Economic Impacts of Ageing: An Interindustry Approach

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to quantify the impact of the evolution of consumption patterns associated with ageing on the relative importance of industries in Portugal. Design/Methodology/Approach - This paper uses data from the Family Spending Survey to disaggregate the Household column of the Portuguese Input-Output Table in different age groups, projecting their consumption, using the latest demographic projections made by Statistics Portugal (INE). Findings - The study identifies the industries that are likely to be stimulated by the ageing of the Portuguese populations, as well as the industries that will most likely become disadvantaged by the process. Social implications - The task of identification of growing and declining industries due to ageing is important to help the design of employment, environmental, and social policies. Original/Value - The contemporary demographic trends in western societies have added to the importance of studying the economic and social consequences of ageing. Previously, the main issues have been the labour market effects, the sustainability of social security systems, and long-term care. In this paper, we address a different research topic, quantifying the sectoral impact of the evolution of consumption patterns associated with ageing.Ageing; Input-output; Consumption behaviour.

The interdealer market and the central bank intervention

This paper studies the consequences of having either an interventionist or a non-interventionist central bank in the foreign exchange market, in a market microstructure framework. Although a simple one-period model is used, it allows the characterization of the effect of the central bank intervention on the behaviour of dealers. The model also identifies the conditions for the dealer that acts as the counterpart of the central bank to be better or worse than the other dealers. The price is expected to be more informative with an interventionist central bank

Grandparents in multigenerational households

This study provides a profile of the households with coresident grandparents, using the European Community Household Panel. It identifies rising rates of coresidence with grandparents in Portugal between 1994 and 2001, and explores the nature of such trend, using an age-period-cohort approach. Households with grandparents became economically worse than the general population, with skipped-generation households in the worst situation. Multigenerational households may be formed in a particular generation's interest. Although no formation is directly available, indicators suggest that it is the needs of the younger generations that account for most coresidence situations. One possible benefit of this type of coresidence is the provision of caring services. Very significant proportions of coresident grandparents take care of children, especially small children. Although the proportion of coresident grandparents is the highest in the North region, it is more frequent in the Lisbon (capital) region for these grandparents to take care of children. Skipped generation households are also more concentrated in the Lisbon region

Demographics and the portuguese economic growth

Portugal has suffered an impressive decline in fertility (from 3.2 children per woman in 1960, to 1.2 in 2014), along with an increase in longevity (an almost 15 years increase in life expectancy between 1960 and 2013). This has produced an aged population, with a large old age dependency ratio: Eurostat estimates that there were 30.3 people aged 65+ per 100 people aged 15-64 in 2014. Despite the decreasing numbers of young dependents,a rising overall dependency ratio has existed since the beginning of this century. Simultaneously, both gross domestic product (GDP) and GDP per capita growth rates have been low, or even negative during the 2000’s. Naturally, there are many reasons for this, but what is the influence of demography on economic growth? Should we expect the ageing of population to be playing a positive or a negative role? Can we blame it for at least a small proportion of our economic woes? During the 19th and 20th Centuries, there were opposing views about the impact of demography on economic growth. The existence of diminishing returns to labour would imply that an ever-increasing number of workers would not be accompanied by a growth rate of output at the same pace, therefore leading to decreasing output per capita. Two authors that fit in with this line of thought are Malthus and Ehrlich. Another argument that defends that population growth is adverse to economic growth can be found in the growth model of Solow, where a high population growth tends to decrease capital per worker (capital dilution), thus reducing economic growth. On the other hand, Keynes and Alvin Hansen defended that population growth is an important source of economic progress, creating growing demand and investment incentives. A shrinking population produces smaller incentives for investment and the economy would therefore stagnate – which is known as secular stagnation. This type of argument, which links population size and growth to economies of scale, innovation and technological progress was common amongst other authors (Simon 1977 [as cited in Boulier 1979] and Kremer 1993, for example). Empirical studies (Kuznets 1967, Kelley 1988) had trouble finding robust evidence to support any of these positions and subsequent research settled on a population neutralism (Bloom and Canning 2006) that considered that population growth cannot explain the differences in growth rates of different countries. However, when not only total population growth was considered, but also its age structure, the importance of demographics started to show (Lindh and Malmberg 1999, Prskawetz et al. 2007). It is not so much the size of the population that matters, but its age structure. There are three main ways that population ageing influences economic growth: labour supply, savings and investment, and productivit

Need, unmet need, and shortage in the long-term care market

It is easy to agree that the provision of LTC services for the older population should not be entirely left to the market, because care is a social right, and the market alone would improperly exclude too many people. Recognising that LTC is a human right, governments should intervene and guarantee the protection of those in need. In a world of unlimited resources, only unmet needs of LTC should be a reason for concern. However, because adequate care services are costly and different types of fundamental needs are competing for a limited public budget, some kind of limitation of the public provision of LTC is unavoidable. If public funding is provided in such a way that people pay for the LTC services that they can afford, and the government pays the rest, then there will be no unmet need and no shortage of LTC services. The difficulties in the implementation of this solution include the fact that paying for it could be beyond public budget possibilities on one hand, and on the other hand, that it is not straightforward to identify what each individual can afford. Therefore, in the real world, public funding - which lowers the price that people actually have to pay for care services, in comparison to the free market price - creates an excess demand for these services. This shortage would not be important if the excess demand in the subsidised market was absorbed by the private commercial providers. However, what is the real cause for concern is unmet need. The objective of this study is to understand the extent of the unmet need for care, the need for more formal care, and the existence of a shortage in the long-term care market, in Portugal, whilst conveniently differentiating these concepts.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

The interaction of private intergenerational transfers types

The rapid ageing of the population, particularly in the developed world, accentuates the importance of both the family and of private intergenerational transfers, whether this be due to the longer periods of coexistence resulting from longer life expectancy or the threat posed to the very sustainability of the welfare state. While the magnitude of intergenerational transfers is well documented, and the motives underlying them have received broad attention, we focus on a much less studied topic: the way the different forms of private transfers – time, money and space - interact with each other. In order to understand the complete effects of decisions, the costs and benefits to donors and recipients of transfers, it is crucial to take into account the full set of options for family transfers. We survey the literature to ascertain current knowledge on the extent to which a) the provision of one form of intergenerational family transfer is related to the provision of another form by the same person; b) the modes adopted by different generations are interrelated. We then put forward suggestions for future research and conceptual refinement

The characteristics and regional distribution of older workers in Portugal

Population ageing is a common trend in most developed countries with many important economic, social and political consequences. In Portugal, this trend has been particularly strong. The ageing index was 34% in 1970, it is about 129% in 2011, according to the provisory results of the last Census and most recent demographic projections, is expected to be over 240% in 2030. One of the main issues associated with ageing is its effect on the composition of the labour force. The main purpose of this paper is to study the changes in the age structure of the Portuguese labour force between 1989 and 2009. First of all, the size and relative weight of older workers are quantified, both as a group (people with more than 54 years old), by age sub-groups (55-59; 60-64; 65 +) and gender. Then, particular attention is given to the regional distribution of these workers, both at the Nuts II (7 regions) and Nuts III (30 regions) levels. The sectoral distribution is also measured, at national and regional levels. Finally, a comparative analysis is made between younger and olderer workers, considering the education levels, establishments’ size, labour compensation and part-time versus full time work regime. The main data used are Quadros de Pessoal, from Ministry of Solidarity and Social Security covering people working in the private business sector (around 3,3 million workers, in 2009) and excluding liberal professionals

Exposure to airborne ultrafine particles from cooking in portuguese homes

Cooking was found to be a main source of submicrometer and ultrafine aerosols from gas combustion in stoves. Therefore, this study consisted of the determination of the alveolar deposited surface area due to aerosols resulting from common domestic cooking activities (boiling fish, vegetables, or pasta, and frying hamburgers and eggs). The concentration of ultrafine particles during the cooking events significantly increased from a baseline of 42.7 mu m(2)/cm(3) (increased to 72.9 mu m(2)/cm(3) due to gas burning) to a maximum of 890.3 mu m(2)/cm(3) measured during fish boiling in water, and a maximum of 4500 mu m(2)/cm(3) during meat frying. This clearly shows that a domestic activity such as cooking can lead to exposures as high as those of occupational exposure activities

Assessment of exposure to airborne ultrafine particles in the urban environment of Lisbon, Portugal

The aim of this study was the assessment of exposure to ultrafine in the urban environment of Lisbon, Portugal, due to automobile traffic, and consisted of the determination of deposited alveolar surface area in an avenue leading to the town center during late spring. This study revealed differentiated patterns for weekdays and weekends, which could be related with the fluxes of automobile traffic. During a typical week, ultrafine particles alveolar deposited surface area varied between 35.0 and 89.2 μm2/cm3, which is comparable with levels reported for other towns such in Germany and the United States. These measurements were also complemented by measuring the electrical mobility diameter (varying from 18.3 to 128.3 nm) and number of particles that showed higher values than those previously reported for Madrid and Brisbane. Also, electron microscopy showed that the collected particles were composed of carbonaceous agglomerates, typical of particles emitted by the exhaustion of diesel vehicles. Implications: The approach of this study considers the measurement of surface deposited alveolar area of particles in the outdoor urban environment of Lisbon, Portugal. This type of measurements has not been done so far. Only particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters 10 (PM10) μm have been measured in outdoor environments and the levels found cannot be found responsible for all the observed health effects. Therefore, the exposure to nano- and ultrafine particles has not been assessed systematically, and several authors consider this as a real knowledge gap and claim for data such as these that will allow for deriving better and more comprehensive epidemiologic studies. Nanoparticle surface area monitor (NSAM) equipments are recent ones and their use has been limited to indoor atmospheres. However, as this study shows, NSAM is a very powerful tool for outdoor environments also. As most lung diseases are, in fact, related to deposition of the alveolar region of the lung, the metric used in this study is the ideal one

Ciliocytophthoria in cervical cytology

The Ciliocytophthoria occurs in the glandular epithelium/cylindrical ciliated cells, which are found in the respiratory and gynaecological systems. Although this phenomenon is considered rare in both systems, it is more unusual in the gynaecological system. Of the 5781 cases analysed at the centre in 2006, only one case was diagnosed as Ciliocytophthoria. In 1975, Kobold-Wolterbeek and Beyer-Boon observed the cervical smears of 18 000 women during a period of a year and a half, during which time a total of 32 cases of Ciliocytophthoria were found. This phenomenon consists of the separation of the cylindrical cells resulting in the formation of a non-nucleus portion – terminal plate with cilia – and a nucleus portion with granular cytoplasm containing eosinophilia inclusions. The relationship between Ciliocytophthoria and any disease or tumour in the female genital tract is unknown.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio