The1997 Scottish referendum : an analysis of the Scottish referendum

Referendums are rare events in the United Kingdom. Only one UK-wide referendum has been held - on membership of the European Community (as it then was) in 1975 - and before 1997 there had been only three other significant referendums: in 1973, in Northern Ireland, on the constitutional position of the province, and in 1979, in Scotland and Wales, on proposals for devolution. Thus the scarcity of cases available for study in itself makes the 1997 referendum on a Scottish parliament worthy of close attention. In addition, however, the fact that Scottish voters were asked to vote on, not one, but two questions - whether or not they were in favour of a Scottish parliament and whether such a parliament should have tax-varying powers - made the Scottish referendum unique among the (admittedly few) referendums that have been held in Britain

Is All Campaigning Equally Positive? The Impact of District Level Campaigning on Voter Turnout at the 2010 British General Election

A significant comparative literature suggests that campaigning efforts by political parties impact positively, both in terms of mobilization and turnout. However, effects are not uniform. They may be affected by the electoral system used, the electoral circumstances and effectiveness of party management. Studies of district-level constituency campaigning in Britain have identified two important trends. First, that effective targeting is a core component of a successful district campaign strategy in terms of delivering electoral payoffs and that, over time, political parties have become better at targeting resources where they are needed most. While improvements in targeting have helped ensure that all three principal parties’ campaigns have tended to deliver electoral payoffs, a question has arisen as to whether increasingly ruthless partisan targeting by parties could have detrimental effects on overall levels of turnout. Second, they have shown how campaign techniques are continuously being modernised but that, despite these changes, just as in other democracies, more traditional labour-intensive campaigning tends to produce stronger electoral payoffs. This article therefore considers three questions in respect of the impact of district level campaigns on turnout: whether the combined campaign efforts of the three principal parties in Britain are associated with higher levels of turnout; whether the different campaigning styles of parties affect levels of turnout equally; and whether the campaigning efforts of different parties have differential effects on turnout and whether intense partisan targeting does indeed impact upon turnout overall. It shows that while campaigning boosts turnout, the impact varies by campaign technique and by party, as a function not only of targeting but also of electoral context

You get what you (don’t) pay for: The impact of volunteer labour and candidate spending at the 2010 British general election

The published version of this article is fully available from the publisher at the link below.Repeated evidence in Britain demonstrates the positive electoral payoffs from constituency campaigning. However, the impact of such campaigning varies depending upon the electoral context and the effectiveness of campaign management. Debate also exists in respect of the relative impact of traditional versus more modern campaign techniques, as well as between campaign techniques that incur cost and those that are carried out voluntarily. Such debates are of interest not only to academics and political parties, but also to regulators when considering whether to restrict campaign spending in the interests of electoral parity. This article uses candidate spending data and responses to an extensive survey of election agents at the British General Election of 2010 to assess the impact of both campaign expenditure and free, voluntary labour on electoral performance. It suggests that both have some independent impact, but that impact varies by party. The implications of these results are highly significant in both academic and regulatory terms—campaign expenditure can affect electoral outcomes but these effects are offset to some extent by voluntary efforts

“If You've Got Friends and Neighbours”: Constituency Voting Patterns for the UK Labour Party Leader in 2010

Most attention in British electoral studies has been paid to the pattern of voting for parties, with relatively little to that for individual candidates. In intra-party elections, however, candidates may perform better in some areas than others, illustrating V. O. Key's well-known “friends and neighbours” effect. This paper explores whether that was so at the election for the leader of the UK Labour party in 2010, expecting each of the five candidates to perform better in their own constituency and its environs and also with those constituency parties whose MPs supported their candidature. The results are in line with the expectations, especially for one of the candidates who ran an explicitly geographical campaign

Ron Johnston

Editorial Tribute

Enhancing spatial detection accuracy for syndromic surveillance with street level incidence data

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The Department of Defense Military Health System operates a syndromic surveillance system that monitors medical records at more than 450 non-combat Military Treatment Facilities (MTF) worldwide. The Electronic Surveillance System for Early Notification of Community-based Epidemics (ESSENCE) uses both temporal and spatial algorithms to detect disease outbreaks. This study focuses on spatial detection and attempts to improve the effectiveness of the ESSENCE implementation of the spatial scan statistic by increasing the spatial resolution of incidence data from zip codes to street address level.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Influenza-Like Illness (ILI) was used as a test syndrome to develop methods to improve the spatial accuracy of detected alerts. Simulated incident clusters of various sizes were superimposed on real ILI incidents from the 2008/2009 influenza season. Clusters were detected using the spatial scan statistic and their displacement from simulated loci was measured. Detected cluster size distributions were also evaluated for compliance with simulated cluster sizes.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Relative to the ESSENCE zip code based method, clusters detected using street level incidents were displaced on average 65% less for 2 and 5 mile radius clusters and 31% less for 10 mile radius clusters. Detected cluster size distributions for the street address method were quasi normal and sizes tended to slightly exceed simulated radii. ESSENCE methods yielded fragmented distributions and had high rates of zero radius and oversized clusters.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Spatial detection accuracy improved notably with regard to both location and size when incidents were geocoded to street addresses rather than zip code centroids. Since street address geocoding success rates were only 73.5%, zip codes were still used for more than one quarter of ILI cases. Thus, further advances in spatial detection accuracy are dependant on systematic improvements in the collection of individual address information.</p

Who follows the leader? Leadership heuristics and valence voting at the UK’s 2016 Brexit referendum

Recent accounts of British voting behaviour emphasise the importance of voters’ valence judgements on deciding which party to support: significant numbers of voters do not rely on their membership of particular socio-economic groups or ideological preferences; instead, they rely on evaluations of government performance to determine their vote. Part of this evaluation comes from ‘fast and frugal’ heuristics such as their evaluations of party leaders and other senior politicians. Such heuristics have been shown to be influential in the United Kingdom’s 2016 Brexit Referendum for example. We extend this research to show that the influence of leadership heuristics on individuals’ chances of voting for Brexit varied depending on evaluations of leading politicians associated with the Remain and the Leave campaigns. Moreover, feelings toward the party leaders had a larger influence on the referendum votes of those holding middle-of-the-road views on Europe than on those who were themselves either strongly pro- or anti-EU

Intersectionality and English voting behaviour: and was there a 2017 Youthquake?

Intersectionality is an increasingly popular concept across several social sciences but has received little explicit attention within British political science. This note introduces the concept, identifies some problems in its application to the study of voting behaviour, and illustrates its use by addressing the extent to which there was a ‘youthquake’ at the 2017 UK general election