadrupole and octopole should be moderately aligned. Such an alignment is a generic prediction of explanations which involve the temperature field at recombination and thus discriminate against explanations involving foregrounds or local secondary anisotropy. Predicted correlations between temperature and polarization multipoles out to l = 5 provide tests at the ~ 99% CL or stronger for quadrupolar models that make the temperature alignment more than a few percent likely. As predictions of anomaly models, polarization statistics move beyond the a posteriori inferences that currently dominate the field.Comment: 17 pages, 15 figures; published in PRD; references adde

A robust constraint on cosmic textures from the cosmic microwave background

Fluctuations in the cosmic microwave background (CMB) contain information which has been pivotal in establishing the current cosmological model. These data can also be used to test well-motivated additions to this model, such as cosmic textures. Textures are a type of topological defect that can be produced during a cosmological phase transition in the early universe, and which leave characteristic hot and cold spots in the CMB. We apply Bayesian methods to carry out a rigorous test of the texture hypothesis, using full-sky data from the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe. We conclude that current data do not warrant augmenting the standard cosmological model with textures. We rule out at 95% confidence models that predict more than 6 detectable cosmic textures on the full sky.Comment: 5 pages, 2 figures. v2: replaced with version accepted by PRL (minor amendments to reduce length and address referee comments