Measuring monetary conditions in Europe: use and limitations of the monetary conditions index. MRPA Paper No. 23534, 1999

The Monetary Conditions Index is a composite index of interest and exchange rates frequently used by central banks, the IMF, and the OECD. This paper considers the benefits and weaknesses of the MCI in the light of large macroeconometric models. It follows that the impact of the exchange rate on GDP relative to the impact of the short-term interest rate is substantially lower under a monetary union. For most countries, including a long-term interest rate in the MCI only affects the level of the MCI and not its turning points

Modelling unemployment in the presence of excess labour supply

Due to its pyramid population structure, Egypt needs to create jobs at a high pace to absorb the many new entrants at its labour market. This article structurally models and quantifies the impact of these demographic shocks and the shedding of public sector jobs on unemployment. The findings indicate that Egypt needs to grow at 5% for many years to come. Job creation better occurs in the private than in the public sector. Egypt’s public sector has been driving up government expenditures disproportionably, not only because of the numerous public sector employees but also because of high public wage growth.Demography, labour supply, employment, public sector employment, public finance.

The changing pattern in international trade and capital flows of the Gulf cooperation council countries in comparison with other oil-exporting countries

During the past decade the Gulf cooperation council countries have achieved a remarkably high degree of trade and financial integration in the world economy. Before the global crisis began, they invested their abundant oil income which resulted from high energy prices and high world demand, in return abundantly abroad. Thanks to policies that are geared towards opening up borders, the Gulf cooperation council countries have imparted a significant stimulus to the world economy, to a much greater extent than other oil exporting countries in similar conditions. The development of the gross capital flows in view of the recent global crisis and their composition are the main focus of this study. It aims at providing a comprehensive overview of the pattern of the current and capital account of the balance of payments of the group of six Gulf cooperation council countries, and benchmarks this group with the other OPEC countries that have a comparable size of natural resources. Aspects of globalization, trade and financial integration, such as the dependence on oil, “Dutch disease”, regional integration, foreign direct investment and cross-border assets and loans are addressed. The impact of the crisis is found to have reverted international capital flows of the GCC, in particular cross-border bank loans and deposits.Gulf countries; trade; capital flows; balance of payments; oil-exports;

Measuring monetary conditions in Europe: Use and limitations of the monetary conditions index

The monetary conditions index is a composite index of interest and exchange rates frequently used by central banks, the International Monetary Fund, and the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. This paper considers the benefits and weaknesses of the monetary conditions index in the light of large macroeconometric models. It follows that the impact of the exchange rate on gross domestic product relative to the impact of the short-term interest rate is substantially lower under a monetary union. For most countries, including a long-term interest rate only affects the level of the monetary conditions index and not its turning points.monetary conditions; exchange rates; interest rates; monetary policy; macroeconometric model

Parliamentary election outcomes in the Netherlands during 1981-2010: Have they become more determined by regional than national (economic) performance?

Parliamentary election outcomes have recently shifted significantly in some small open economies with high living standards. As regional differences widened, this study goes down to the regional level and investigates whether or not regional factors have been driving the election outcomes. An econometric model is designed explaining the election outcomes of the left-wing, middle and right-wing parties per municipality by latent variables at the country and regional levels. A panel of ten Parliamentary election outcomes of municipalities in the Netherlands during the period 1981-2010 is used to calculate the sizes of the national and regional factors' impact in three steps. First, principal component analyses are applied to measure the latent variables. Second, the econometric model is estimated by Seemingly Unrelated Regressions. Third, the responses of the election outcomes per party in reaction to country and regional shocks are simulated. The results indicate that regional factors have indeed determined election outcomes more than national factors in the period 2002-2010 in comparison with the period 1982-1994 for the left-wing, the middle and also the right-wing parties. Part of the explanation comes from regional differences in unemployment, demographic developments (greenness and greyness) and committed crimes.election outcomes; Parliamentary; Netherlands; regional and national principal components;

Demographic pressure, excess labour supply and public-private sector employment in Egypt - Modelling labour supply to analyse the response of unemployment, public finances and welfare

The demographic structure of Egypt has the form of a pyramid, indicating that labour supply will grow at a relatively high rate for many years to come. Unless emigration flows will rise, Egypt needs to create jobs at a much higher pace than most other countries around the globe to absorb the new entrants at the domestic labour market. Adding to this is the currently high share of 30-40% of the Egyptian employees working in the rather inefficient public sector. In order to quantify future developments at the labour market, this paper presents a labour supply model to analyze the impact of the ongoing demographic supply shocks on unemployment, public finances and welfare in Egypt. The findings indicate that the demographic labour supply will increase unemployment in the short term as the Egyptian labour market will not be able to absorb the demographic labour supply, unless the Egyptian economy grows steadily at least at 5% for many years in a row. In the long term, the employment dividend can be reaped by productivity growth increases if the labour market starts functioning. The findings also point out that, for growth to accelerate rapidly, job creation should occur in the private and not in the public sector. The large public sector has been driving up government expenditures disproportionably, not only because of the existence of the high number of people employed in the public sector but also because of excessive public wage increases.Demographics, labour supply, employment, greening, public sector employment, public finance

Food and energy prices, government subsidies and fiscal balances in south Mediterranean countries

Just before the global crisis soaring commodity prices pushed up inflation significantly, not least in EU neighbour countries at the Mediterranean. These price shocks affected public finances in the southern Mediterranean region, notably via government subsidies. Partly due to lags in the transmission of commodity prices into prices for final users the subsidies burden continued to be felt, despite the price falls registered in the wake of the credit crisis. We show that downward price rigidities play a role. Recently, commodity price pressures have re-emerged. We focus on food prices and analyse recent developments in food inflation in Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, the occupied Palestinian territories, Syria and Tunisia in comparison with other middle income economies. Subsidies on food and fuel are quantified per country for the period 2002-2010. The incremental government subsidies entail an estimated deterioration of the government balances of up to more than 2% of GDP in 2008 and, for most countries only slight improvements in the global recession year 2009. Ensuing longer-term challenges for public finances remain as inflation rises on the back of higher global economic growth. As recent events in Tunisia and Egypt illustrate, these can have important political implications. Finally, the paper discusses some options that can lead to more efficient government spending, even in the event of sharp swings in prices of basic necessities.food prices; energy prices; inflation; public finances; government subsidies

The circulation of euro banknotes and coins in the Netherlands

In the countries of the European economic and monetary union euro banknotes and coins will be put into circulation from January 1, 2002. Seven new banknotes will be issued and eight new coins. Each member country is responsible for the production and distribution of its domestic euro circulation. Therefore, these countries, in casu central banks and ministries of finance, each draw up their own plan for this project.We unfold a methodology for indicative forecasts of the euro circulation needed in 2002 by proposing two methods. The first method uses econometric models describing the demand for banknotes and the demand for coins. The second method starts from estimated over-the-counter payments in 2002, and calculates the required notes and coins.euro banknotes; euro coins; central banks; economic and monetary union;

Food and Energy Prices, Government Subsidies and Fiscal Balances in South Mediterranean Countries

Working paper, focusing on the impact of soaring commodity prices, notably for food and energy on the economy and public finances of Mediterranean neighbour countries of the EU. Just before the global crisis soaring commodity prices pushed up inflation significantly, not least in EU neighbour countries at the Mediterranean. These price shocks affected public finances in the southern Mediterranean region, notably via government subsidies. Partly due to lags in the transmission of commodity prices into prices for final users the subsidies burden continued to be felt, despite the price falls registered in the wake of the credit crisis. We show that downward price rigidities play a role. Recently, commodity price pressures have re-emerged. We focus on food prices and analyse recent developments in food inflation in Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, the occupied Palestinian territories, Syria and Tunisia in comparison with other middle income economies. Subsidies on food and fuel are quantified per country for the period 2002-2010. The incremental government subsidies entail an estimated deterioration of the government balances of up to more than 2% of GDP in 2008 and, for most countries only slight improvements in the global recession year 2009. Ensuing longer-term challenges for public finances remain as inflation rises on the back of higher global economic growth. As recent events in Tunisia illustrate, these can have important political implications. Finally, the paper discusses some options that can lead to more efficient government spending, even in the event of sharp swings in prices of basic necessities.

Macro-economic policy reactions to soaring food prices in Mediterranean countries, Russia, the CIS and the GCC

The aim of this study is to analyse the price developments and to compare national macroeconomic policies in response to the consumer prices that started to soar in 2007 across the European Neighbourhood Policy countries, the other arcelona countries2, Russia, the Gulf Cooperation Council countries and the euro area. The analyses focus primarily on ag-flation, but we analyse also the capital inflows in view of income levels in the EU's neighbour countries. The analyses unambiguously show that food inflation was pushing up total inflation, even despite the provision of food subsidies by national authorities.food inflation; macroeconomic policies; subsidies; biofuel;