Deep Learning for Search and Matching Models

We develop a new method for characterizing global solutions to search and matching models with aggregate shocks and heterogeneous agents. We formulate general equilibrium as a high dimensional partial differential equation (PDE) with the distribution as a state variable. Solving this problem has previously been intractable because the distribution impacts agent decisions through the matching mechanism rather than through aggregate prices. We overcome these challenges by developing a new deep learning algorithm with efficient sampling in a high dimensional state space. This allows us to study search markets that are not “block recursive”. In applications to labor search models, we show that while block recursivity may approximately hold under symmetric shocks, it fails to capture the dynamics when shocks have an asymmetric impact. Business cycles have a “cleansing” effect by amplifying positive assortative matching in recessions, and the magnitude of the countercyclicality depends on the bargaining process between workers and firms

The accelerating influence of humans on mammalian macroecological patterns over the late Quaternary

The transition of hominins to a largely meat-based diet ~1.8 million years ago led to the exploitation of other mammals for food and resources. As hominins, particularly archaic and modern humans, became increasingly abundant and dispersed across the globe, a temporally and spatially transgressive extinction of large-bodied mammals followed; the degree of selectivity was unprecedented in the Cenozoic fossil record. Today, most remaining large-bodied mammal species are confined to Africa, where they coevolved with hominins. Here, using a comprehensive global dataset of mammal distribution, life history and ecology, we examine the consequences of “body size downgrading” of mammals over the late Quaternary on fundamental macroecological patterns. Specifically, we examine changes in species diversity, global and continental body size distributions, allometric scaling of geographic range size with body mass, and the scaling of maximum body size with area. Moreover, we project these patterns toward a potential future scenario in which all mammals currently listed as vulnerable on the IUCN\u27s Red List are extirpated. Our analysis demonstrates that anthropogenic impact on earth systems predates the terminal Pleistocene and has grown as populations increased and humans have become more widespread. Moreover, owing to the disproportionate influence on ecosystem structure and function of megafauna, past and present body size downgrading has reshaped Earth\u27s biosphere. Thus, macroecological studies based only on modern species yield distorted results, which are not representative of the patterns present for most of mammal evolution. Our review supports the concept of benchmarking the “Anthropocene” with the earliest activities of Homo sapiens

Taphonomic Bias of Selective Silicification Revealed by Paired Petrographic and Insoluble Residue Analysis

Silicification is an important mode of fossil preservation but the extent to which silicified material represents an unbiased sampling of the total fossil assemblage within a given rock sample remains poorly quantified. Here, we use paired analyses of thin sections and acid-extracted silicified specimens from the same samples to examine the biases introduced during silicification of Lower Triassic Virgin Limestone carbonates preserved in the Muddy Mountains of southern Nevada. Bivalves dominate most thin sections in the point count data, but rarely silicify completely enough to be recognized in residue. Echinoderms and gastropods are less abundant in thin section but dominate the residues. The abundances of these groups in thin section and residue are only weakly correlated. These findings suggest that although silicification generally captures relative trends in proportional abundance of higher taxa among samples, the silicification process can be taxonomically biased. Given the biases that can occur during silicification, it should not be assumed that silicified collections present a pristine picture of taxonomic or paleoecologic composition. Petrographic analysis has the potential to illuminate the reliability of paleontological data based on silicified collections

Lepidoptera demonstrate the relevance of Murray's Law to circulatory systems with tidal flow

Abstract Background Murray’s Law, which describes the branching architecture of bifurcating tubes, predicts the morphology of vessels in many amniotes and plants. Here, we use insects to explore the universality of Murray’s Law and to evaluate its predictive power for the wing venation of Lepidoptera, one of the most diverse insect orders. Lepidoptera are particularly relevant to the universality of Murray’s Law because their wing veins have tidal, or oscillatory, flow of air and hemolymph. We examined over one thousand wings representing 667 species of Lepidoptera. Results We found that veins with a diameter above approximately 50 microns conform to Murray’s Law, with veins below 50 microns in diameter becoming less and less likely to conform to Murray’s Law as they narrow. The minute veins that are most likely to deviate from Murray’s Law are also the most likely to have atrophied, which prevents efficient fluid transport regardless of branching architecture. However, the veins of many taxa continue to branch distally to the areas where they atrophied, and these too conform to Murray’s Law at larger diameters (e.g., Sesiidae). Conclusions This finding suggests that conformity to Murray’s Law in larger taxa may reflect requirements for structural support as much as fluid transport, or may indicate that selective pressures for fluid transport are stronger during the pupal stage—during wing development prior to vein atrophy—than the adult stage. Our results increase the taxonomic scope of Murray’s Law and provide greater clarity about the relevance of body size

Phanerozoic co-evolution of O 2 -CO 2 and ocean habitability

This perspective reviews how atmospheric compositions, animals and marine algae evolved together to determine global ocean habitability during the past 500 million years

Body size downgrading of mammals over the late Quaternary

Since the late Pleistocene, large-bodied mammals have been extirpated from much of Earth. Although all habitable continents once harbored giant mammals, the few remaining species are largely confined to Africa. This decline is coincident with the global expansion of hominins over the late Quaternary. Here, we quantify mammalian extinction selectivity, continental body size distributions, and taxonomic diversity over five time periods spanning the past 125,000 years and stretching approximately 200 years into the future. We demonstrate that size-selective extinction was already under way in the oldest interval and occurred on all continents, within all trophic modes, and across all time intervals. Moreover, the degree of selectivity was unprecedented in 65 million years of mammalian evolution. The distinctive selectivity signature implicates hominin activity as a primary driver of taxonomic losses and ecosystem homogenization. Because megafauna have a disproportionate influence on ecosystem structure and function, past and present body size downgrading is reshaping Earth’s biosphere. Includes Supplementary materials

Prognostic Factors in Patients with Multiple Recurrences of Well-Differentiated Thyroid Carcinoma

Introduction. Patients with multiple recurrences of well-differentiated thyroid carcinoma (WDTC) have markedly reduced overall survival when compared with those who have ≤1 recurrence of their disease. The purpose of this investigation is to identify prognostic factors for mortality in this subgroup. Methods. Patients with multiple recurrences of WDTC were retrospectively identified from the thyroid cancer database at Mount Sinai Hospital, Toronto (1963–2000). Data on patient, tumor, and recurrence characteristics were collected, and each patient was given a MACIS score. Results. A total of 31 patients were identified (11 male, 20 female; 16–83 years). Using univariate analysis, age >45, stage III/IV disease, distant metastasis, vascular invasion, MACIS score >6, and time to recurrence of <12 months were found to be significant predictors for mortality in this subgroup. Conclusions. Patients with multiple recurrences of WDTC follow a distinct clinical course, marked with multiple treatment failures and a substantial risk of mortality

The Role of Carbonate Factories and Sea Water Chemistry on Basin-Wide Ramp to High-Relief Carbonate Platform Evolution: Triassic, Nanpanjiang Basin, South China

The end-Permian extinction and its aftermath altered carbonate factories globally for millions of years, but its impact on platform geometries remains poorly understood. Here, the evolution in architecture and composition of two exceptionally exposed platforms in the Nanpanjiang Basin are constrained and compared with geochemical proxies to evaluate controls on platform geometries. Geochemical proxies indicate elevated siliciclastic and nutrient fluxes in the basal Triassic, at the Induan—Olenekian boundary and in the uppermost Olenekian. Cerium/Ce* shifts from high Ce/Ce* values and a lack of Ce anomaly indicating anoxia during the Lower Triassic to a negative Ce anomaly indicating oxygenation in the latest Olenekian and Anisian. Uranium and Mo depletion represents widespread anoxia in the world\u27s oceans in the Early Triassic with progressive oxygenation in the Anisian. Carbonate factories shifted from skeletal in the Late Permian to abiotic and microbial in the Early Triassic before returning to skeletal systems in the Middle Triassic, Anisian coincident with declining anoxia. Margin facies shifted to oolitic grainstone in the Early Triassic with development of giant ooids and extensive marine cements. Anisian margins, in contrast, are boundstone with a diverse skeletal component. The shift in platform architecture from ramp to steep, high-relief, flat-topped profiles is decoupled from carbonate compositions having occurred in the Olenekian prior to the onset of basin oxygenation and biotic stabilisation of the margins. A basin-wide synchronous shift from ramp to high-relief platforms points to a combination of high subsidence rate and basin starvation coupled with high rates of abiotic and microbial carbonate accumulation and marine cement stabilisation of oolitic margins as the primary causes for margin up-building. High sea water carbonate saturation resulting from a lack of skeletal sinks for precipitation, and basin anoxia promoting an expanded depth of carbonate supersaturation, probably contributed to marine cement stabilisation of margins that stimulated the shift from ramp to high-relief platform architecture

How do people with diabetes describe their experiences in primary care? Evidence from 85,760 patients with self-reported diabetes from the English General Practice Patient Survey.

OBJECTIVE: Developing primary care is an important current health policy goal in the U.S. and England. Information on patients' experience can help to improve the care of people with diabetes. We describe the experiences of people with diabetes in primary care and examine how these experiences vary with increasing comorbidity. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Using data from 906,578 responders to the 2012 General Practice Patient Survey (England), including 85,760 with self-reported diabetes, we used logistic regressions controlling for age, sex, ethnicity, and socioeconomic status to analyze patient experience using seven items covering three domains of primary care: access, continuity, and communication. RESULTS: People with diabetes were significantly more likely to report better experience on six out of seven primary care items than people without diabetes after adjusting for age, sex, ethnicity, and socioeconomic status (adjusted differences 0.88-3.20%; odds ratios [ORs] 1.07-1.18; P < 0.001). Those with diabetes and additional comorbid long-term conditions were more likely to report worse experiences, particularly for access to primary care appointments (patients with diabetes alone compared with patients without diabetes: OR 1.22 [95% CI 1.17-1.28] and patients with diabetes plus three or more conditions compared with patients without diabetes: OR 0.87 [95% CI 0.83-0.91]). CONCLUSIONS: People with diabetes in England report primary care experiences that are at least as good as those without diabetes for most domains of care. However, improvements in primary care are needed for diabetes patients with comorbid long-term conditions, including better access to appointments and improved communication.Diabetes UKThis is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from the American Diabetes Association via http://dx.doi.org/10.2337/dc14-109

Comparative size evolution of marine clades from the Late Permian through Middle Triassic

Abstract.-The small size of Early Triassic marine organisms has important implications for the ecological and environmental pressures operating during and after the end-Permian mass extinction. However, this &quot;Lilliput Effect&quot; has only been documented quantitatively in a few invertebrate clades. Moreover, the discovery of Early Triassic gastropod specimens larger than any previously known has called the extent and duration of the Early Triassic size reduction into question. Here, we document and compare Permian-Triassic body size trends globally in eight marine clades (gastropods, bivalves, calcitic and phosphatic brachiopods, ammonoids, ostracods, conodonts, and foraminiferans). Our database contains maximum size measurements for 11,224 specimens and 2,743 species spanning the Late Permian through the Middle to Late Triassic. The Permian/Triassic boundary (PTB) shows more size reduction among species than any other interval. For most higher taxa, maximum and median size among species decreased dramatically from the latest Permian (Changhsingian) to the earliest Triassic (Induan), and then increased during Olenekian (late Early Triassic) and Anisian (early Middle Triassic) time. During the Induan, the only higher taxon much larger than its long-term mean size was the ammonoids; they increased significantly in median size across the PTB, a response perhaps related to their comparatively rapid diversity recovery after the end-Permian extinction. The loss of large species in multiple clades across the PTB resulted from both selective extinction of larger species and evolution of surviving lineages toward smaller sizes. The within-lineage component of size decrease suggests that only part of the size decrease can be related to the end-Permian kill mechanism; in addition, Early Triassic environmental conditions or ecological pressures must have continued to favor small body size as well. After the end-Permian extinction, size decrease occurred across ecologically and physiologically disparate clades, but this size reduction was limited to the first part of the Early Triassic (Induan). Nektonic habitat or physiological buffering capacity may explain the contrast of Early Triassic size increase and diversification in ammonoids versus size reduction and slow recovery in benthic clades