You get what you (don’t) pay for: The impact of volunteer labour and candidate spending at the 2010 British general election

The published version of this article is fully available from the publisher at the link below.Repeated evidence in Britain demonstrates the positive electoral payoffs from constituency campaigning. However, the impact of such campaigning varies depending upon the electoral context and the effectiveness of campaign management. Debate also exists in respect of the relative impact of traditional versus more modern campaign techniques, as well as between campaign techniques that incur cost and those that are carried out voluntarily. Such debates are of interest not only to academics and political parties, but also to regulators when considering whether to restrict campaign spending in the interests of electoral parity. This article uses candidate spending data and responses to an extensive survey of election agents at the British General Election of 2010 to assess the impact of both campaign expenditure and free, voluntary labour on electoral performance. It suggests that both have some independent impact, but that impact varies by party. The implications of these results are highly significant in both academic and regulatory terms—campaign expenditure can affect electoral outcomes but these effects are offset to some extent by voluntary efforts

Ron Johnston

Editorial Tribute

Enhancing spatial detection accuracy for syndromic surveillance with street level incidence data

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The Department of Defense Military Health System operates a syndromic surveillance system that monitors medical records at more than 450 non-combat Military Treatment Facilities (MTF) worldwide. The Electronic Surveillance System for Early Notification of Community-based Epidemics (ESSENCE) uses both temporal and spatial algorithms to detect disease outbreaks. This study focuses on spatial detection and attempts to improve the effectiveness of the ESSENCE implementation of the spatial scan statistic by increasing the spatial resolution of incidence data from zip codes to street address level.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Influenza-Like Illness (ILI) was used as a test syndrome to develop methods to improve the spatial accuracy of detected alerts. Simulated incident clusters of various sizes were superimposed on real ILI incidents from the 2008/2009 influenza season. Clusters were detected using the spatial scan statistic and their displacement from simulated loci was measured. Detected cluster size distributions were also evaluated for compliance with simulated cluster sizes.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Relative to the ESSENCE zip code based method, clusters detected using street level incidents were displaced on average 65% less for 2 and 5 mile radius clusters and 31% less for 10 mile radius clusters. Detected cluster size distributions for the street address method were quasi normal and sizes tended to slightly exceed simulated radii. ESSENCE methods yielded fragmented distributions and had high rates of zero radius and oversized clusters.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Spatial detection accuracy improved notably with regard to both location and size when incidents were geocoded to street addresses rather than zip code centroids. Since street address geocoding success rates were only 73.5%, zip codes were still used for more than one quarter of ILI cases. Thus, further advances in spatial detection accuracy are dependant on systematic improvements in the collection of individual address information.</p

Women candidates and councillors in Scottish local government, 1974-2012

While significant attention has been paid to the levels of representation of women in both the Westminster Parliament and the Scottish Parliament, much less considered has been given to the position within local government. This article addresses that deficit for Scotland. It shows that for twenty-five years following the reorganisation of local government in Scotland in 1974 there was a slow but relatively steady increase in the numbers of female candidates and councillors, although more recently this appears to have since plateaued somewhat, together with a similar increase in the number of women councillors taking up more senior roles in Scotland’s councils. The article analyses the representation of women in Scottish local government over the period from 1974 to 2012 against the backdrop of significant change in Scotland, including a further restructuring of local government and the introduction of the Single Transferable Vote for council elections, the creation of the Scottish Parliament, the rise of the SNP and the decline of the Conservative Party

A high-field adiabatic fast passage ultracold neutron spin flipper for the UCNA experiment

The UCNA collaboration is making a precision measurement of the β asymmetry (A) in free neutron decay using polarized ultracold neutrons (UCN). A critical component of this experiment is an adiabatic fast passage neutron spin flipper capable of efficient operation in ambient magnetic fields on the order of 1 T. The requirement that it operate in a high field necessitated the construction of a free neutron spin flipper based, for the first time, on a birdcage resonator. The design, construction, and initial testing of this spin flipper prior to its use in the first measurement of A with UCN during the 2007 run cycle of the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center's 800 MeV proton accelerator is detailed. These studies determined the flipping efficiency of the device, averaged over the UCN spectrum present at the location of the spin flipper, to be ϵ(overbar) = 0.9985(4)

Common polygenic risk for autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is associated with cognitive ability in the general population

Acknowledgements Generation Scotland has received core funding from the Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government Health Directorates CZD/16/6 and the Scottish Funding Council HR03006. We are grateful to all the families who took part, the general practitioners and the Scottish School of Primary Care for their help in recruiting them and the whole Generation Scotland team, which includes interviewers, computer and laboratory technicians, clerical workers, research scientists, volunteers, managers, receptionists, health-care assistants and nurses. We acknowledge with gratitude the financial support received for this work from the Dr Mortimer and Theresa Sackler Foundation. For the Lothian Birth Cohorts (LBC1921 and LBC1936), we thank Paul Redmond for database management assistance; Alan Gow, Martha Whiteman, Alison Pattie, Michelle Taylor, Janie Corley, Caroline Brett and Caroline Cameron for data collection and data entry; nurses and staff at the Wellcome Trust Clinical Research Facility, where blood extraction and genotyping was performed; staff at the Lothian Health Board; and the staff at the SCRE Centre, University of Glasgow. The research was supported by a program grant from Age UK (Disconnected Mind) and by grants from the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC). The work was undertaken by The University of Edinburgh Centre for Cognitive Ageing and Cognitive Epidemiology, part of the cross council Lifelong Health and Wellbeing Initiative (MR/K026992/1). Funding from the Medical Research Council (MRC) and BBSRC is gratefully acknowledged. DJM is an NRS Career Research Fellow funded by the CSO. BATS were funded by the Australian Research Council (A79600334, A79906588, A79801419, DP0212016, DP0664638, and DP1093900) and the National Health and Medical Research Council (389875) Australia. MKL is supported by a Perpetual Foundation Wilson Fellowship. SEM is supported by a Future Fellowship (FT110100548) from the Australian Research Council. GWM is supported by a National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC), Australia, Fellowship (619667). We thank the twins and siblings for their participation, Marlene Grace, Ann Eldridge and Natalie Garden for cognitive assessments, Kerrie McAloney, Daniel Park, David Smyth and Harry Beeby for research support, Anjali Henders and staff in the Molecular Epidemiology Laboratory for DNA sample processing and preparation and Scott Gordon for quality control and management of the genotypes. This work is supported by a Stragetic Award from the Wellcome Trust, reference 104036/Z/14/Z.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Search for the Neutron Decay n→\rightarrow X+γ\gamma where X is a dark matter particle

In a recent paper submitted to Physical Review Letters, Fornal and Grinstein have suggested that the discrepancy between two different methods of neutron lifetime measurements, the beam and bottle methods can be explained by a previously unobserved dark matter decay mode, n$\rightarrow$ X+$\gamma$ where X is a dark matter particle. We have performed a search for this decay mode over the allowed range of energies of the monoenergetic gamma ray for X to be a dark matter particle. We exclude the possibility of a sufficiently strong branch to explain the lifetime discrepancy with greater than 4 sigma confidence.Comment: 6 pages 3 figure

Measurement of the half-life of the T=12\frac{1}{2} mirror decay of 19^{19}Ne and its implication on physics beyond the standard model

The $\frac{1}{2}^+ \rightarrow \frac{1}{2}^+$ superallowed mixed mirror decay of $^{19}$Ne to $^{19}$F is excellently suited for high precision studies of the weak interaction. However, there is some disagreement on the value of the half-life. In a new measurement we have determined this quantity to be $T_{1/2}$ = $17.2832 \pm 0.0051_{(stat)}$ $\pm 0.0066_{(sys)}$ s, which differs from the previous world average by 3 standard deviations. The impact of this measurement on limits for physics beyond the standard model such as the presence of tensor currents is discussed.Comment: 5 pages, 3 figures, 1 tabl