Industry views on water resources planning methods – prospects for change in England and Wales

This paper describes a qualitative study of practitioner perspectives on regulated water resources planning practice in England and Wales. The study focuses on strengths and weaknesses of existing practice and the case for change towards a risk-based approach informed by stochastic modelling assessments. In-depth, structured interviews were conducted to capture the views of planners, regulators and consultants closely involved in the planning process. We found broad agreement that the existing water availability assessment methods are fallible; they lack transparency, are often highly subjective and may fail to adequately expose problems of resilience. While most practitioners believe these issues warrant a more detailed examination of risk in the planning process, few believe there is a strong case for a fundamental shift towards risk-based planning informed by stochastic modelling assessments. The study identifies perceived business risks associated with change and exposes widespread scepticism of stochastic methods

Public perceptions of recycled water: a survey of visitors to the London 2012 Olympic Park

The Old Ford Water Recycling Plant, operated by Thames Water, was used to supply non-potable recycled blackwater to some of the venues at the London 2012 Games. In an effort to learn from this experience, Thames Water commissioned a survey of visitors to the Olympic Park during the Games to explore public responses to the water recycling project. Results show a very high level of support for using non-potable recycled blackwater, both in public venues and in homes. Such findings may indicate a growing receptivity towards this technology, and show that Thames Water (and other private water companies) are well placed to encourage and even lead public discussion around the role of water reuse in the future of urban water supplies

Strategies for pricing publicly provided health services

The authors examine how governments finance and allocate public spending, with an eye to developing strategies for pricing publicly provided health services. They also examine the implications of current policy and the possibility for rationalizing competing government priorities. Because governments face budget constraints and cannot fully subsidize all programs and activities, the authors argue the following: a) Public spending on health can (1) improve health outcomes, (2) promote nonhealth aspects of well-being (for example, reducing individuals'risk of economic losses from random health crises), and (3) finance redistribution to the poor. Optimal subsidy and fee policy will depend on how much relative weight government places on those competing objectives. Subsidies need to be reallocated toward the poor and toward public health sector can financed by increasing public subsidies. b) Prices for curative services (user fee) have two distinct roles. They can raise revenue, freeing public resources to be reallocated to public health activities and for limited cofinancing to improve the quality of curative care. More important, they can improve efficiency in the use of public facilities and the health care system as a whole. But those gains must be weighed against evidence that increased fees can compromise public health's three main goals. The literature has focused largely on how raising revenue affects the poor, but the more important effect is likely to be the guidance of resources. User fees are important in cofinancing health care but shouldn't be the primary means of finance. c) Revenue generated from user fees is sometimes used to improve the quality of, and access to, curative medical care. There is some evidence that people are willing to pay some of the cost of improving health care (especially for drugs), but the wealthy are willing to pay a lot more than the poor. If governments charge the average"willingness to pay,"the wealthy will use the services more, the poor, less. d) Prepayment social insurance plans hold promise, but there is evidence that they may introduce inefficient inflation of medical care costs that lower- and middle- income countries cannot afford.Public Sector Economics&Finance,Health Systems Development&Reform,Environmental Economics&Policies,Payment Systems&Infrastructure,Health Economics&Finance,Environmental Economics&Policies,Public Sector Economics&Finance,Health Systems Development&Reform,Health Economics&Finance,Urban Economics

SPATIAL AND SUPPLY/DEMAND AGGLOMERATION ECONOMIES: AN EVALUATION OF STATE-AND-INDUSTRY-LINKAGES IN THE U.S. FOOD SYSTEM

In this paper we postulate, measure, and evaluate the importance of cost-impacts from spatial and industrial spillovers for analysis of economic performance. To accomplish this, we incorporate measures of "activity levels" of related states and industries in a cost function model, and estimate their associated thick market and agglomeration effects in terms of shadow values and elasticities. We focus on the food processing sector, the proximity of own-industry activity in neighboring states, and the supply- and demand- side "drivers", associated with urbanization and localization economies (represented by the GSP and agricultural intensity in the own and neighboring states). We find significant cost-savings benefits to a states food processing sector of being close to other food manufacturing centers (high levels of food processing activity in neighboring states). We also find it beneficial to be in a state with high purchasing power (demand), and to have neighboring states that are agriculture-based (supply). However, it also seems costly to actually be located in a heavily agricultural or rural state, possibly due to diseconomies from "thin markets" associated with infrastructure support and labor markets.Productivity Analysis,

Increased Adenine Nucleotide Degradation in Skeletal Muscle Atrophy

Adenine nucleotides (AdNs: ATP, ADP, AMP) are essential biological compounds that facilitate many necessary cellular processes by providing chemical energy, mediating intracellular signaling, and regulating protein metabolism and solubilization. A dramatic reduction in total AdNs is observed in atrophic skeletal muscle across numerous disease states and conditions, such as cancer, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, heart failure, COPD, sepsis, muscular dystrophy, denervation, disuse, and sarcopenia. The reduced AdNs in atrophic skeletal muscle are accompanied by increased expression/activities of AdN degrading enzymes and the accumulation of degradation products (IMP, hypoxanthine, xanthine, uric acid), suggesting that the lower AdN content is largely the result of increased nucleotide degradation. Furthermore, this characteristic decrease of AdNs suggests that increased nucleotide degradation contributes to the general pathophysiology of skeletal muscle atrophy. In view of the numerous energetic, and non-energetic, roles of AdNs in skeletal muscle, investigations into the physiological consequences of AdN degradation may provide valuable insight into the mechanisms of muscle atrophy

Managing diversity : the strategic planning of long term technology infrastructure

Current methods of addressing uncertainty in the field of technology planning and management rely heavily on the use of forecasting and scenario generation. However, current developments in the planning and systems literature suggest that concepts of diversity and resilience provide an alternative framework for addressing uncertainty. Consequently, this thesis adopts an interdisciplinary approach to investigate three specific aspects of the technology assessment process; the limits to information from quantitative modelling, technological and managerial strategies for combating uncertainty, and the roles of models and modellers in these strategies. As a preface to the study, the nature of resilience in the context of technology planning is reviewed and some propositions are made concerning the matching of planning tools with levels of management sovereignty. A series of simulation models developed as part of the research programme provide some useful insights into the role of diversity in promoting both reduced costs and greater cost stability over the long term. However, they also expose a number of methodological limitations to modelling diversity in technological systems. These limitations are associated with both the representation of diversity and the exposure of multiple solutions. The second strand of investigation shows that the flexibility promoted by managers active in a turbulent operating environment, is focused on organisational and human centred attributes of the firm's activities. The final research activity shows that professional modellers in the U. K. appear to be aware of the limitations of the tools and techniques they utilise and perceive their role as being one of providing a rational / scientific approach to problem solving. Both policy and methodology related conclusions are drawn from the three research activities. Integration of the various strands of the research results emphasises the importance of matching the strategic and decision issue contexts of a policy issue to the analysis and policy tools used. Several recommendations for further research are also provided

Experimental investigation of planar strained methane-air and ethylene-air flames

The extinction of planar strained methane-air flames in the stagnation-point flow is studied. A thermal analysis has been conducted in order to build a new copper stagnation plate which can be heated up to 1000K, and allows investigation of downstream heat loss as extinction driving mechanism. Since premixed stagnation flames are mostly sensitive to the composition of the mixture, axial velocity and CH radical profiles are simultaneously measured for different equivalence ratios, using respectively Particle Streak Velocimetry (PSV) and Planar Laser Induced Fluorescence (PLIF). These are compared to simulations using CANTERA stagnation flow code with a multicomponent molecular transport model, with the following chemical kinetics mechanisms: GRI-MECH 3.0, the C3-Davis, San-Diego 200308 and San-Diego 200503 mechanisms. In methane-air flames, simulations accurately predict the velocity and CH profiles from Phi=0.8 to Phi=1.2, but the flame speed turns out to be overpredicted at Phi=0.7 by all mechanisms except the C3-Davis mechanism (see Bergthorson et al. 2005a). The experiment at Phi=1.3 would need to be reconducted. Also, measured relative concentrations of CH are compared to numerical predictions using each of the four mechanisms cited above. Composition variations impact on ethylene-air flames was also investigated due to a peculiar jump in the overprediction of flame velocities from Phi=1.6 to Phi=1.8 (Bergthorson 2005). This peculiar feature was found to be repeatable, but the cause remains unclear. Methane-air laminar flame speeds Su0 were computed using CANTERA freely propagating flame code for the following chemical kinetics mechanisms: GRI-MECH 3.0, the C3-Davis mechanism, the San Diego 200308, 200503, and 200506 mechanisms, for variable pressures (1,2,5,10,20 atm) and equivalence ratios (0.6-1.4). Even for methane, whose chemistry is one of the best understood, the scatter between the different mechanisms is significant. Both composition and pressure were found to affect Su0 substantially, although composition variations seem to excite the differences in the predictions among the different mechanisms the most

The impact of regulation, ownership and business culture on managing corporate risk within the water industry

Although the specifics of water utility ownership, regulation and management culture have been explored in terms of their impact on economic and customer value, there has been little meaningful engagement with their influence on the risk environment and risk management. Using a literature review as the primary source of information, this paper maps the existing knowledge base onto two critical questions: what are the particular features of regulation, ownership and management culture which influence the risk dynamic, and what are the implications of these relationships in the context of ambitions for resilient organizations? In addressing these queries, the paper considers the mindful choices and adjustments a utility must make to its risk management strategy to manage strategic tensions between efficiency, risk and resilience. The conclusions note a gap in understanding of the drivers required for a paradigm shift within the water sector from a re-active to a pro-active risk management culture. A proposed model of the tensions between reactive risk management and pro-active, adaptive risk management provides a compelling case for measured risk management approaches which are informed by an appreciation of regulation, ownership and business culture. Such approaches will support water authorities in meeting corporate aspirations to become "high reliability" services while retaining the capacity to out-perform financial and service level targets

TRADE POLICY, FOOD PRICE VARIABILITY, AND THE VULNERABILITY OF LOW-INCOME HOUSEHOLDS

We utilize a global trade model to generate distributions of commodity and factor prices based on observed uncertainty in rice production. This is done for three trade policy regimes. We then assess their impact on domestic price variability and the likelihood of marginal households falling into poverty in four countries.Food Security and Poverty, International Relations/Trade,

Observations of the X-ray Nova GRO~J0422+32: II: Optical Spectra Approaching Quiescence

We present results obtained from a series of 5~\AA\ resolution spectra of the X-ray Nova GRO~J0422+32 obtained in 1993~October, when the system was approximately 2 magnitudes above quiescence, with ${\rm R \sim 19}$. The data were obtained in an effort to measure the orbital radial velocity curve of the secondary, but detection of the narrow photospheric absorption lines needed to do this proved elusive. Instead we found wide absorption bands reminiscent of M~star photospheric features. The parameters determined by fitting accretion disk line profiles (Smak profiles) to the H$\alpha$ line are similar to those found in several strong black-hole candidates. Measurements of the velocity of the H$\alpha$ line are consistent with an orbital period of 5.1~hours and a velocity semi-amplitude of the primary of $34 \pm 6$~\kms. These measurements, when combined with measurements of the velocity semi-amplitude of the secondary made by others, indicate that the mass ratio $q \sim 0.09$. If the secondary follows the empirical mass-radius relation found for CVs, the low $q$ implies a primary mass of $M_x \sim 5.6$\mo, and a rather low (face-on) inclination. The H$\alpha$ EW is found to be modulated on the orbital period with a phasing that implies a partial eclipse of the disk by the secondary, but simultaneous R~band photometry shows no evidence for such an eclipse.Comment: Accepted for ApJ, plain latex, 5 figures available as self-extracting uuendoced, compressed, tarfiles (from uufiles