The Effect of Climate Change on Land Use and Wetlands Conservation in Western Canada: An Application of Positive Mathematical Programming

This study examines the impact of climate change on land use in the Prairie Pothole Region of Western Canada, with particular emphasis on how climate change will impact wetlands. A multi-region Positive Mathematical Programming model calibrates land use in the area to observed acreage in 2006. Policy simulations for both climate effects as well as the effects of biofuel policies determine how climate change will affect land use and wetlands. Given that the model calibrates to observed acreage, the policies provide a realistic view of how land use might change from current levels, given the effects of climate change. Results indicate that climate change could decrease wetlands in this area by as much as 50 percent. The effect will be very different depending on whether or not the social benefits of wetlands are considered, and the effects of climate change on wetlands are heterogeneous across the Prairie Provinces.Positive mathematical programming; wetlands conservation; land use change; climate change; biofuels; Prairie pothole region

Climate Change Impacts on Waterfowl Habitat in Western Canada

climate change, wetlands

Bioeconomic modeling of wetlands and waterfowl in Western Canada: Accounting for amenity values

This study extends an original bioeconomic model of optimal duck harvest and wetland retention by bringing in amenity values related to the nonmarket (in situ) benefits of waterfowl plsi the ecosystem values of wetlands themselves. The model maximizes benefits to hunters as well as the amenity values of ducks and ecosystem benefits of wetlands, subject to the population dynamics. Results indicate that wetlands and duck harvests need to be increased relative to historical levels. Further, the socially optimal ratio of duck harvest to wetlands is larger than what has been observed historically. Including amenity values leads to a significant increase in the quantity of wetlands and duck harvests relative to models that focus only on hunting values.bioeconomic modelling, wetland protection, wildlife management, nonmarket values, Prairie pothole region, Environmental Economics and Policy, Q57, C61, Q25,

Bioeconomic modeling of wetlands and waterfowl in Western Canada: Accounting for amenity values

bioeconomic modelling; wetland protection; wildlife management; nonmarket values; Prairie pothole region

Energy Use, Income and Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Direct and Multi-Horizon Causality in Canada

This paper explores the causal relationship between energy, emissions and income in Canada for the period 1960- 2005. This study explores these relationships using the Toda Yamamoto approach in a multivariate framework including labour and capital as auxiliary variables. We also test the hypothesis of indirect or multi-horizon Granger non-causality between these variables, since causal effects may occur more than one-period-ahead, as is assumed by the standard Granger non-causality test. We find that there is bi-directional direct causality between income and energy use in Canada, and no other channels of causality between the three variables. However, indirect Granger non-causality testing shows that there is bi-directional causality between all variables in the system. This result is contrary to other results in the literature, and has different implications for energy and environmental policy. Keywords: Energy use; Greenhouse gas emissions; Multi-horizon Granger causality; Canada. JEL Classifications: C12; C22; Q48; Q5

T. brucei Infection Reduces B Lymphopoiesis in Bone Marrow and Truncates Compensatory Splenic Lymphopoiesis through Transitional B-Cell Apoptosis

African trypanosomes of the Trypanosoma brucei species are extracellular protozoan parasites that cause the deadly disease African trypanosomiasis in humans and contribute to the animal counterpart, Nagana. Trypanosome clearance from the bloodstream is mediated by antibodies specific for their Variant Surface Glycoprotein (VSG) coat antigens. However, T. brucei infection induces polyclonal B cell activation, B cell clonal exhaustion, sustained depletion of mature splenic Marginal Zone B (MZB) and Follicular B (FoB) cells, and destruction of the B-cell memory compartment. To determine how trypanosome infection compromises the humoral immune defense system we used a C57BL/6 T. brucei AnTat 1.1 mouse model and multicolor flow cytometry to document B cell development and maturation during infection. Our results show a more than 95% reduction in B cell precursor numbers from the CLP, pre-pro-B, pro-B, pre-B and immature B cell stages in the bone marrow. In the spleen, T. brucei induces extramedullary B lymphopoiesis as evidenced by significant increases in HSC-LMPP, CLP, pre-pro-B, pro-B and pre-B cell populations. However, final B cell maturation is abrogated by infection-induced apoptosis of transitional B cells of both the T1 and T2 populations which is not uniquely dependent on TNF-, Fas-, or prostaglandin-dependent death pathways. Results obtained from ex vivo co-cultures of living bloodstream form trypanosomes and splenocytes demonstrate that trypanosome surface coat-dependent contact with T1/2 B cells triggers their deletion. We conclude that infection-induced and possibly parasite-contact dependent deletion of transitional B cells prevents replenishment of mature B cell compartments during infection thus contributing to a loss of the host's capacity to sustain antibody responses against recurring parasitemic waves

Energy Use, Income and Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Direct and Multi-Horizon Causality in Canada

ABSTRACT: This paper explores the causal relationship between energy, emissions and income in Canada for the period 1960-2005. This study explores these relationships using the Toda Yamamoto approach in a multivariate framework including labour and capital as auxiliary variables. We also test the hypothesis of indirect or multi-horizon Granger non-causality between these variables, since causal effects may occur more than one-period-ahead, as is assumed by the standard Granger non-causality test. We find that there is bi-directional direct causality between income and energy use in Canada, and no other channels of causality between the three variables. However, indirect Granger noncausality testing shows that there is bi-directional causality between all variables in the system. This result is contrary to other results in the literature, and has different implications for energy and environmental policy

The Impact of climate change on the optimal management of wetlands and waterfowl

The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of Western Canada is characterized by productive cropland, grasslands, and millions of ‘potholes’ caused by receding glaciers. These potholes fill up with water and form wetlands habitat that is a rich and valuable ecosystem, and is one of the most productive waterfowl habitats in the world. However, the social benefits from wetland ecosystems are not paid to farmers, whose lands support wetlands, leading farmers in the PPR of Canada to drain wetlands. Wetlands habitat in the PPR is also threatened by climate change, due to potentially drier conditions, as well as biofuel policies that are aimed at mitigating climate change (which increase the value of grains relative to wetlands). This research is comprised of four empirical papers that study the optimal level of wetlands retention, as well as the effect of potential future climate change on wetlands. The methods employed include bioeconomic modeling, which maximizes an economic objective (utility of cropping, harvesting ducks) subject to biological constraints (wetlands and waterfowl retention), as well as positive mathematical programming to develop a land use model. In the first paper, a previous bioeconomic model of optimal duck harvest and wetland retention is updated and extended to include the nonmarket value of waterfowl and the ecosystem service and other amenity values of wetlands. Results indicate that wetlands and duck harvests need to be increased relative to historical levels. In the second paper, regression analysis is used to determine the casual effect of climate change on wetlands in the PPR. The model developed in the first paper is then adapted to solve the socially optimal levels of duck harvests and wetlands retention under current climate conditions and various climate change scenarios. Results indicate that the optimal number of wetlands to retain could decrease by as much as 38 percent from the baseline climate. In the third paper, the earlier bioeconomic model is extended to include cropping decisions. Further, the model is solved for disaggregated regions of the PPR. By including cropping decisions, this model can estimate the direct climate effects on wetlands and waterfowl management, as well as land use change due to biofuel policies. The model predicts that climate change will reduce wetlands by 35-56 percent from historic levels, with the majority of this change due to land use change. Wetlands loss is geographically heterogeneous, with losses being the largest in Saskatchewan. Finally, the fourth paper develops a multi-region Positive Mathematical Programming model that calibrates land use in the area to observed acreage in 2006. Policy simulations for both climate effects as well as the effects of biofuel policies determine how climate change will affect land use and wetlands. This model has the advantage of modeling the trade off between all major land uses in the area and is also solved on a region basis. Results indicate that climate change could decrease wetlands in this area by as much as 34 percent; the results are spatially heterogeneous.Graduat