STUDIES IN AGRICULTURAL TECHNOLOGY IN NINETEENTH- AND TWENTIETH-CENTURY ENGLAND

Four published papers and several parts of a book are presented herein, together with a previously unpublished short paper explaining the intellectual background against which they were written and summarising their findings on the development of agricultural teQmology in England in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. This outlines the contribution of economic and sociological the^pries to the study of technical change, but makes the point that historical studies, although clearly influenced by these theories, tend to use a multifactorial approach which avoids privileging any single explanation. Nevertheless, several themes arising in all of this material are identified, especially the gap between innovation and the adoption of technology, and the influence upon it of scientific, systemic, and socio-economic changes. Brassley (1995a) exaiftmes the criteria against which the success of agricultural science should be judged, and concludes that for most of the nineteenth century in Britain it was a failure. It identifies the establishment of the university departments of agriculture in the 1890s, and the Development Commission in 1910, as the main factors which reversed this trend, and, in an appendix, examines the impact of changing output prices upon the supply curve. In Brassley (1995b) the life of a single farmer, Primrose McConnell, is considered. In adoptiondiffusion theory terms, McConnell is a classic example of an innovator, and this paper reveals the various ways in which, as a writer and a practising farmer, he influenced the agricultural industry of the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. Brassley (1996) concentrates on a single example of technical change, in this case silage, and explains why its widespread adoption took about a hundred years. The principal conclusion is that silage, like many examples of agricultural technology, is not a single change but a complex system of interacting individual components, all of which need to be available or in place before widespread adoption can occur. The significance of this process is studied^in Brassley (2000a), which examines the relationship between technical change and output in the late nineteenth and twentieth centuries, and concludes that innovation was not necessarily as important as the adoption of pre-existing technology in accounting for output expansion. Brassley (2000b) is divided into three parts. The first introduces the concept of farming systems in late nineteenth century England and Wales and analyses the principal arable and pastoral systems of the period; the second examines individual aspects of farming technology, with the exception of farm buildings and machinery; and the third traces the development of agricultural science and education in England and Wales between 1850 and 1914. Clearly these three are inter-related, in that science and education had some impact on techniques, which, in turn, influenced farming systems, but one of the main themes to emerge from this study, as from the other papers in this collection, is the restricted rate of change and the gap between technical leaders and laggards.Seale-Hayne Faculty of Land, Food and Leisur

Hindcasting of nutrient loadings from its catchment on a highly valuable coastal lagoon: the example of the Fleet, Dorset, UK, 1866–2004

BACKGROUND: Nutrient loadings from its catchment upon The Fleet, a highly valuable coastal lagoon in Southern England, were hindcast for the period AD 1866–2004, using a catchment model, export coefficients, and historical data on land use changes, livestock numbers, and human population. Agriculture was the main nutrient source throughout, other inputs representing minor contributions. Permanent pasture was historically the main land use, with temporary grassland and cereals increasing during the mid-20th century. Sheep, the main 19th century livestock, were replaced by cattle during the 1930s. RESULTS: Total nitrogen loadings rose from ca 41 t yr-1 during the late 19th century to 49–54 t yr-1 for the mid-20th, increasing to 98 t yr-1 by 1986. Current values are ca 77 t yr-1. Total phosphorus loads increased from ca 0.75 t yr-1 for the late 19th century to ca 1.6 t yr-1 for the mid-20th, reached ca 2.2 t yr-1 in 1986, and are now ca 1.5 t yr-1. Loadings rose most rapidly between 1946 and 1988, owing to increased use of inorganic fertilisers, and rising sheep and cattle numbers. Livestock were the main nutrient source throughout, but inputs from inorganic fertilisers increased after 1946, peaking in 1986. Sewage treatment works and other sources contribute little nitrogen, but ca 35% of total phosphorus. Abbotsbury Swannery, an ancient Mute Swan community, provides ca 0.5% of total nitrogen, and ca 5% of total phosphorus inputs. CONCLUSION: The Fleet has been grossly overloaded with nitrogen since 1866, climaxing during the 1980s. Total phosphorus inputs lay below 'permissible' limits until the 1980s, exceeding them in inner, less tidal parts of the lagoon, during the 1940s. Loadings on Abbotsbury Bay exceeded 'permissible' limits by the 1860s, becoming 'dangerous' during the mid-20th century. Phosphorus stripping at point sources will not significantly reduce loadings to all parts of the lagoon. Installation of 5 m buffer strips throughout the catchment and shoreline will marginally affect nitrogen loadings, but will reduce phosphorus inputs to the West Fleet below 'permissible' limits. Only a combination of measures will significantly affect Abbotsbury Bay, where, without effluent diversion, loadings will remain beyond 'permissible'

The emergence of modern statistics in agricultural science : Analysis of variance, experimental design and the reshaping of research at Rothamsted Experimental Station, 1919–1933

During the twentieth century statistical methods have transformed research in the experimental and social sciences. Qualitative evidence has largely been replaced by quantitative results and the tools of statistical inference have helped foster a new ideal of objectivity in scientific knowledge. The paper will investigate this transformation by considering the genesis of analysis of variance and experimental design, statistical methods nowadays taught in every elementary course of statistics for the experimental and social sciences. These methods were developed by the mathematician and geneticist R. A. Fisher during the 1920s, while he was working at Rothamsted Experimental Station, where agricultural research was in turn reshaped by Fisher’s methods. Analysis of variance and experimental design required new practices and instruments in field and laboratory research, and imposed a redistribution of expertise among statisticians, experimental scientists and the farm staff. On the other hand the use of statistical methods in agricultural science called for a systematization of information management and made computing an activity integral to the experimental research done at Rothamsted, permanently integrating the statisticians’ tools and expertise into the station research programme. Fisher’s statistical methods did not remain confined within agricultural research and by the end of the 1950s they had come to stay in psychology, sociology, education, chemistry, medicine, engineering, economics, quality control, just to mention a few of the disciplines which adopted them