Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background Diabetes is one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide, and affects people regardless of country, age group, or sex. Using the most recent evidentiary and analytical framework from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), we produced location-specific, age-specific, and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden from 1990 to 2021, the proportion of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in 2021, the proportion of the type 2 diabetes burden attributable to selected risk factors, and projections of diabetes prevalence through 2050. Methods Estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden were computed in 204 countries and territories, across 25 age groups, for males and females separately and combined; these estimates comprised lost years of healthy life, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; defined as the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]). We used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach to estimate deaths due to diabetes, incorporating 25 666 location-years of data from vital registration and verbal autopsy reports in separate total (including both type 1 and type 2 diabetes) and type-specific models. Other forms of diabetes, including gestational and monogenic diabetes, were not explicitly modelled. Total and type 1 diabetes prevalence was estimated by use of a Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, to analyse 1527 location-years of data from the scientific literature, survey microdata, and insurance claims; type 2 diabetes estimates were computed by subtracting type 1 diabetes from total estimates. Mortality and prevalence estimates, along with standard life expectancy and disability weights, were used to calculate YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs. When appropriate, we extrapolated estimates to a hypothetical population with a standardised age structure to allow comparison in populations with different age structures. We used the comparative risk assessment framework to estimate the risk-attributable type 2 diabetes burden for 16 risk factors falling under risk categories including environmental and occupational factors, tobacco use, high alcohol use, high body-mass index (BMI), dietary factors, and low physical activity. Using a regression framework, we forecast type 1 and type 2 diabetes prevalence through 2050 with Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and high BMI as predictors, respectively. Findings In 2021, there were 529 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 500–564) people living with diabetes worldwide, and the global age-standardised total diabetes prevalence was 6·1% (5·8–6·5). At the super-region level, the highest age-standardised rates were observed in north Africa and the Middle East (9·3% [8·7–9·9]) and, at the regional level, in Oceania (12·3% [11·5–13·0]). Nationally, Qatar had the world’s highest age-specific prevalence of diabetes, at 76·1% (73·1–79·5) in individuals aged 75–79 years. Total diabetes prevalence—especially among older adults—primarily reflects type 2 diabetes, which in 2021 accounted for 96·0% (95·1–96·8) of diabetes cases and 95·4% (94·9–95·9) of diabetes DALYs worldwide. In 2021, 52·2% (25·5–71·8) of global type 2 diabetes DALYs were attributable to high BMI. The contribution of high BMI to type 2 diabetes DALYs rose by 24·3% (18·5–30·4) worldwide between 1990 and 2021. By 2050, more than 1·31 billion (1·22–1·39) people are projected to have diabetes, with expected age-standardised total diabetes prevalence rates greater than 10% in two super-regions: 16·8% (16·1–17·6) in north Africa and the Middle East and 11·3% (10·8–11·9) in Latin America and Caribbean. By 2050, 89 (43·6%) of 204 countries and territories will have an age-standardised rate greater than 10%.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Iterative learning control of repetitive transverse loads in elastic materials

This paper develops a computational scheme to solve the optimal tracking control problem by repeated trials for distributed-parameter processes where an example from elasticity analysis in structural mechanics is used as motivation. An adaptive control scheme based on iterative learning control is used to develop an effective solution of underlying optimization task. The essential feature of the resulting approach is the efficient modelling and simulation of the distributed system under consideration using discretization based on the finite element method. Also to reduce the uncertainty of the model used for the control design, thus increasing the system performance, the iterative learning control scheme is extended by parameter estimation of mathematical model through application of one form of sequential experimental design. The related sensor location problem corresponds to situation where from among all potential sites where the sensors can be placed a subset must be selected that provide the most informative measurements to update the system parameter estimates. The new results are lustrated by an example from the area of smart materials.</p

Sensor Fault-Tolerant Control Design for Magnetic Brake System

The purpose of the paper is to develop an efficient approach to fault-tolerant control for nonlinear systems of magnetic brakes. The challenging problems of accurate modeling, reliable fault detection and a control design able to compensate for potential sensor faults are addressed. The main idea here is to make use of the repetitive character of the control task and apply iterative learning control based on the observational data to accurately tune the system models for different states of the system. The proposed control scheme uses a learning controller built on a mixture of neural networks that estimate system responses for various operating points; it is then able to adapt to changing working conditions of the device. Then, using the tracking error norm as a sufficient statistic for detection of sensor fault, a simple thresholding technique is provided for verification of the hypothesis on abnormal sensor states. This also makes it possible to start the reconstruction of faulty sensor signals to properly compensate for the control of the system. The paper highlights the components of the complete iterative learning procedure including the system identification, fault detection and fault-tolerant control. Additionally, a series of experiments was conducted for the developed control strategy applied to a magnetic brake system to track the desired reference with the acceptable accuracy level, taking into account various fault scenarios

Dynamic neural networks for actuator fault diagnosis: applicationto the DAMADICS benchmark problem

2nonemixedK. PATAN; PARISINI T.K., Patan; Parisini, Thoma

Nonlinear model predictive control of a boiler unit: A fault tolerant control study

This paper deals with a nonlinear model predictive control designed for a boiler unit. The predictive controller is realized by means of a recurrent neural network which acts as a one-step ahead predictor. Then, based on the neural predictor, the control law is derived solving an optimization problem. Fault tolerant properties of the proposed control system are also investigated. A set of eight faulty scenarios is prepared to verify the quality of the fault tolerant control. Based of different faulty situations, a fault compensation problem is also investigated. As the automatic control system can hide faults from being observed, the control system is equipped with a fault detection block. The fault detection module designed using the one-step ahead predictor and constant thresholds informs the user about any abnormal behaviour of the system even in the cases when faults are quickly and reliably compensated by the predictive controller

Experimentally verified multi-objective iterative learning control design with frequency domain specifications

This paper considers the design of multi-objective iterative learning control (ILC) schemes for discrete linear systems. In particular, a two step design approach is developed where the feedback and learning controllers are designed separately. The design procedures developed are able to impose performance specifications over selected frequency ranges to obtain the desired shapes of the sensitivity functions relevant to a particular example. This makes it possible to reject disturbances in specific frequency ranges and hence the desired performance specifications for both the transient response and error convergence speed can be achieved. All design computations required can be completed using linear matrix inequalities (LMIs). Preliminary experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the new design