Regime shift of the South China Sea SST in the late 1990s

Decadal variability of the South China Sea (SCS) sea surface temperature (SST) during 1982–2014 is investigated using observations and ocean reanalysis datasets. The SCS SST shows an abrupt transition from a cold-to-warm regime in the late 1990s. Based on the long-term SST variability two epochs are defined, 1982–1996 and 2000–2014 as cold and warm regimes respectively, spanning on either side of the 1997–1999 SCS warming. Despite the occurrence of strong El Nino induced warming events, the SST anomalies tend to be negative in the cold regime. Conversely during the warm regime, the positive SST anomalies have dominated over the La Nina driven cooling events. The cold (warm) SST regime is marked by net heat gain (loss) by the SCS. The long-term variations of net surface heat flux are mainly driven by the latent heat flux anomalies while the short wave flux plays a secondary role. Low-frequency variability of the South China Sea throughflow (SCSTF) appears to be closely related to the SCS SST regime shift. The SCSTF shows reversing trends during the cold and warm epochs. The weakened SCSTF in the warm regime has promoted the SCS warming by limiting the outward flow of warm water from the SCS. Meanwhile, enhanced SCSTF during the cold regime acts as a cooling mechanism and lead to persistent negative SST anomalies. The change in trend of the SCSTF and SST regime shift coincides with the switching of pacific decadal oscillation from a warm to cold phase in the late 1990s.Singapore. National Research Foundation (Singapore MIT Alliance for Research and Technology’s Centre for Environmental Sensing and Modeling interdisciplinary research program

The Various Components of the Circulation in the Singapore Strait Region: Tidal, Wind and Eddy-driven Circulations and Their Relative Importance

To obtain a better understanding of environment-related physical oceanography in Singapore Strait Region, numerical experiments are implemented to study the circulation in SSR. The three important components, tidal, wind and eddy-driven circulations are identified. It is shown that the tidal circulation is dominant in the region. Even though the wind and eddy circulations are relatively small, they may have significant effect on the local circulation and material transport.Singapore-MIT Alliance. Center for Environmental Sensing and MonitoringSingapore. National Research Foundatio

Storm surges in the Singapore Strait due to winds in the South China Sea

Among the semi-enclosed basins of the world ocean, the South China Sea (SCS) is unique in its configuration as it lies under the main southwest-northeast pathway of the seasonal monsoons. The northeast (NE) monsoon (November–February) and southwest (SW) monsoon (June–August) dominate the large-scale sea level dynamics of the SCS. Sunda Shelf at the southwest part of SCS tends to amplify Sea Level Anomalies (SLAs) generated by winds over the sea. The entire region, bounded by Gulf of Thailand on the north, Karimata Strait on the south, east cost of Peninsular Malaysia on the west, and break of Sunda Shelf on the east, could experience positive or negative SLAs depending on the wind direction and speed. Strong sea level surges during NE monsoon, if coincide with spring tide, usually lead to coastal floods in the region. To understand the phenomena, we analyzed the wind-driven sea level anomalies focusing on Singapore Strait (SS), laying at the most southwest point of the region. An analysis of Tanjong Pagar tide gauge data in the SS, as well as satellite altimetry and reanalyzed wind in the region, reveals that the wind over central part of SCS is arguably the most important factor determining the observed variability of SLAs at hourly to monthly scales. Climatological SLAs in SS are found to be positive, and of the order of 30 cm during NE monsoon, but negative, and of the order of 20 cm during SW monsoon. The largest anomalies are associated with intensified winds during NE monsoon, with historical highs exceeding 50 cm. At the hourly and daily time-scales, SLA magnitude is correlated with the NE wind speed over central part of SCS with an average time lag of 36–42 h. An exact solution is derived by approximating the elongated SCS shape with one-dimensional two-step channel. The solution is utilized to derive simple model connecting SLAs in SS with the wind speeds over central part of SCS. Due to delay of sea level anomaly in SS with respect to the remote source at SCS, the simplified solutions could be used for storm surge forecast, with a lead time exceeding 1 day.Singapore. National Research Foundation (Singapore MIT Alliance for Research and Technology)Singapore-MIT Alliance for Research and Technology. Center for Environmental Sensing and Modelin

Dynamical and thermodynamical analysis of the South China Sea winter cold tongue

Spatial distribution of the South China Sea (SCS) surface temperature shows strong cold anomalies over the Sunda Shelf during the boreal winter season. The band of low sea surface temperature (SST) region located south/southeast of Vietnam is called as the winter cold tongue (CT) in the SCS. Using observational and re-analysis datasets a comprehensive investigation of the dynamical and thermodynamical processes associated with the evolution of SCS CT is performed in this study. The role and relative importance of wind-driven ocean transports, air–sea heat fluxes and oceanic processes are explored. The north-south Sverdrup transport demonstrates strong southward transport during the northeast monsoon period aiding the SST cooling by bringing relatively cold water from the north. The zonal and meridional Ekman transports exhibit relatively weak westward and northward transports to the CT region during this period. The study suggests that wind-driven ocean transports have a significant role in regulating the shape and spatial extent of the CT. The heat budget analysis revealed that net surface heat flux decrease during the northeast monsoon acts as the primary cooling mechanism responsible for the development of the SCS CT, while the horizontal advection of cold water by the western boundary current along the coast of Vietnam plays a secondary role. The wintertime SST anomalies over the CT region are significantly linked to the Nino3 index. Most of the warming/cooling events in the SST anomalies coincide with the El Nino/La Nina phenomena in the Pacific Ocean.Singapore-MIT Alliance for Research and Technology. Center for Environmental Sensing and Modelin

An improved empirical dynamic control system model of global mean sea level rise and surface temperature change

10.1007/s00704-017-2039-3Theoretical and Applied Climatology1321-Feb375-38

Reconstruction of gappy mean sea level data

1316-1321Missing data is a common problem in sea level records, and yet gappy records may hinder estimates of sea level trend and variability. Sea level may be affected by various scale phenomena, ranging from global climate change to interannual sea level pattern caused by coupled ocean-atmosphere oscillations, as well as by many other regional phenomena. It could be expected that such complexity make sea level analysis more difficult; however, if relationships between the above phenomena and sea level values are established for continuous parts of the record, they can be used for reconstruction of the gappy parts. In this study, we derive simple and robust method of reconstruction of the gappy data in the Singapore Strait using established relationships of sea level on the El Ni<span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family: " times="" new="" roman";mso-fareast-font-family:"times="" roman";mso-bidi-font-family:="" mangal;mso-ansi-language:en-gb;mso-fareast-language:en-us;mso-bidi-language:="" hi"="" lang="EN-GB">ño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Asian monsoon. The reconstructed mean sea level is verified against observations, and allows for more accurate estimation of sea level trend and variability in the Singapore Strait.</span

Global mean sea level rise during the recent warming hiatus from satellite-based data

10.1080/2150704X.2018.1437291Remote Sensing Letters95497-50

Tsunami forecasting using proper orthogonal decomposition method

10.1029/2007JC004583Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans1136