Comparative analysis of the seismic hazard of Central China

Seismic hazard assessment is globally recognised as a tool in identifying levels of earthquake ground shaking within an area. However, methodologies for seismic hazard calculation are wide ranging and produce variations in results and maps. As a case study seismic hazard and results from Gumbel’s method of extremes are determined for the area of greatest intraplate seismicity in China covering the provinces of Gansu, Sichuan and Yunnan. This area is termed the North-South Seismic Zone. Devastating earthquakes in this zone include the 8.4 MS 1920 Haiyuan earthquake causing over 220,000 deaths and the 1996 Lijiang earthquake. Most recently the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake caused over 69,000 deaths with more than 18,000 people missing. These results and seismic hazard maps are compared with the publicly available maps of GSHAP and the national seismic hazard map of China at the level of 10% probability of exceedance in a 50 year period. The distributions of high and low hazard areas are similar and adjacent to the major thrust and strike-slip faults dominating in this area. However, results from the Gumbel method of extremes suggest that the hazard levels within certain areas are slightly different compared to the other two models. This is primarily because the Gumbel methodology is based on determining hazard from earthquakes that have already taken place whereas the other two models determine maximum hazard levels in areas which may exhibit no previous strong hazard. Additionally the Chinese national hazard map does not indicate levels of ground shaking intensity greater than IX in detail, whereas such zones are identified using the extreme value method. This work should be used to strengthen the seismic hazard analysis of this area of China

‘Future Bathroom’, What to make? Or How to Make? Challenges in meeting sustainable needs.

This paper is a case study that describes a design research programme, ‘the future bathroom’, undertaken by the authors which illuminates both challenges and solutions for inclusive and sustainable design. A co-design research methodology was adopted and engaged older users and community lay researchers to help overcome the barriers of developing a comprehensive understanding of the issues related to highly personal, private and intimate activities. We adopt the term co-design to describe an approach to design that encourages both user involvement and interdisciplinary design. Our challenge has been to provide an environment where an exchange of ideas between stakeholders could take place and to foster what Manzini (1) has referred to as a ‘creative community’. From the project emerged both insight and understanding of age related disability and bathroom use and potential design solutions to support these needs. Adopting an inclusive approach to design research we have developed flexible, durable and sustainable solutions that meet the diverse and changing needs of bathroom usage The paper discusses how sustainability in the context of inclusive design might need to consider more ‘what we should make’ rather than ‘how we should make’

Future bathroom: A study of user-centred design principles affecting usability, safety and satisfaction in bathrooms for people living with disabilities

Research and development work relating to assistive technology 2010-11 (Department of Health) Presented to Parliament pursuant to Section 22 of the Chronically Sick and Disabled Persons Act 197

Material Realism: A Systems Theory of International Politics

Traditionally power has played a dominant role in all realist theories of international politics and little if any room was left for actor agency. Systemic outcomes were a function of system structure. System structure was the result of the positioning of states in the system according to their power. Conflict resulted from system structure. Actor agency was not a relevant consideration because system structure was deterministic. This paper presents a new theorization of realism that it calls material realism. Material realism hypothesizes globalization as a second independent variable alongside power. A longitudinal network model using all conflict events since 1992 is constructed that hypothesizes globalization as acting to mitigate the effect of power and reduce the probability of conflict initiation. Because globalization is at root a system of resource allocation, material realism theorizes that as resources are more adequately allocated globally, scarcity is reduced. As scarcity is reduced, man (and states) fear less for their survival. When survival is not at risk the probability of conflict abates because the cost-to-benefit ratio swings decisively against conflict initiation. By using a longitudinal network model, actor agency is accounted for because conflict events are not assumed to be independent as is the case with more traditional models like logit or OLS regression. Additionally, the use of a longitudinal network model allows for the isolation of the impact of system structure versus actor behavior, thus thwarting charges of reductionism. By using a longitudinal network model to characterize the system of international politics, a true systems theory of international politics is presented. Previous attempts at presenting a systems theory of international politics fell short because they did not account for the impact of actor behavior on system behavior and vice-a-versa. Material realism represents a paradigm shift for realist thinkers because it opens the door for explicit consideration of the effect of actor agency and the undeniable effects of globalization on international political outcomes, especially conflict initiation. Ultimately the conclusion is reached that technology and innovation must continue to advance in order to achieve continuing reductions in conflict initiation over the long term

Keeping the Light Shining? The end of British Quakerism Revisited

This paper follows on from two earlier articles in Quaker Studies on the predicted end-point for the Religious Society of Friends in Britain and presents analyses of the membership data for individual General Meetings (GMs) within Britain Yearly Meeting which suggest that the picture is not as straightforward as initially presented in the earlier articles. Based on an analysis of membership numbers since 1899, some GMs are predicted to increase over the next 30 years, although most will apparently decline. The data are also analysed on a regional basis and three models of the changing membership are presented

An Occupational Analysis of the Society of Friends in Nineteenth-Century Scotland

This paper summarizes our knowledge of the occupational background of English Quakers as a preliminary to an analysis of the occupations of Scottish Quakers in the nineteenth century, based upon the primary sources of records of births, marriages and burials. The same increase in middle-class occupations, including the professions, is evident in Scotland, but the process of embourgeoisement seems to have been slower in Scotland, and by the end of the nineteenth- century merchants and retailers were the largest group in the Society there, rather than the professions. There is also evidence of regional variations in the occupations noted