Forecasting: theory and practice

Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases

Support for recovery in mobile systems

Mobile systems increasingly are being used for production-grade data-centered applications which require system support for transactional properties. For mobile applications, transactions can hide, to some extent, the infrastructure intrinsic to mobile systems, such as disconnection from the network, dozing, and storage limitations. In this paper, we introduce a framework to understand, specify, and reason about recovery support for transactional functionality, based on the notion of guarantees (promises one subsystem makes to another) and protocols (prescriptions for correct behavior). We apply our framework to a simple mobile system scenario, yielding an abstract specification that exposes the role of each component in achieving specific transactional semantics support, such as the redo-ability of committed updates that might be lost due to a failure; it also reveals unstated assumptions necessary for the correctness of recovery support. We also show how to reason about alternative ways of obtaining the desired transactional support and the requirements on the components to support recovery and transactions

Dipeptides as effective prodrugs of the unnatural amino acid (+)-2-aminobicyclo[3.1.0]hexane-2,6-dicarboxylic acid (LY354740), a selective group II metabotropic glutamate receptor agonist

(+)-2-Aminobicyclo[3.1.0]hexane-2,6-dicarboxylic acid (1), also known as LY354740, is a highly potent and selective agonist for group II metabotropic glutamate receptors (mGlu receptors 2 and 3) tested in clinical trials. It has been shown to block anxiety in the fear-potentiated startle model. Its relatively low bioavailability in different animal species drove the need for an effective prodrug form that would produce a therapeutic response at lower doses for the treatment of anxiety disorders. We have investigated the increase of intestinal absorption of this compound by targeting the human peptide transporter hPepT1 for active transport of di- and tripeptides derived from 1. We have found that oral administration of an N dipeptide derivative of 1 (12a) in rats shows up to an 8-fold increase in drug absorption and a 300-fold increase in potency in the fear-potentiated startle model in rats when compared with the parent drug 1

Forecasting: theory and practice

Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases. © 2021 The Author(s

Forecasting: Theory and Practice.

Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases